Table Dynamics: 5am Saturday morning at an east coast casino. Much tighter game than your typical 1/2 game. Not much limping going on mostly raises and 2-3 way pots with occasional limp folds pre.

Because of the tightness of the table hero has been opening wider and trying to attack pots and has been unsuccessful so far, isoing and getting bad boards to cbet, cbetting and giving up a couple times. Heros image is definitely a losing one and a few villains (definitly bb in this hand) appear to be entering all of heros raised pots to get involved

The villains:

BB (400$ effective): older guy who plays a different style than most older guys. Pretty snug pre but very aggressive post. Have seen him donk bet in multiway raised pots multiple times as well as raised a cbet with QJ on Q95ss in a 4 way pot. Too aggro IMO and is one of the only spots at the table I've been trying to play a big pot with since he seems to overvalue marginal hands in raised pots.

utg + 1 (350$ effective): early 30s Hispanic guy, bought in for the max about 40 minutes ago and has been playing super tight so far. Limp called once or twice pre in multi way pots but hasn't put any money in post. Read is he is a typical nit looking to make the nuts.

The hand: utg+ 1 limps, tight passive limps, I make it 14 with AKdd, btn calls, villain in bb calls, villain utg + 1 calls, and tight passive calls. 5 way to the flop

Flop: Jd8d6h (pot 64$)

Bb leads for 35$, and utg snap makes it 90$, folds to hero.

What's my line? I'm willing to play a big pot with bb but defiantly not utg+1. Then again, utg+1 may be observant enough to be putting in money with less than a set here if he is paying attention to how bb has been playing, but I have no evidence to suggest he is capable of this. If he is capable of pushing the action with one of the many combo draws possible/AJ i have an easy raise here but again, my read isnt solidified yet. Flat? Raise call it off? Fold? All options kind of made me sick.

Thanks

With his image i expect to have no fold equity with a raise.
The only hand u are ahead of are 5d7d or 9dTd but i doubt he limp calls 5d7d and i guess he wont play 9dTd this way (if at all). So we are prob playing against Sets/2Pair.
I guess he has more sets than 2Pair in his range since he prob wont limp/call these hands.
Therefore we are far behind most of the time but we have good implied odds and we could peel one card. BB should not go crazy in this spot. But im not sure i think call/fold are our 2 options.

That was what I did, expecting him to spite pay off a diamond turn given the size of the pot. So I flatted the 90 and off suit 5 came on the turn. He jams

Idk if i actually find a fold on the flop but i think thats what is best.

You have like 25% equity against utg +1 range. With ur read thinking he has anything but a set/2 pair is veeeerrryyy generous.

Plus bb is still left to act. His range is weaker but not insignificant.

From the outside looking in i fold but thay being said its really hard to fold ur hand.

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Just a simple math problem I think. Given the assumption that he jams on any non-diamond turn, and that we fold to his turn jam unimproved, we're around 4/1 to hit the flush on the turn and are getting 2.1/1 on the $90 call, which improves to 2.7/1 if BB flats behind too.

So vs UTG+1 we need to make another ~$180 when the turn comes a diamond which I think is very reasonable with two streets of betting to come. If he has a set he is likely committed at this point anyway with a bloated pot but even if he checks back, he's unlikely to fold to a pot size bet on a blank river.

There's also the added implied odds that BB provides behind. Of course he can repop after you flat the $90 but with everything except monsters he probably flats or folds. So there's the chance that he cals behind with a dominated draw, and when you do spike a diamond you could potentially stack both of them.

It's close because there are also times where you turn the diamond and lose when the river pairs the board. I can get behind either a call or a fold on the flop (I call because I'm a fish and I have a flush draw), the only bad option in my view is to 3bet and get it in on a draw with no fold equity.

Just math here. Stove it.

28% equity on most hands, 25% is one has a blocker, and we're ahead of a lot of diamond draws, but we all know that's not the case here.

350 eff, both cover. 14 invested. 189 pot on flop to you. 90 to win 189. In this case, we want bb to come along, even if we have to dodge 1-2 more outs if we hit.

So say, in the average case, utg+1 is not folding, but bb is. 189+246=435.

No way we are shoving because obviously there is no fold equity, but if we call here, we can possibly get bb along also to raise equity.

Best case is to call here and get bb along also for his fish think (lolpotoddsherpderp). If bb 3b's then obviously utg is raising/shoving, and we are committed from the dead money from bb if he folds, and even better if he calls.

I believe we call here, and hope we hit another diamond.

Did bb flat also after you? If so, and as played, and I assume UTG jams, the pot is 279+utg+1's jam (246)which = 525. 246 to win 525 is around 31%? 9 cards out of 44 to come to complete = 21%. Implied odds can signify a call here, but I don't know if I can do it. I'd probably do it online, but not on the table. If bb came along for the turn, then yes I'm calling and praying he comes also. Bleh. Sick.

I've gotten in games like this too. Aside from the hand question, do you think this is just one of those moments when you should not be playing and looking for better spots?