How did you arrive at the 150% figure? I think that k10s is a perfectly fine call preflop (especially with the caller on the button), but I don't really get the calling 150% thing.
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This includes actually ranging my Vs and having a plan for various run outs.
seems to be the very opposite of
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and decide he is 100% scared of either the club or the A
Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but it seems like instead of ranging villain you're just making a soul read on the river and going with it.
On the flop he's got:
value hands (any king, aces, sets)
semi bluffs (two clubs, gutshots but probably not all of them)
total bluffs (given he's betting into two players there should not be as many total bluffs as heads up)
On the turn the majority of his semi bluffs have now become value hands. so he's now got:
value hands (any king, aces, set, flushes)
semi bluffs (gutshots, ace of clubs)
total bluffs (again discounting a lot of these since the flop was 3 way)
So when you check call again you are hoping that he's got either a gutshot, a total bluff which turned a flush draw and is now a semi bluff or double barreling a total bluff. And you're hoping he's got enough of those to justify when you lose to his value range.
On the river due to the ace, once again a good % of his semi bluffs move to value because he's hit the ace.
So on the river you now lose to all of his value range, or he's got a total bluff. When you bet out here almost all of his value range is calling with the exception of KJ and KQ and for his bluff range he's folding or rebluffing. Even if he does hate the ace then betting when it hits accomplishes very little. If you're going to make some type of a hero play on the river it would be a check call.
Standard would be to check fold.
What I don't get into is which part of his value hands he's checking the flop or the turn with because that would really make things complicated and long. For this hand, as is usually the case in llsnl, on the river if he bets again he's usually got a very big hand or a total bluff.