Villain 1 (550$) UTG: Typical 1/2 "bad" reg... Limps a lot, pays too much with draws, doesn't size bets well, etc. Isn't horrible though, and hasn't gotten out of line at all.
Villain 2 (62$) CO: Casual passive player, just playing for fun with a friend at the table.
Hero (650$) BB: Tight, straightforward. Was called a "robot" a few hands prior to this one due to his fit or fold style of play.
OTTH:
5 players limp, SB folds and Hero checks in the BB with 6
6
.
Flop (12$): 2
3
6
Hero bets 10$, all 5 players call.
Turn (65$): Q
Hero bets 50$,
UTG raises to 265$, 2 players fold, CO shoves for his remaining 50$ and BTN folds. Hero?
Thought process:
We need to call 215$ into a pot of 430$, so we're getting 2:1, which means we need 33% equity to profitably call. At this point, Hero put UTG on a range of 22, 33, 45, and *maybe* some weird 2 pair like 23 or Q6/Q3/Q2 a very slim amount of the time. QQ is out of the picture for sure. The thing is, although the only hand that beats us is 45, there are 16 combos of it (yes, he would limp 45o UTG), but only 6 total combos of 22 and 33. Very doubtful that he raises 2 pair like this enough of the time to consider all of its combos.
Then again, worst case scenario (against 45), we still have 23% equity...
Assuming he has 45 and folds to a river shove if the board pairs, and shoves on any other river card (~275$ left),
OR
he has 22/33 and calls a river shove on a paired board, but checks behind on any other river card...
What's the plan here?
I'll post results later if you guys want.