8:30 PM on a Thursday, room has just started to pick up

V (480): 20 something who just sat down ~1 hour ago. Haven't seen him before but he seems competent. Positionally aware and bet sizing correctly. Playing fairly TAG. Has not 3-bet yet.

Hero: (covers) Getting smacked by the deck so opening a lot of hands, 10-15 depending on number of limpers.

Table as a whole has been fairly loose passive. Lots of limp/calling or limp/folding depending on opening size. V is really the only other player opening pots.

3 or 4 limpers to hero on button, hero opens to 15 with AQ

folds to V in BB, raises to 35

Folds to hero, hero calls

Flop (~80) JT4

V leads for 50
Hero raises to 150
V 3-bets all in

Need to call 295 into 665, super standard call?

4-betting pre seemed bad, but I had position so I felt like just calling was ok. Not really sure what my plan was if I whiffed, which makes me think I should maybe be folding pre some of the time. I had been opening a lot of hands so it's possible he is raising me here with a slightly wider range

Flop is basically gin as there really aren't any hands I am completely dominated by. Drawing to the same outs if he has a set or AA. Only hand I am really concerned with would be KQ, but I think that is less likely given the 3-bet pre.

My intention with raising the flop was to get stacks in ASAP because a 4th heart has to kill my action. I think just calling turns my hand up as the NFD.


Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Obvious fold pre

As played yeah, get it in

Not a fold pre. deep enough to play.

You don't have to raise flop. You can call and see a turn card.

As played I don't think you can fold but don't really like raising flop

What's our plan for the rest of the hand if we just call?

If we hit our flush I would think we have a hard time getting much value from hands other than the king high flush.

Who cares how deep we are when we're playing a RIO hand against a range that dominates us...?

there's ~59 (depending on limpers) in the pot and 20 for us to call preflop. i think the call pre is OK, because:

1) he could think we are opening light (we have opened a lot, he knows what position is)
2) our equity is still 35% vs something like {99-AA; AKo; AJs+} which ain't great but probably playable with these pot odds
3) we have the button, benefit of seeing what he does + should be OK to get money in if we want to
4) would like to be a little deeper, but with an SPR above 5 he can definitely make mistakes with a top pair kind of hand

not the easiest flat pre, and only with the caveat that we aren't going buck wild if we hit our Ace. but i think a call

i don't think you can screw the flop up either way. i don't think we have much fold equity so i probably flat, but against range given above we're a coinflip, so we don't need much

ChicagoLex: can you tell us more about your table image? you say you are opening lots of hands - but are you showing down winners / solid opens? or taking them down with cbets and not showing your rush?

V may be competent and observant, so maybe we can open his range a bit to account for the times he's making some sort of move here, but what range do we put him on? Any PP? 99+? ATs+? AQ, AK? He's making it $35 from the blind. It's not a huge raise, and he knows that, given table dynamics, it's enough to get the action HU. But it is a raise from the blind, so I think his range is pretty tight here. TT+, AK most likely.
Against that range, AQ is like, 31% on poker stove. So the preflop call might be Ok, Except we'll have no real sense of where we're at post flop. We put ourselves in a spot to win the min, lose the max. So, fold pre.
OTF, against the range I gave V, we're about 31%, so it's probably a break even call.
Flop raise was a pretty agressive move. I think you had to expect V was going to shove. He's shoving any set, QQ, KK, AA, esp if he has a heart (we hold A heart, but he's still prob shoving aces here).
Just thinking ahead, if you didn't want to play for stacks on the flop, flat call. Once you raise, you've created a pot you have to chase so call. But raising the flop creates a lot of variance here. Call flop, re evaluate on turn. If you catch your K for Broadway or your flush, you have position and two streets to get some value. If you miss, you're probably folding to a decent bet.
I like playing big draws aggressively, but in this hand, given how tight Vs range should be raising from the blind, we're not far enough ahead to play this fast and have little to no FE.

For your own benefit, enter the Villain's hand/range and your hand into an equity calculator and figure out the profitability of getting stacks in with ace high.

Is the Villain making money by getting stacks in? Are you?

I like how you played the hand and would call the allin.

I think villan has adjusted to you by widening his range.

However he hit this flop but I think you have to be committed to this flop after you 3bet him.

I expect him to have a flush a good chunk of the times.

Not sure what you're trying to accomplish by raising this flop. Even with a big draw you're behind his range so unless you think you can fold out some of his overpairs like black KK or QQ, raising is going to have a lower EV than calling.

I probably would have flatted the flop, raise isnt that bad.

On turn, we snap

+1. Good point

This is not exactly true because as others have stated, if we call and hit our flush we are going to have a very hard time extracting value.

Mistake begats mistake.

Fold pre. Position won't make up for the fact that we have a hand that is smoked by villain's presumed 3-bet range.

Flat flop. Unless we have a read that the villain has a fold button, I'm fine with flatting getting a good price.

AP, GII now.

Do you have any reason to believe he can have 99 or AJs here, or is this just wishful thinking?

People at 1/2 often flat QQ and AK. But you think he's positionally aware and getting aggressive with TT based on...?

i think V is positionally aware because OP says so.

i think V could get aggressive because he's been at table 1 hour, has seen Hero open "a lot" of hands, and since V is positionally aware, should understand that the button represents the widest part of what he thinks is a wide PFR range

if i was in V's shoes (especially if Hero hasn't been showing down), i would strongly consider three betting 99 or AJs

I think you played it fine and will fold a lot of his hands out. If it was a looser player who has a hard time finding the fold button than a flat would probably be better on flop and hopefully a king comes on the turn instead of the heart.

Deathcab spot on imo

330 to win 1030... 12 live outs........seems pretty trivial. Even against a set of Jacks this is a +EV call.

I guess if you spefically know that he has KQ, and you only have about 1/4 equity, you could make a super nitty fold.

But the villain isn't you. The villain is some 1/2 player who we haven't seen 3bet once.

Results for those interested.

Hero calls, LDO.

V shows QQ.

Turn 6

River T

I was a little surprised at his shove here. I guess he has a blocker to the flush, but best case scenario I'm calling with AhJx, right? Is he soul reading me for AJ no heart? Even if he thinks I'm a total drooler most people can fold tptk on a monotone board with no redraw.

Is he shoving here for value or FE?

fold pre

call flop

call now but it is very marginal

The fact that he has the Q in his hand means it's very unlikely you have a flush in your hand since the JT is on the board, so the only "reasonable" raise flush hand here is AK.

I think his shove is extremely bad versus your raise range here (range if nitty):

TT/JJ/AhKx/AhQx.

Board: Jh Th 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.434% 38.28% 00.15% 4548 18.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 61.566% 61.41% 00.15% 7296 18.00 { JJ-TT, AhKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs }

Let's say you have AhJx, AhTx as well. But if you have these hands, you should have some more flushes as well like 9h8h, 8h7h, and JTs.

Board: Jh Th 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.894% 42.82% 00.08% 9749 18.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 57.106% 57.03% 00.08% 12985 18.00 { JJ-TT, AhKh, JTs, 9h8h, 8h7h, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs }


I really dislike how QQ played his hand.

People saying fold pre-flop are a bunch of nits.

Are you behind his range? Yep. But you're getting 3 to 1, in position and you're getting like 24 to 1 implied. The number of times the flop is 965 and he c/f with AK makes up for the time he has QQ+ here.


Also, I would just call the flop. Does a heart kill your action? Usually. But so what. If you're only getting played back at with TT+ (and realistically, that should be his betting flop range here with esp after 3-betting you), you're a small dog there (45%). Of course it does get better if he is the type to fold QQ/KK non-heart hands, but most people have trouble folding those hands (especially in 3 bet pots) and also most people don't like folding. I also think QQ/KK non-heart would take a different line.. but that's debatable IMO.