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1/2 - 200BB deep interesting hand 1/2 - 200BB deep interesting hand

06-26-2017 , 08:43 AM
UTG2 - has been fairly tight. Limps some and seems to take into account the number of limpers when raising.
HJ - A little bit of calling station post flop but pretty solid.

UTG1 limps
UTG2 (~500) raises to 12
LJ calls
HJ (~350)calls
CO (~425) calls with J9dd
SB calls
BB calls
UTG1 folds

Flop (72)
AQT
Checks to UTG2 who bets 25.
LJ folds
HJ calls
I call.
Rest fold

Turn (147)
AQTQ
UTG2 checks
LJ checks
I bet 95
Utg2 calls
LJ calls

River (432)
AQTQ8
UTG2 checks.
LJ checks.

What sizing are we going with on the river? We have a little under $300 left but I feel like jamming only gets called by better or maybe a Queen? Not sure if we could bet $150 and then fold to a raise.
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06-26-2017 , 08:56 AM
$100/fold although I don't think you're up against a boat.

I think you have to be afraid of being value owned by KJ though here but we have to still aim at getting value from Ax/Qx that may fold to larger bets.
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06-26-2017 , 09:47 AM
The turn bet is awful. Check the river.
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06-26-2017 , 09:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
The turn bet is awful. Check the river.
Any logic/reasoning to back up your statements?
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06-26-2017 , 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
The turn bet is awful. Check the river.
Is this because you think UTG2 is going to have AA/QQ/TT/KJ fairly often?

OP has up to 15 outs when villains hold hands like JJ and A5, and should be able rep KQ/QJ fairly credibly given the action. Sure, you can say that this is bloating the pot and it will get him into some weird spots since he hits a straight on the river and can still can be up against 19 combos of higher straights/boats/quads. But that doesn't happen every time. Sometimes we get two better hands to fold and take down $150 with nothing.

I understand that you can make a case against the turn bet, but to say it's awful would imply that it has a strongly negative EV. I really doubt that the EV of the turn bet is going to be -95 when we combine fold equity with our hand equity, unless we think UTG2 is trapping with a boat or quads on the turn a very high percentage of the time.
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06-26-2017 , 10:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Axel Foley
Is this because you think UTG2 is going to have AA/QQ/TT/KJ fairly often?

OP has up to 15 outs when villains hold hands like JJ and A5, and should be able rep KQ/QJ fairly credibly given the action. Sure, you can say that this is bloating the pot and it will get him into some weird spots since he hits a straight on the river and can still can be up against 19 combos of higher straights/boats/quads. But that doesn't happen every time. Sometimes we get two better hands to fold and take down $150 with nothing.

I understand that you can make a case against the turn bet, but to say it's awful would imply that it has a strongly negative EV. I really doubt that the EV of the turn bet is going to be -95 when we combine fold equity with our hand equity, unless we think UTG2 is trapping with a boat or quads on the turn a very high percentage of the time.
You pretty much summed up my thinking. I'm going to want to bet my AQ, KQ, KJ, QJ, TT on the turn for value. Nothing wrong with having JTs,J9s as bluffs.
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06-26-2017 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzz12586
Any logic/reasoning to back up your statements?
Put roughly, ott you're bluffing with one of the worst hands you can bluff with (doing little to block calling ranges, removing many of their weakest hands/draws, rio/io problems/dirty outs) that almost certainly improves upon its EV by checking. Otr you have the option to go for extraordinarily thin value, bluff, or take a showdown. If you construct what either calling range looks like, you probably don't have the proper number to do anything but bet something extremely small.
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06-26-2017 , 10:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Put roughly, ott you're bluffing with one of the worst hands you can bluff with (doing little to block calling ranges, removing many of their weakest hands/draws, rio/io problems/dirty outs) that almost certainly improves upon its EV by checking. Otr you have the option to go for extraordinary thin value, bluff, or take a showdown. If you construct what either calling range looks like, you probably don't have the proper number to do anything but bet something extremely small.
I block KJ and QJ so I disagree with doing little to block calling ranges. What hands would you suggest I bluff with on the turn?
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06-26-2017 , 10:35 AM
I don't like the turn bet because you hit a very good card for your hand but don't know what to do now.
Board is paired and you don't hold the nut straight either. Check.
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06-26-2017 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rus5267
I don't like the turn bet because you hit a very good card for your hand but don't know what to do now.
Board is paired and you don't hold the nut straight either. Check.
Getting 2 callers instead of just 1 has a lot to do with that. What hands would you suggest bluffing the turn with?
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06-26-2017 , 10:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzz12586
I block KJ and QJ so I disagree with doing little to block calling ranges. What hands would you suggest I bluff with on the turn?
It isn't necessary to have turn bluffs against two opponents on a paired bway board.
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06-26-2017 , 10:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
It isn't necessary to have turn bluffs against two opponents on a paired bway board.
I disagree. We put a lot of pressure on just a pair of aces or tens. If we are only value betting trips+ here our opponents can easily fold when we bet.
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06-26-2017 , 04:03 PM
Live, after some body bets into 5 players I don't need any turn bluffs. Both other players are not folding enough for it to be profitable. Are these regs that you play often? They just need to know you do bluff, I doubt they pay close enough attention to range your bluffs into a category of 6 way flops, 3 to a turn that pair the middle broadway card.
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06-26-2017 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzz12586
I block KJ and QJ so I disagree with doing little to block calling ranges. What hands would you suggest I bluff with on the turn?
None. Trying to work-in/balancing bluffs for the sake of balance at LLSNL in general is FPS, eps multiway
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06-26-2017 , 07:42 PM
If the flop AND turn checked to you, I would like a turn bet. As played though, I agree you should check behind on the turn and take the free card. I wouldnt call the turn bet "awful" though. It looks like youre value betting a Q. Once you get called twice, you have a really weird spot. I do think you can bet $150 and fold to a raise because nobody on gods green earth is check raising this board with just a Q and its unlikely either of them has a Q anyway. However, I would bet $100.
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06-26-2017 , 09:14 PM
Am I the only one who thinks this is a good spot for a (thin)value shove?? <300 left into a 432 pot is a fairly reasonable river size bet. Unless Vs are rope-a-doping Hero, they have played this hand very passively. UTG+2 c-bet flop, c/c turn, check river seem like an odd line for AA/AQ/QQ. Seems more consistent w/ AK or AJ and there are a lot more combos of these. I'm confused with the other player in the hand. It seems like LJ folded on the flop but somehow called turn and checked river. In any event, this other caller, could very easily have QJ, QK, or Q9s and hasn't raised at any point in the hand and opted not to bet the river even though you could check behind.
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06-27-2017 , 07:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joey913
Am I the only one who thinks this is a good spot for a (thin)value shove?? <300 left into a 432 pot is a fairly reasonable river size bet. Unless Vs are rope-a-doping Hero, they have played this hand very passively. UTG+2 c-bet flop, c/c turn, check river seem like an odd line for AA/AQ/QQ. Seems more consistent w/ AK or AJ and there are a lot more combos of these. I'm confused with the other player in the hand. It seems like LJ folded on the flop but somehow called turn and checked river. In any event, this other caller, could very easily have QJ, QK, or Q9s and hasn't raised at any point in the hand and opted not to bet the river even though you could check behind.
Sorry, the LJ folded the flop and the HJ is the one who called flop, turn and checked river.
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