$1/$2/$5, 9 handed, $500 effective. Villain is a rock and a winner in the game. I really don't know a whole lot else about him to be honest. Hero has a TAG reg image.

OTTH

Hero opens $20 LJ villain A 9 and only villain calls UTG in the straddle.

Flop ($43): 9 6 2. Villain checks, hero bets $15, villain raises to $50 and hero calls.

Turn ($143): A. Villain x, hero bets $50, and villain raises to $165. Hero?

I’d check behind on flop. This is a dynamic flop where the turn hurts you far more than it helps you. His double check raise is strong. If you call, I suspect he is shipping all rivers. I think I’m folding. I’m curious what the better players say.

Probably call and don't fold non-heart rivers. Villain could have AXhh. Maybe A6? 96s? for value which you beat.

As played, V remaining stack is $265 and the pot is $358. Fold or gii. I'd make an exploitive fold.

Flop - I'd bet more for value and protection.

Turn - I thinking Xing > betting small.
Not much value to be had with top 2. Most Rocks have a fold button, and don't play draws like this oop.
Can go for two streets on the river, maybe large if X to, as our hand might look more like a missed hearts.

If villain is a real rock I would have folded the flop. A real rock isn't check/raising unless he can beat A9. He has an over pair or a set most of the time, with an outside chance of 8h7h.

Once you hit two pair betting the turn again is obvious and folding to his second check/raise is also obvious. If villain doesn't have you beat he isn't a rock.

You didn't say if this is online, home game, or card room. I'll assume card room since you don't have info on V.

OTF, V's range is an over pair like TT, JJ, a set, with lesser probabilities of AX, or possibly SC like a 78, 89, T9 or even lower probability of A9s in or or way down the list, A9o.

OTT, of course the A9 gets eliminated. If he is a rock, there isn't a 2P hand he should be holding and check raising other than A9. The only overpair he could have held that gave him a stiffy on the turn is AA but his lack of action pre doesn't fit that hand. And the only SC that still makes sense if 78.

Even rocks can get excited enough to take a semi bluff lead when they have the double draw of FD and OESD. So his actions fit 78 fairly well.

If V flopped a set and is protecting against the possibility you are on a heart draw, the second x/r makes no sense. He would have led out on the turn because he has already shown fear of the FD. So I'm moving a set to a lesser prob.

As a rock, the second x/r makes no sense for him to have TT-KK because he would fear you called with AX.

I think I've talked myself into believing his is on a stone cold bluff, semi bluff 78, A9, or maybe a set and the set possibility is low enough that I have to risk my whole stack. with top 2P.

Have I over thought this?

Not really over thought this so much as not correctly adjusting to the player type.

A real rock has zero to negligible number of pure bluffs. The only semi-bluffs he gets this aggressive with are exactly 8h7h and even that he likely slows down on the turn. He wouldn't have raised flop with A9, that would be a call down hand because of the risk hero has an over pair.

All of that depends on him being a real rock though. If he actually straddled under the gun voluntarily that is a mark against him being a real rock. It can be easy to mistake a reasonably tight player for a rock in a generally loose game because he isn't in as many pots as the rest of the players.

QuadJ, there's a lot sixsevenoff didn't tell us about V and I'm factoring in the possibility he's not as rock-like as first thought. Since 67o doesn't know much about V, I'm going to assume they haven't shared much table time. Has V been a rock for the entire 30 or 60 or ?? minutes 67o has seen him because V was card dead, or because he's a nit?

Has 67o misread V's perception of 67o? Sometimes Vs go on tilt if they see a player "unfairly" winning too often. I've seen an OMC go nut job crazy, even calling for the floor because a super LAG was "cheating" by being so aggressive. Maybe V is generally a rock but believes 67o is too aggro so V's TPTK is a great x/r hand on the flop and it got even better on the turn?

Or sometimes a cigar really is just a cigar, and V's raises mean set, always mean set, and we should never doubt they mean set? There are plenty of players I would put in that category, but I've seen them play longer.

I've seen super nit OMCs not raise pre with AA in LP, thinking they were being tricky. So I don't assign a high probability, but it is possible that V had AA which would be explain a x/r on both flop and turn.

Without more knowledge of V, I'm committed to calling all the way with top two, even if I'm not real happy about it. I admit that I call too much.

I think I've double x/r twice in my life and both times I had a monster and I only did it because I knew the turn helped my opponent. I think at worst this V has A6hh

I agree with this line of thought, same thought with the double c/r. I think it's a set.

V has AXhh here most of the time. He could have a set but no chance I’m not stuffing it in here without a better read on V. GII.

I’d imagine a lot of people who say “fold” would have an incredibly tough time laying down top two on this board. Assuming he doesn’t have AA, that’s just 7 combos of sets, hero has 415 in his stack after the xr with 358 already out there.

If we give villain a value range of the 7 flopped set combos and Ah6h, that’s just 8 combos and we have 17% equity against it. If he has like 6 draw combos that he folds off facing a jam, it’s profitable to just jam it off. And that doesn’t even count if he’s occasionally overvaluing a hand like AQhh


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The more I've thought about this, something QuadJ said made more sense. V is not a real rock because he straddled, especially if this is card room live poker.

67o did a mini raise so as a straddler, V is obligated to call with a very wide range unless he is a super rock and we know he is not. So V didn't exactly choose to play a particular hand, the hand was chosen for him at random. Sure, it could contain 22 or 66 for the set, but it could just as easily contain 96o.

And it could also contain a pure bluff because V has gotten some wild ass notion that H is a chip bully picking on V's straddle and what better opportunity exists than now. In V's head, H did a mini-raise pre, followed it with a weak micro c-bet, as well as another micro turn bet. None of that means I'm criticizing 67o's bet sizing, but that V very well could be of that mindset. Lots of rec players think small bets = weak, so V thinks his bet sizes = the appearance of STRONG.

V could have that set, but there are too many other possibilities to not call down with top 2P.

Thank you very much for your responses.

I don't like x'ing flop because I want to get protection.

I didn't even think of jamming, but I actually do agree with you, Samo. All things considered this should be a shove or fold. I guess it's just me getting accustomed to playing live again.

QuadJ - what's your definition of a rock then? This guy's VPIP is 10%-15%...Are you saying that he has to have a VPIP like that, AND never bluff? I felt obligated to continue on the flop because I'm the only person I've ever seen downbet in these games, and I thought he could be using his image to his advantage and think I'm FoS with that sizing.

DEK - this is a home game. I have ~50 hours experience with villain, but he's never playing hands, so that's why I have very little information on him.

Villain didn't voluntarily straddle; straddle is mandatory in this game.

I real rock's VPIP is generally under 10%. Their opening range is generally between a 3% and 4% range, possibly creeping up a few more points if they are first in from LP. Their limp behind range is usually equally tight. Depending on the rock they may have no bluffs at all but usually have at least a few. Most will c-bet if they raised preflop sometimes and they may sem-bluff their huge draws. Most rocks have no barreling with air or check/raise bluffs.

If he is a winning player he probably isn't that ridiculously tight though. His EP opening range is probably 5% or less but it opens up more as he goes around and he will limp behind and call more with hands that have potential. Usually lots of pocket pairs because they will either flop a big hand or nothing.

Sorry I missed the mandatory straddle. 1/2/5, I get it now.

Based on that additional info, 50 hours of nittydom, a set it is and if he bluffed you, tough noogies, so what. Home game rec players are desperate not to get drawn out on so his first x/r fits the bill and he only tried it a second time because he knows you're action enough to bet into his weakness on the turn.

If he is a winner playing that super tight, it is only because everyone else is so flaming awful bad. You'll have plenty of chances to make back that money in easier situations.
I make a lot more money betting into bad players than I do by calling them.

I used to play in a home game with only one good player, me, and then a bunch of loose idiots each willing to give up $1 - 3K per night. I played fairly tight and made $500 - $2000 a night with winning nights more than 90% of the time. The money flows pretty easy in those games and it didn't take a lot of good hands to get there. The problem was it taught me a lot of lessons that don't apply in a card room where almost everyone is better and some are a lot, lot, lot better.

OK, it is too late for me to edit my last message. So that I don't sound like I have an exaggerated opinion of myself, I need to clarify...

In that home game there was one good player (who was not me), me, and the rest loose idiots.