Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? 1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold?

08-20-2015 , 12:49 PM
Villain 1 (550$) UTG: Typical 1/2 "bad" reg... Limps a lot, pays too much with draws, doesn't size bets well, etc. Isn't horrible though, and hasn't gotten out of line at all.

Villain 2 (62$) CO: Casual passive player, just playing for fun with a friend at the table.

Hero (650$) BB: Tight, straightforward. Was called a "robot" a few hands prior to this one due to his fit or fold style of play.

OTTH:

5 players limp, SB folds and Hero checks in the BB with 66.

Flop (12$): 236
Hero bets 10$, all 5 players call.

Turn (65$): Q
Hero bets 50$, UTG raises to 265$, 2 players fold, CO shoves for his remaining 50$ and BTN folds. Hero?

Thought process:

We need to call 215$ into a pot of 430$, so we're getting 2:1, which means we need 33% equity to profitably call. At this point, Hero put UTG on a range of 22, 33, 45, and *maybe* some weird 2 pair like 23 or Q6/Q3/Q2 a very slim amount of the time. QQ is out of the picture for sure. The thing is, although the only hand that beats us is 45, there are 16 combos of it (yes, he would limp 45o UTG), but only 6 total combos of 22 and 33. Very doubtful that he raises 2 pair like this enough of the time to consider all of its combos.
Then again, worst case scenario (against 45), we still have 23% equity...

Assuming he has 45 and folds to a river shove if the board pairs, and shoves on any other river card (~275$ left),
OR
he has 22/33 and calls a river shove on a paired board, but checks behind on any other river card...

What's the plan here?

I'll post results later if you guys want.
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-20-2015 , 01:00 PM
Ugly. This looks so much like 45, maybe even 45cc. I agree QQ is unlikely. You also have CO in there who could have 45, so that pot might be gone regardless. Would he bet an A-high flush draw with a pair (Ac3c)? Would he just call 22 or 33 on the flop?

Do you have any specific hands he's played? Has he raised this big before? What did he have?

Without more info, I'd need a soul read. I'm not sure it's correct, but in game I think I call -- although the best options are probably fold or shove
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-20-2015 , 01:16 PM
Thanks for the response. I don't this he would raise any of his nut-ish range on the flop since it's so dry (the only possible draws are gutshots, in which case only a 4 or a 5 on the turn complete the draws).

I also don't think he would raise a flush draw like this, he would most likely just call or even fold, since I represent a huge hand betting into 5 players after they all called the flop, especially given my table image.

I wasn't too scared about CO, he could seriously have Qx here, a pair+gutshot, a flush draw, or a PP, so 45 is such a small portion of his range.

Earlier in the night, UTG did make a few big raises with big hands (for example, he check-shoved TT on a 23T flop, but it wasn't a huge overbet like this). Other than that, he just had big hands at the right times and got it in some way or another.
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-20-2015 , 01:23 PM
The fact that when he's raised he's had big hands and the fact that your table image must be really strong, I don't see his doing this with less than 45. I guess it's just a math question then, which I'm not good at.
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-20-2015 , 01:23 PM
I think I nit fold this and take a note since we get to see his hand with v2 allin.

Reasoning is this villain is experienced at limped pots, he plays small connectors a lot. Therefore he should see straight is possible and that your betting represents great strength. I just dont think he does this with sets we beat or 2-pair.

I cant be bothered to work out the ev of calling or shoving I guess they are both less than zero but happy to be proved wrong...
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-20-2015 , 02:17 PM
I fold too. We don´t have odds to draw against a straight, and if he has QQ we are so ****ed.
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-20-2015 , 03:53 PM
Clear fold. Vs line is just always the nuts, not even QQ, just 45 only that smashes over the top of your bet/bet into 5 people and there were still 3 players to act. I suppose a complete fool could do this with limped OP or some NFD, but I'm still not calling without more info. At least you got to see SD and can adjust

The straggler behind is wider, more FD stuff.

I don't hate ck turn into 5 callers, but bet was fine obv
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-21-2015 , 01:33 PM
Thanks guys. On reddit, everyone told me to call/shove, whereas here the general consensus is a fold. The more I think about it, the more I lean towards a fold as well.

Anyway, results:

I called...

River: 4

Villain shoves, I snap fold.

Villain shows 45, CO mucks.
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-22-2015 , 08:03 AM
In your face reddit
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote
08-22-2015 , 03:31 PM
in a limped pot I can see a fold.

I'm never folding this in a raised pot. That is why pre you could of bumped this up to $15 to thin the field, but still - as played meh.

I'm probably calling if he only raised to $150 as we have odds to draw. his raise being so huge in a limped pot is defiantly frightening.
1/2 2nd nuts vs HUGE turn raise, can we ever fold? Quote

      
m