DO ALL THE MATH IN YOUR HEAD AS IF THIS IS IN GAME.

1/2

V1 never seen before, literally played less than 5 hands before this hand happened, young, black, $302

V2 is 35-40 yo white guy, seen bluffing at small pots, nothing out of line in bigger pots although I table changed about 45 minutes prior so not much data, $465

Hero came to table with about $350, in a hand against another reg I c/r'd a turn and ended up with a backdoor flush. The reg's turn range was polar, weighted towards air just because of the few combos possible to have a nutted hand, so I was bluffing with equity as my backup and hit the flush. Might look like a complete LAG to these guys though because of that. Covers

6-handed right now

Hero has KJ and raises $15 from UTG or UTG+1. This isn't usually in my EP range but we were shorthanded and most guys were fit or fold post, and $12 was not getting HU. Random calls, Random calls, V1 calls, V2 calls from SB.

Flop ($71 after rake) K Q 6

V2 donks out $20, Hero raises for value and with my equity to $65, Randoms fold, V1 cold 3-bets to $200, back to V2 who shoves $287.

It becomes a math problem at this point. V2 is ai and V1 is definitely ready to get ai, so it's as if the pot is (V2's postflop ai amount) + (V1's postflop ai amount) + (the preflop money) + (the $65 I've put in otf) + (what I'd need to call to cover V1's ai). And with that pot sitting there, I'd need to call the difference between V1's total and the $65 I've already put in otf.

(In reality I could just call, the ai from V2 didn't reopen the betting, but if I'm playing this hand it's with 2 streets to come, I'm not mining to just the turn for a heart.)

I think it's easy to range V1 on just sets, he's never doing this with the nfd. And V2 give any 2-pair possibility. I'm not putting sets in V2's range because V1 only has sets and I have a K, so sets for another person aren't really likely enough to consider.

I'm basically asking you to think this through without paper/pen/pencil/calculator, as if you're at the table. Figure out the price on Hero's money and what equity you think Hero has. The tricky part is factoring in when flushes get nullified by a boat or boats hit ott and Hero is drawing to just a 2-outer otr (i.e. turn 6, river K).

The price on our money can be done perfectly with paper/pencil. This thread is part how well do you estimate the price on your money in game without any math tools. And also how well do you estimate your equity without PokerStove in a situation you've never been in before.

Post what you've estimated/calculated to be a) Hero's price on his money and b) equity against those ranges I've given.

The top part is wrong and V2 has $287?.

How are u ranging v1 on sets? Maybe 6-6 but KK or QQ hed 3! pre. Id put him on KQ before a set, even AK is possible

Im shoving here. I know that doesnt answer your math question but thats my end decision

I may be able to help with the mental math for the probability.
Assume V1 has 66 and V2 has KQ (based on ranges you gave). You have 9 cards to hit your flush, V1 has 4 cards to hit a fh on turn 7 cards on river. Gorilla math would say you hit your flush 36% of the time, V1 hits his FH 22% of the time. In my head I would round the 36% to 35%, then the 22% to 20%, so you would just have to take 80% (4/5ths) of your 35% (1 fifth of 35 is 7) to give yourself 28% to hit your flush without the board pairing.

Was I close? (didn't check on a calculator yet).

V1 and V2 should be reversed in the description. V2 is the black kid and V1 is the older white guy.

So you can narrow his hand to only 66, that's a good thing. I think with AK he flats most often, then folds more often than he cold 3-bets.

I think you have 30%-34% equity here. Looks like you have at least 3/1. Are you putting Ah10h in his range if not it seems like a call.

Doing this all in my head and based on your reversal of the description and stack sizes of Vs in OP

I'm viewing the flop 3bet as essentially AI, as OP stated. So we have to "call" (shove) $385 to GII vs both opponents, so we're getting slightly more than 2-1.

pair+2nd nfd, getting ~2-1. We need ~30% equity, of which some is cannibalized by FHs and the outside possibility of a higher FD (I dont believe it can be completely discounted)

Our K, the high likelihood of a set of 6s, and another 2 pair combo leave a heart heavy deck OTT and OTR. I think it's closer to a fold than most may realize at first glance, but I would ultimately call, especially in game. If its a mistake its not that big of one.

Fold

I'm not being sarcastic, I love that you said that. That's what I thought I should have done after I shoved and saw the turn and river brick. I was pissed off the entire drive home (which is still an hour if I'm going 90+ mph).

What I'm getting on my money is 30.6%.

I EquiLab'd it and I actually had 33% equity. V1 and V2 had each other's boat outs, I also had a blocker to them boating. So my flush wasn't too vulnerable to boats. This was a profitable shove. Not hugely profitable, but +EV.

Yeah, I'm kinda confused, but if the side pot is against the 2 pair, then you have 48% equity in that and 33.5% in the main pot, so I could believe that you have enough equity on your money to make this profitable, but just barely.

But if the 2 pair guy can ever have the NFD, then you are absolutely crushed, so if you are even only 95% sure he cannot have the NFD, this tips your EV to the negative side.

But mainly I said fold just because we are not making a big mistake either way (assuming your read is 100% correct), so I will tend to err on the side of caution here and fold.

*Oh sorry, meant to say that I HAVE been in situations where I knew Vs range 100%, didn't mean to imply above that 100% certainty was impossible, just meant I would have to be positive of his range here, fo sho.

^ Yeah I used to take the caution side of things in big decisions. Now I don't care about the variance, if you're rolled (not that I really am) I don't see why you wouldn't want to take the high variance route, it makes no difference in terms of EV. It went through my mind that I can fold, leave, run out of the room so I don't see the turn and river cards hit and be sick when the 3h/4s hit the board, and record a +$140 session. But I don't make decisions just to record wins anymore.

Even though flatting my $65 is so often the nfd, I think that's what white guy V does. I can't see him putting a buy-in out there MW on a draw, he's that type of player.

2.5 to 1 on your money. About 32% equity.