1/2/5, $1.6k effective, hero only has about three hours experience with villain but my early read is that he's a break even-ish LAG. Villain has never opened this small before. Hero probably has a TAG/nitty image to villain.

OTTH

Hero has the straddle this hand UTG, villain opens +1 $12, pretty unknown but seems tight passive calls OTB, hero 3 bets $75 A Q and only villain calls.

Flop ($165): A J 6. Hero bets $55, villain calls.

Turn ($275): 8. This is where I'm not entirely sure about my sizing and am equally curious about here and the river, but this hand isn't interesting enough to do a PAHWM. Hero bets $160 and villain calls.

River ($595): 6. Hero? What size do you use here and why?

What do we think +1 is calling flop and turn with that we beat?

With such little experience it's hard to come to with a concrete range, but all worse Axs and maybe gutshots

turn sizing is fine imo. I would bet/fold the river for $300

We can consider bigger on turn w/ range + nut advantage, along with the fact that the turn card doesn’t change anything.

We can also big bet river. I don’t expect LAG to show up with AK often so beyond a sandbag, we’re likely against Ax whose kicker doesn’t play.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I would make a decent river bet, 300-400, because A rag just improved to a chop vs a lot of Ax. Like you I'm unsure about turn sizing in spots where we have a huge range advantage and protection is barely a concern

Is this game 7/8-handed?

+1 small open, then call 15 bbs pre should narrow opponent range to top single %. Once he calls flop with someone behind, I think his range is something like AX/JJ/66/QJs/JTs.

OTT - we might get value from a couple of ATs combos, perhaps a few more AXs. Still, I think I'd X most of the time, and bet ~40% PSB the rest.

I'd go smaller pre, and large OTF.

The game is 9 handed. Also, we are HU otf. So are you x-f river, Samo? I think he's wider than you do, and I doubt he has JJ given the tiny open size.

I do agree that we almost certainly have the best hand, I mean the only hands that really beat us are one combo of A6s, two combos of A8s, one combo of AJs one combo of 66, MAYBE three combos of 88? The question I have on betting on the bigger side is - do you expect bad Ax to pay off a large river bet? I do expect him to have 14 combos of the rest of Axs, but I'm concerned that if we go too big we get into a spot where it's borderline if we're good over 50% when we get called.

Villain's hand looks exactly like AK.

We're getting 3 streets from what?

I'm checking flop.

As played, I'm x f river. Nothing we beat is going to bet and everything we lose to is.

I don’t think 88 or 66 open for this size often. Given that and his flop call and I think we’re more likely to be up against hands with decent showdown value that we beat which makes me want to bet turn.

I don’t want to read too much into preflop but to me this screams either offsuit Broadway or suited mediocre (T8, A5, etc)

I agree if we were to x, it's an easy x-f, but I disagree about not being able to get 3 streets.

How can you put villain on precisely AK? I doubt it, given pre flop action.

Why not? I would expect villain to place the same amount of value in middle pocket pairs as he does with the hands you listed.

Maybe you’re right, I assumed most lags would want to get it hu while they’re usually ahead

The sizing in general is really weird and never seen before, so we can't deduce a whole lot from it, but I'd have to assume it means it's a medium strength hand

V could open then call your 3-bet in position with JJ or AK AQ AJ AA KK
so what's a bet targeting A10 A9 ; and would V call 3 streets with that against you ?

sure the river pairing the board looks better but it really doesn't change anything either we were ahead or not.

had you bet the turn bigger I would elect to check/call river

as played I hate a bet fold line but would bet $275-$300 here

Why would you x-c the river if we bet bigger ott? We'd probably be good 0% of the time.

You say you hate bet-fold, so are you calling a raise?

My bad OTF, BTN folded to pre 3B.

If that's your range for him, then bet river on the smaller side, < 50%.

I'd still X, b/c I'm having trouble find a worse hand that called an incremental 12.5 bb 3B pre, then called flop & turn. Might call his river, though unlikely since a worse AX usually X back.

not calling a raise

if we bet river as played , we get called by very little that we beat
so If we bet and get raised we fold
if we bet and get called we lose most of the time

if we check/ call with the same $300 we were going to bet; we get to let the LAG try to bluff us or value bet a worse hand.
if V checks back that's ok too

the small turn bet kept V in very very wide so dangle some rope see if he hangs himself

if we bet turn bigger than checked the river than as you said we narrow his range so its a soul read.

my 2 cents worth

great posts by the way, like to see how different folks approach the same hands and their thoughts.

I mean the pre raise sizing is so goofy and based off live experience in general, this seems to never be a strong hand. My best guess is that it's a bunch of medium strength hands and he's stationing the 3 bet.

I agree that if we check, we have to check-fold.

Hey thank you.

We should never be betting the river if we expect to lose most of the time. I disagree, though, I really think you're underestimating how stationary LLSNL players are. I never expect them to fold worse Ax versus a 1/3 river size, which is exactly why I phrased the river as how much should we go, and not what should we do. I was wondering if people think he'll call a big bet with worse Ax. I also don't expect villain to ever value own himself, and he has very few bluffs, if any.

We'll definitely value own ourselves from time to time, but as Bart Hanson says "if you never value own yourself, you aren't value betting enough."