Quote:
Originally Posted by Poker g
As the type of "young player" that you mention repeatedly above, I can tell you that I absolutely love playing against somebody of your mindset. And you are very easy to pinpoint at the table. I'm not sure why you are negatively slighted towards young players, but I can guarantee you that most of these young players have a better win rate than you
Oh, NO in the long run. In the short run, maybe if he lives in mother basement for free and have the cards run over his head. But not as a professional hard working man down there in the trenches along with us "the blue working class man", like the
Joey Knish the grinder from "
Rounders" movie. That type of player that pays his life from playing cards every day. He's the man I'm talking about.
In live no-limit a competent working player will make up to 10-11bb/hour over a large sample size. I know exactly how to measure win rate. yes, in couple month you can go broke or be about 20bb/hour but that is not sustainable. 10bb/hour is the most accurate number.
1/2 game = $20/hour
1/3 game = $25/hour
2/5 game = $40/hour
5/10 game = $80/hour
10/20 game = $175/hour with the best conditions in the easiest games
At least this is the standard measuring unit for Vegas pros. Anybody that tells you differently is lying. The bigger the game the win rate tend to slide a little down to self adjust to an equilibrium. The best masters of the game cannot go over these limits of income.
And here is what's gonna be going on with a great player:
You have a chance to play a big pot about three times per hour. You flop a set, have the nut flush draw+pair, hit your straight. Most of these times a big pot does not pan out because the opponent doesn't have a hand. It takes two big hands for a big pot. Now, every other hour or so, you play a big pot again. You are ahead when you put your money in. You know you don't always win. Some of these you win and some rare occasion, you lose.
Now, the bad part is that when you go card dead, when the draws go in the muck, AK misses 2 out of 3 times, your stack and profits slowly melt away until you hit your average theoretical hourly rate.
You can play TAG and this is what you get, three chances an hour and one big pot every other hour. You can play LAG and increase the chances, but your ups and downs be a lot bigger and based upon our local Vegas pros experience the results will be the same if you can read opponent's hand and soul, else, worse. Taking into account the sometime long dry months, being card dead, and lock of 300bb deep stacks or more in every game, we can say with certainty 10-11bb/hour in smaller game and a little less in the big blinds game.
Almost all young players including yourself suffer from a common malady – they overestimate the effect of luck in the long run and underestimate luck in the short run. While anyone who is losing after 500 hours is probably kidding themselves when they blame their bad cards, because it is much more likely they are not playing well enough to win, on the other hand, even the best players in the world have occasional losing streaks overall. I expect to lose about one out of every three sessions. Now I’ve heard it said that the successful person should have enough confidence so that he assumes that he will win like 80-90% of the games he plays. But that is silly. What he should assume is that he will play his best every time he plays. However, even perfect play combined with GTO for a human player will result in a win rate of only about 66-70% in all but the easiest games.
Anyway, I suspect you believe and think that live poker is too much like TV poker. It's not. Good poker is dull and predictable. Much more like bingo than you think. You're not going to make money by making slick plays and elaborate bluffs. You do make money by playing solid aggressive smart, in position, and value betting solid hands. You should be happy to fold when they tell you you are beat. You need cards, flops and smart plays to make in NL.
This what a good professional is making with a lot of hard work in the process.
Last edited by outdonked; 07-20-2017 at 03:18 PM.