Game: 1/2/2 NLHE where btn posts $1, and minimum amount to limp into the pot is 4.

Villain: Somewhat competent young guy who might be somewhat tilted, having losing lost two large pots in the previous orbits and having reloaded to $200. Has been opening fairly regularly, understands board textures and knows when not to cbet.

Stacks are $200 effective.

PF: I open AKdd to 12, only he calls in BB.

Flop (23 after rake): KQ5ss
He check calls 15.

Turn (53): 9c
He check calls 35.

River (123): 5h
He leads 45, I call.

PF, flop and turn are pretty standard IMO, but what is my course of action on the river?

Is a thinking villain bluffing this brick river, and what kinds of hands am I beating that are value betting/blocker betting the river? Can I put him on a range of KT-KJ, AQ, TT-JJ and call?

not folding for that size bet.

I think your ranging is bad, though. why no air/draws? No KQ? No K9? Do you think he ever gets to this river with TT-JJ like that? Etc.

I definitely do think he can have K9, KQ, JT etc, I was just listing combos that I can beat that he might be betting on the river. I would discount TT -JJ due to PF action but I can definitely see him getting to the river with those two hands due to the straight draw he picks up on the turn.

My main concern is that I don't really see him bluffing the river with draws for that bet size since he probably knows that I'm not folding for such a small bet size.

That's a reason to bet small with a bluff.

Really, he shouldn't be betting that small with a value hand, either, because you should have something to have double barreled that board. He should be betting at least 1/2 pot expecting you to snap with AK type hands.

Shove river. What hands are you worried about exactly, JT? Seems JT would raise turn with the flush draw out there. KQ probably raises flop or turn. 55 probably raises flop or turn and quads is always unlikely. This is one of the best boards you can ask for with AK.

was the 5 on the flop one of the two spades or not?
-5x of spades is possible if it wasn't for combo draw river trips.
what position did you open from preflop?
-makes a difference in how wide he will defend I think. The later the position you opened the wider his range is prob.

This could very easily be 10j. Hero raised preflop bet kq5ss for a cbet, barrels a 9 turn, and villain should think flush draw is significant part of hero's range and he needs to "protect" not that likely.

Why would we shove the river here...its an easy snap call, but if we shove, are we really ever going to get called by a worse hand?

Sure, it's a decent board, but it's not really top notch. Straight draw got there. It's a paired board, and KQ is very much in V's range. I would like board a lot more with AA instead of AK.

+1 to this. I'm not saying you're wrong about shoving, but I am really interested in what you are trying to get value out of when you shove? What range of hands are we targeting?


Also, OP, what cards are the spades in the hand?
If it is the KQ, then 5X becomes a very reasonable portion of their range here they can try to get value from. So, that might influence the decision making process here.

Kx obviously. If he had a hand that beats you, he played it horribly.

That's a totally general and baseless statement.

You think lol obviously kx will call a river shove? Why?

If villain had a better hand he played it horribly? wtf really?
explain this.. if your willing to shove ak here then he played it almost perfect.

Flop was KsQc5s eliminating 5sxs as one of the possible combos.

I opened from MP, but had been fairly quiet up to that point so I don't think he was defending that light.

I am never shoving on the river here since I don't see any competent villain calling off with a Kx that I beat.