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Old 07-02-2014, 02:18 AM   #1
LCposter
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1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Table dynamics: Generally loose passive 9-handed 1/2 game.

Opponent reads:
Villian 1 (BB), $350. 60-year-old, came from another table with that stack, has been at my table for 2 orbits. Generally tight, 2 hands have gone to showdown. Hand 1, he played fishy against me: I raised AKo to 10 from button, he called, we checked down a board run out of 89T5J, he surprisingly tabled K3o. Hand 2, he played well against a LAG, trapping and getting max value by check-raising river on a non-threatening A-high board with AJ.

Villian 2 (UTG+2), $120. 25-year-old, TAG, playing straightforward and a little scared.

Hero (BTN), $365. Mid-30s, playing LAG, raising a lot preflop and stealing with c-bets or winning with good hands at showdown (TPGK, overpairs, etc.)

The hand:
UTG limps, folds to UTG+2 who makes it 12. Folds to BTN, Hero calls with 88. SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop ($49, 4-handed): K85

BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets 21, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn ($112, 3-handed): T

BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets 50, BB calls, UTG+2 folds.

River ($212, 2-handed): 4

BB bets $100, Hero ?

Folding is out of the question, but we have to decide between calling or shoving the remaining $167. Thoughts on all streets appreciated, but primarily the river. Thanks for your time.
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Old 07-02-2014, 02:22 AM   #2
ArsenalGunners2
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I'm def raising this flop for sure. No llsnl players are folding K here.

I'd bet bigger in turn as well.

As played probably just call here given the line you took
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Old 07-02-2014, 02:25 AM   #3
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Hand looks great, I'm shoving river all day erry day
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Old 07-02-2014, 02:37 AM   #4
Shuffle
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Bet a lot more on the turn, easily $75+.

As played just call. What do you expect him to:
1. c/c flop
2. c/c turn
3. b/c river

with that you beat?
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Old 07-02-2014, 03:16 AM   #5
slimshady1999
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Bet a lot more on the turn, easily $75+.

As played just call. What do you expect him to:
1. c/c flop
2. c/c turn
3. b/c river

with that you beat?
If he beats nothing, then river is a fold. As played I just flat river.
I would bet $65 to price out 76 and keep in Kx. $75+ is way too much considering 76 is the only draw, we're shallow so can easily shove river, we don't want to scare him away, and we want to keep in Kx
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Old 07-02-2014, 04:02 AM   #6
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Quote:
Originally Posted by slimshady1999 View Post
If he beats nothing, then river is a fold.
I don't think you read my post carefully enough.

Also, there are combo draws besides 6-7.
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Old 07-02-2014, 07:30 AM   #7
blankblankobv
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

As played just call on the river. To me the fact that he bet means either he has 76 or is making a blocking bet with Kx. Since you only bet 50 on the turn I'd think he'd bet less than 100 as a blocking bet. If he bet 50 then maybe you should raise, but just call the 100.

It's hard to fault you too much for your line given the dry flop and the short-stacked original raiser. But I would prefer a raise on the flop and a larger bet on the turn. I think people often level themselves into thinking a flop raise indicates weakness, whereas they can 'believe' someone more if they slowplay the flop and raise the turn.
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Old 07-02-2014, 07:44 AM   #8
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$80-100 OTT and you don't have thus problem.

Turn bet sizing is your only mistake.

As played... Shove.
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Old 07-02-2014, 08:52 AM   #9
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

I should have stated in OP that this villian is definitely folding 76o pre to a raise, and usually 76s too. Even if he made it to the turn, I am pretty confident he's folding all 76 other than 76cc once the second club rolls off.

That is why I kept the turn sizing small. If we can heavily discount 76, does that make river an easy shove?
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Old 07-02-2014, 09:40 AM   #10
blankblankobv
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Quote:
Originally Posted by LCposter View Post
I should have stated in OP that this villian is definitely folding 76o pre to a raise, and usually 76s too. Even if he made it to the turn, I am pretty confident he's folding all 76 other than 76cc once the second club rolls off.

That is why I kept the turn sizing small. If we can heavily discount 76, does that make river an easy shove?
Yes, but only if you're pretty sure.

Given that he called a raise with K3o I think calling with 76 in a multi-way pot is pretty believable.

So, I guess I don't share your confidence, but you would know better having played with him.

The other thing is that he may not call your shove with KJ/KQ, and if he had KT wouldn't he often have raised the turn? Which means you have to be pretty confident he wouldn't have 76 to risk a raise that may not get you value anyway.

That said, if you could be 100% sure he doesn't have 76 then a shove becomes absolutely mandatory. You don't have to be 100% sure to make a shove correct, of course; it's just that 76 is the only hand that really makes sense with Villain's line.
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Old 07-02-2014, 11:49 AM   #11
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
I don't think you read my post carefully enough.

Also, there are combo draws besides 6-7.
What combo draws are there? King of clubs is on board so he can't have Kxcc and we block 8xcc. 76 is the only real draw on the flop. He would have to be really loose and call with a gutshot or 5xcc on flop to have a draw on turn. Even if those are in his range, they are a tiny portion of his range compared to his Kx combos
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Old 07-03-2014, 03:04 AM   #12
LCposter
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Haven't gotten more replies for a while, so posting results.

I decided he doesn't have 76 often and put him on AK, K8s, K5s, KT, or 55. I think he folds AK to a raise but calls with the rest of the hands so I shoved. He thought for 5-10 seconds, knowing 76 is def in my range, but eventually shrug called with KK. Well played, sir, that hand didn't even cross my mind.

The guy stuck around at our table a while longer, winning several pots with his trapping check/call & check/raise lines. After a 2/5 seat opened he moved over and I saw he won a bunch more money over there.

Seeing him win is making me reconsider my game a bit. Trapping is easy enough to exploit (opponents can just check back everything and bomb when draws hit, whether it is for value or a bluff). But in today's aggro games with lots of bluffing and thin value betting, I think villians don't adjust correct and trapping may need to be a bigger part of our strategy.
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Old 07-03-2014, 04:05 AM   #13
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Believe it or not, you can stack someone set over set without slow playing.
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Old 07-03-2014, 01:14 PM   #14
blankblankobv
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Re: 1/2, $350 effective, flopped set facing river donk

Villain played this hand horribly imo. He almost didn't stack you which is a disaster when you have set over set. And flatting pre with so many players is ridiculous.

Slowplaying/trapping more may or may not add to your winrate (I prefer being aggressive on the flop to get money in early in the hand), but this hand is not an example of why it's good.
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