Game: This is a home game, but online due to quarantine. We've been playing now for 6 weeks straight, generally 2-3 nights per week, so we all know each other's styles pretty well at this point. The game itself has played very deep, with a few $2K wins and many, many $1K+ losses. It doesn't directly impact this hand, but just wanted to give some background. All players are in their 30s here.

V1: UTG+1 $400 A solid player at the table. He generally has it when he bets, but can bluff occasionally. I've never seen him run any sort of multi-street bluff though, or even large semi-bluffs. It's not that he's overly tight (he can sometimes overvalue top pair type hands), but if it's going to the river and he's betting big, he always has TPTK+.

Hero: HJ $600 At the start of this whole thing, probably the best player at the table. I think 75% of people didn't even know what position meant, let alone why it was important. Given the intense work people have put in, plus me helping them out a lot (it's a home game, I don't want to run over everyone), my edge has come down significantly. Either way, V1 would recognize me as having an edge on him, but V2 probably doesn't think about me this way.

V2: CO $800 An interesting tale of two cities player, and she admits it. Literally knew what hands beat what, and that's about it, so she used to lose a lot of money. Given quarantine, she has spent significant time studying each week and has improved tremendously. She still has some leaks of calling down light, improper bet sizing (especially on bluffs), but otherwise is much better

OTTH: 8 players at the table. UTG (irrelevant villain) limps $2, V1 limps, Hero limps with 55 (sometimes I raise here, but I've been a bit aggressive tonight and hand is marginal enough that I'm okay just limping behind instead of needing to raise to at least $16 to get it down to 1-2 OTF). V2 raises to $8. Button, blinds, UTG fold. V1 now x/r to $16.

This immediately set off some alarm bells in my head, given he's only limp reraising here with QQ+ and AKs given his pretty tight play. He's not the maniac doing that here with 67s. However, given stack sizes, plus I am 100% sure weaker V2 is coming along with a higher stack, I call. V2 calls behind.

Flop: $55 57K

Bingo! V1 oddly checks here. I lead out for $35. V2 immediately min-raises to $70. V1 check-raises to $170. Hero?

My hand analysis at this point, given the limp/3B PF and then X/3B flop is that V1 has only two possible hands: AA and KK. He can't have AK and I don't see him check-raise 3 betting with just top pair. QQ is also obviously out. I also still have V2 to act behind me, but I'm not overly concerned about her unless she has exactly 77.

Does he ever do this with AA, or is this so obviously KK given the X/3B flop that we need to let this go? In a 100BB this is an auto shove for me and just say "sigh cooler" if he does have KK. But 200BB with the exact way he played this hand, I struggled with this one.

Thoughts?

His range is KK, AA and AK. I think best is to just call flop and not fold at any point. Give a chance for V2's money to get in there.

I would be reluctant to outrule AK from the range of V1 as described. It sounds entirely plausible for someone known for overvaluing top pair to have AK here.

V2's line is very strange. I tend to agree that you shouldn't worry about her too much here - I'm sure she's improved a lot in the last few weeks but she's still basically a beginner. Sure, she could have 77, but if so, so be it.

I would call here to keep V2 interested - shoving is fine also and no, folding is not a valid option IMO. I expect V1 to have exactly AA a large percentage of the time.

NOT A SOLID PLAYER. Get it in. Especially vs V2 who is still learning how to play aggressively.

There's a decent chance the girl has AK and the guy has AA. So the question is: if you jam $600, can the girl ever get away from AK? If she can, then flatting is better. If she always stacks off AK here, then rip it in imo.

Maybe a third of the time it's going to be set over set and that's just bad luck when it happens, but there's enough AK/AA in both of their ranges that we have to just go with it.

Also I'm not even the slightest bit scared of the flush or straight. A heart on the turn is irrelevant for you, except that it might slow them down.

Normally, I’d think about folding to a 3b pre with the original raiser behind, but w/e.

I might consider X/C flop given V1 description and range. He’s likely betting AA/AK, so getting 3 streets of value from the weaker part of his range seems ambitious.

As played, I think it’s close given the raiser behind. Hands like Ah5h/6h5h/5h4h are blocked. There are 3 combos of AhAx that might take this line (V1). Determining V2 range/line would be a key decision point.

Too much AA, AK and flush draws out there. Not only am I not folding, I’m 4b stuffing it in before a heart kills my action. If the have 77 or KK so be it.

Despite your description, these players sound terrible. You can't fold, it's not a fist-pump, but you have to get it in no question about it

People who min raise and limp like that show up with bad ***** way too often

No, you can’t fold.

You guys are playing 2-3 nights per week for weeks on end and you’re concerned about letting someone hold the money for a bit? <- that’s the worst case scenario

Thanks so far everyone. The consensus seems to be to get it in. Is there a stack size here where you're being more cautious about getting it in? If we're $700 deep, and I reraise to $400 there and V1 shoves, we're calling? If so, then this to me seems like a hand we will never fold.

It isn't just the stack size - it's your opponents. Both are playing weird and like absolute beginners. One IS a rank beginner and you have said the other overvalues top pair. You can't fold a set to them here - if they have you beat, good for them. I've folded flopped sets before, shallower than this, against specific opponents. It is not a good option here IMO.

To answer your specific question, jt's still a snap get it in at $700 (the extra hundred makes very little difference). If everyone has ~1200, you make it 400 in this spot and see two shoves, then you can maybe consider folding.

I see getting it all in on a set/flush/straight on the flop and getting it all in pre with Kings as very similar. Getting it all in right away always is really not far off optimal strategy ever.

The question is if you're going to choose a different strategy and fold or call in some portion of these situations (and not for trapping, but because you believe you are behind), are you really that good of a reader of the player and situation to do this in a profitable manor? For myself, I'm pretty sure I'm not that good, and I suspect that's true for nearly all LLSNL players.

Yup.

And OP I like how you played preflop. When two guys limp, I really only want to be raising when I feel good about making it a big size. Besides that, just take position deep and try to flop something cool.

But absolutely need to underrep your hand as played. If he has KK you’re cooked and move on with your life. If he has AA/AK, don’t let his “see where I’m at” raise off the hook.

Having 5h is pretty good because it improves your equity even against his KK (4.34% eq without, 8.89% with) and lowers his chance of backdooring it if you are against a hand with the Ah). And obv once you get past those 3 combos, this guy is smoked.

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How aggressively does V1 play AK preflop? Does he always raise with it? Does he always 3-bet with it? Does he always 4-bet with it? Or does he mix it up?

Continuing with that line, how does he play AA? Does he always stack off with it postflop?

The answer to those questions has a big impact on my decision making here. Some people play AK very passively.

I really think people are over-thinking this. Re my post above, if your strategy is just always to get a set in on the flop it's not much off optimal strategy, and if you have an alternative strategy, can you profitably read the situation for the ~10% of times you have a set when you think it's a tougher decision? And even if you can, I'm not sure the edge this gives you is anything significant compared to all the other ways we can improve our game.

Agree
1) I have a set
2) I can easily more value hands for V that I’m ahead of (AA, AK, AXhh) than I’m behind (KK, 77)
3) ship it.

there was a hand onetime on poker after dark where 2 guys had a full house and one guy was thinking of laying it down in the river. i can still see the play by play by gus hanson and i think howard lederer was one of them. so in this case i say put it in and do a matt berkey. "good luck us"

Results?