$1/2. Villain is a very good TAG. Probably best player in the room ( beside me of course ). 20's WG, headphones, dead-silent, joyless demeanor. Definitely understands the game & executes a solid/disciplined strategy. Hero TAG WG. Not much relevant history, though Villain also seems aware that I'm playing a similar strategy to his.

We're deep here @ 200BB, so I'm wondering is this a mistake to 4b/f vs a strong/thinking player? We're 9h & UTG opener + callers are on loose/semi-LAG spectrum. Should we just call to let the fishy guys behind us in w/ dominated hands vs 4b? I don't often bump into crushers in spots like this deep @ 1/2 capped, but still think it's spot worth refining. Thanks.

Hero (BB): A K

UTG r $8, call x 2, fold x 4, Villain (SB) 3b $45, Hero 4b $125, fold x 3, Villain 5b $400 all-in, Hero folds

i'd 4b there. the way the action went we're repping pretty nutty, i expect him to have a solid range here. that said we've put in so much of our stack, if we add even occasional QQ or AK to his range we have the equity to call. let's see all five cards.

these can't both be true :P

Is he really squeezing light out of SB vs UTG open? I see why you 4bet, but flat might be better

You don't need to go to 125, especially if you're gonna fold to a shove. I'd say 110 is fine.

Your cold 4b range in this spot should be tight - I would say AK, QQ+, and just fold everything else, even JJ.

I don't think he can really rip it in with QQ in this spot, since his lack of blockers means that he will get snapped by KK+, AKs more than half the time and have bad equity (although with your sizing, shoving is about breakeven with QQ). Therefore, I lean towards fold because his jamming range will skew more towards to KK+.

That said, if he knows your cold 4b range is AK, QQ+, then he knows that he can jam AKo profitably, and if he jams all AK in addition to KK+, then you're getting the correct price to call.

It's kinda close, in large part because of your sizing, but I'm sticking with fold, cuz it's never gonna be too bad of a fold, although it could be an absolutely horrible call if his 5b range is KK+ or KK+, AKs.

Hand is played fine.

there is merit to this view

Great analysis. Much appreciated.

Basically put him on AKs+/KK+.

Edit - As for sizing, I wanted to raise ~ 1/3 stacks (a bit under) to set up a natural flop shove, which obviously makes folding more difficult if 5b jammed on, so you're probably correct to size down a bit.

No, I didn't think he was super wide, something like AQ/99+/Axs+/JTs+, etc. Even if narrower, AK is ahead equity wise, & I think we're happy to raise both for thin value & as a thin bluff (aka were happy when they fold 99-JJ, etc.).

But yes, I did contemplate a flat. But I think getting HU IP w/ a PSB behind us much better than 4-5 way OOP w/o initiative.

You’re still giving him a very wide range. I would say it’s way too wide.

Either way, seems like you think he 3bets a TON wider than most at these stakes, so 4bet seems reasonable. Your sizing is too big though. A bit smaller is better, and then we wouldn’t have as tough a decision now.

That is a pretty light squeeze range. If that is his actual squeeze range, then you have to go with your hand because he needs to 5b jam all his AK's for sure.

Like the hand as played.

Its a baseline estimate based on what I've seen alot of young WG grinder-types show up with in squeeze spots like this. Could've been way off, but even if he's as narrow as AQ/99+, a 4b still feels mandatory to me. But I chose to stay conservative & believe that his 5b range would narrow drastically, even if in theory he "has to" shove all AK, I really doubt he does w/o more history @ this level. Really hard to say. I might've been completely owned here.

99 is really ****ing wide against UTG 4x. Wow. You're seriously calling that "narrow"?

I think the value of not blasting the fun players out of pots is way underestimated. For that reason, I flat this one pre.

Dude, AQ/99+ is like 4-5% of all hands preflop, so yeah it fits my definition of "narrow". Agree to disagree I guess. Also, Villain should know the loose regular/fun players involved here are opening & calling pretty wide from AP (maybe I didn't make that clear in the OP).

@ Kato -- Sure, that's definitely arguable. But like I mentioned already, there's some serious drawbacks to that too.

@ Matza -- Yeah, you could be correct.

ranging him as {AQ, 99+} here is unrealistic IMO. look at the way the action went. rare that a player will have that range from SB facing a UTG open, two calls, and a good player to his left still. given reads, this villain is much more likely to 3bet that kind of range IP. even then, that's not all that common for a TAG. if he is in fact a TAG (I'm always highly skeptical of that description at low stakes games. true TAGs are like unicorns.)

5% may seem narrow but considering we only open probably ~15% of our hands, if that (depending on the game obv), that's not narrow. 2% of hands is a narrow 3b range (and not all that uncommon).

we should be putting him on a solid range here. advice from others in the thread that say 3b smaller and raise/fold or stack off as played is spot on IMO. folding as played is not bad either. i'd fold if I wanted lower variance at the moment.

i prefer to be the 4bettor or 5bettor all-in with AK rather than calling a 4bet or 5bet, because we get folds from underpairs and AK sometimes.

99+, AQ is over 5% of hands. UTG would have to be quite loose or bad postflop before I 3b their UTG 4x with 99 oop. Like standard 4x opening range from UTG is like 8-10% of hands, so if you're 3bing oop with 99, which has no blockers, is worse than half their opening range, and plays terribly postflop unless you hit a set, then you're just spewing. It could be good against these particular opponents, but they need to be pretty bad in a specific way (raise too much pre, play passively and unbluffy postflop).

Yeah, I agree. If he really is "good," he'll know that most of his villains have a UTG raising range of JJ+, AK at best. He isn't expecting them to fold much of that range to a 3 bet and isn't looking to play OOP with an inferior hand. Hero has given no indictation that the villain thinks the original raiser is anything other than a standard 1/2 villain.

Personally, I don't like to go up against the best player in a room where the pot is getting big with a RIO hand under these circumstance. The smart play is let it go. Now if your read was that the UTG was raising light and the SB was starting to adjust, then I like a 4 bet.

@ 808 -- I understand the skepticism. He is actually a true TAG. Doesnt mean he's leakless, but he's very solid fwict. In my player pool he's basically 1 of 5 guys I know of in the city that qualifies as a true grinder & plays this small. Regardless, most everyone has spots they're way imbalanced in, & I figured this was such a spot & could fold vs his KK/AA heavy range.

@ ATC -- Fine, you win, 6% of hands. I still say that's narrow, you say it's not. Doesn't impact my points in the least. As for the OR, he has stuff like KTo in his UTG RFIR, & doesn't like to fold, so seems to me AQ/99 is plenty good enough. And frankly if he doesn't fold much, then we can justify widening our value 3b range to stuff like AJ, KQ, KJs, etc. Don't let my obstinance make you think I don't appreciate what you're saying though.

Edit -- @ Venice, OR is definitely not that tight UTG. This is not a readless/vacuum spot.