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1/2 2 pair probz 1/2 2 pair probz

05-31-2014 , 10:05 AM
Hey guys!

Loose passive drunk limpy game. 4 hours into session.

Hero/BB(650) Young 20s white, has been somewhat loose and passive pre limping alot of hands but playing tight and aggro post value betting relentlessly.

Villian/UTG(400) MAWG drunk, friendly, and slowwwwww. Never knows where the action is and holding the game up. makes up for the reduced speed by playing super loose and stationy. Have seen him peel 2 streets chasing gutters. Have seen him call down multiple streets with second pair. Rarely raises and have never seen him 3b.

UTG straddle 6

4 calls HERO defends with K4 purely for flush value
Straddle checks

FLOP(36) KQ4

HERO leads for 25
V calls
rest fold

TURN(86) 5

HERO leads 40
V raises to 100
HERO?
1/2 2 pair probz Quote
05-31-2014 , 11:08 AM
If he is loose, stationary and passive then give up on turn. The raise isn't always a flush, but will be something that beats you enough that calling is -EV. Villain will turn up with random worse two pairs and bluffs enough to be annoying, but not enough to make it profitable to call.
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05-31-2014 , 12:49 PM
Easy fold but on a wet board your turn bet should have been around $65. Preflop is iffy but I think with fish in the pot its fine.
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05-31-2014 , 10:33 PM
Fold pre. As played call the turn and x/c the river.
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05-31-2014 , 10:40 PM
Edit: wrong thread.
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05-31-2014 , 11:17 PM
Based on the fact you said he rarely raises and never 3-bets, it sounds like a flush is well within his range here. Not worth chasing a 4-outer here. I actually like the bet on the turn here. When he raises you, he's making a statement. Let this one go.
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06-01-2014 , 02:47 AM
Bet around $60 on turn and then fold to raise. He has you beat almost every time here.
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06-01-2014 , 08:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
4 calls HERO defends with K4 purely for flush value
Straddle checks

FLOP(36) KQ4

HERO leads for 25
It's not a good idea to play just to hit flushes with the non nut flush draw.
And apparently you weren't just going for flush value if you hit top and bottom and lead.
B/f every street if you don't boat.
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06-01-2014 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh
Villian/UTG(400): Rarely raises and have never seen him 3b.

TURN(86) 5

HERO leads 40
V raises to 100
HERO?
Well it looks like you have your answer
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06-01-2014 , 09:22 PM
Seems like you got too comfortable Value Bossing people post flop.

Anyway I have this problem as well but you have to plan your hand. It's easy to get blinded by a strong hand and bet bet bet.

On the flop when you bet I'd be asking myself what the possible outcomes of this bet would be and what they mean?

Villain Call? What hands would he be calling with?
If Villain Raises? What hands is he repping, and am I re-raising?

With his calling range in mind, I'm taking note of bad turn cards: 's

And if a spade does come what my action would be.

I'll check and hopefully get a cheap showdown or draw on the river to boat up.

Planning ahead helps you avoid difficult spots.

Also taking your table image into consideration and how others react to your bets makes planning even more important.
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06-01-2014 , 09:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Well it looks like you have your answer
+1 Winning
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06-03-2014 , 10:07 PM
I feel villian has flush about 70% of the time here. 2pair other 10%, set other 10% and TP final 10%.

You have about a 9% chance to win for anything other than TP. So I see it as .7*.09 + .1*.09 + .1*.09 + .1*7 = 15% chance of winning. With 15% you need about 6:1 pot odds. I'd just fold and wait for a better spot vs villian.
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