1/1 home game, about 150 effective (hero covers by a lot)

V1: gambool fish. Addicted to seeing flops. L/C often and overpays for draws often. Has great anguish over folding 44 after a limp to a raise and short-stack re-raise shove for 45BBs.

V2: Thinking LAG, but a bit over aggressive. Is (occasionally) active on 2+2 and knows that Hero is a reg ITF. Seems to respect hero's game, but sometimes tries a bit too hard to outplay.

Hero opens UTG+1 to $10 with JhJs, V1 calls in UTG +2, V2 raises to $35 in MP.

While V2 is one of the two players at the table who could squeeze, he also likely knows that my UTG+1 opening range is solid and that V1 hates to fold. Also, there are a couple of loose fish yet to act. Value range is likely AQs, AK, TT+. There are a few smaller PPs and spazz hands in his range as well.

Folds to hero who ???

If I flat, V1 is very likely to overcall all of his PP range to set mine, as he doesn't understand the odds he needs. If I raise, V1 is almost certainly gone, and likely if I fold as well.

Interesting spot, for me it would really depend on which villain is setting the 150bb effective (or if they are both hovering around that spot)

Obviously we want to play with V1, and based on your reads on V2 he probably understands the same ( I would think) If we are giving a range of top 7% for a 3bet from v2 (1010+, JTS+ AQo+) its favoring you 52%/48% BUT that is a pretty wide range for a 3bet that based off your reads and knows that you understand position and should adjust accordingly (Throwing in the suited broadways for trying to "outplay" you)

Very close spot, IMO if v1 is deeper I'm flatting and b/fing most flops and trying to play with v1 on the turn and river, if stacks are lower in perfectly fine folding here though and waiting for a better spot.

IMO if we flat his 3bet that makes us look stronger than 4betting if he's competent and I don't see many hands that will raise a donk flop bet that we beat otf.

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Probably nothing wrong w flatting and just felting on most non a non k boards, letting him barrel off whatever.

Good question. Yes, both V's are at about 150bb. I am at about 450.

Agree with mackcorl that this is a pretty close spot.

At first glance i get the impression like he is trying to 3 bet it to get HU with the station/fish: he wants you to fold and play the pot HU in position against the station.

TT/AQ type of hand seems very likely, aswell as bigger monsters of course. I dont think he is at the bottom of his 3 bet range here, given that the station has entered the pot, and he has to expect getting action from him almost regardless. Not to forget that he has several players left to act behind him also.

Folding sounds pretty weak when you first look at it, but the stacksizes (we dont really get the odds to setmine or to comfortably stackoff pre with JJ here) and being OOP, i am leaning towards a fold actually.

Tempted to call now with the plan check/shove "safe" flops.

I think you're underestimating V1's likely range. Sure it includes pairs maybe 22-99, but it probably also includes suited aces, pretty face cards, connectors suited and not, etc. Sounds like he likes to limp/call a lot of different hands, and I think it's important that we understand his range extends well beyond pairs, which are going to be playing very fit-or-fold on most flops. It also includes hands that can pick up good draws, weak draws, pairs, pair + draws, etc. In other words, he can develop showdown value / equity on flops.

V2's value range isn't horrible for you, and it sounds like he has a potentially sizable bluff range as he tries a bit too hard to outplay you. Even though this is probably a bad spot for a squeeze, that doesn't mean he isn't squeezing. Either way, 3-betting is no good here because he'll obviously fold his bluffs and will stick around with a range of hands that you don't want to see.

So I'm tempted to call and then check/shove flops for a bunch of reasons.

First, let's go back to V1's range. Like I said, it includes a lot more than just the pairs. It includes a lot of hands that can pick up lots of weak showdown value and draws of various quality on a lot of different flops. So when we call pre-flop - and almost ensure a call from V1 with his entire range - we're giving V1 an opportunity to stick around with worse hands and to make worse hands. In other words, when we check/shove the flop, we actually get V1 to stack off with a range that includes lots of worse hands against which we have significant equity. Of course, he'll often fold, and rarely call with better.

Shoving also does good things against V2's value range, in that he'll fold hands with lots of equity (AK, AQs) but of course stick around with QQ-AA, but that's only 18 combos vs. the 20 combos of AK, AQs. And of course, you need to consider the bluff combos that we'll get another bet from when we check the flop, and that could easily be 25% of his full range (i.e. ~10 combos) which may also have some equity against us, like Qx, Kx.

Stack sizes matter a lot. When we call pre, V1 will call, and we'll go to the flop with 105 in the pot with 115 behind. We'd love to see V2 c-bet like 1/2 pot, and we jam.

The flop texture will matter, too. Obviously we might give up on AKx, etc. Not sure precisely what the cut off for a "safe" flop is - obviously the safest has under cards to the JJ.

Flop action will also matter a lot. We effectively get to check for information to some extent - for example, we check, V1 bets, V2 jams... that's an easy fold. There are other permutations. What we're hoping for is the most likely permutation - it checks to V2, and he c-bets.

A lot of good things can happen when we c/shove the flop, including getting V1 to call with worse and V2 to fold hands with OK equity or simply bet/fold with his air. Of course, if we're beat, we're beat, but stacking off pre-flop is much spewier. I'd rather keep V2's range wide with value and bluffs with a call pre-flop and get another bet from his worse hands.

Finally, I'm not likely to fold pre given the dynamic you discussed.

I fully agree that lots of other hands are in his range to call my open. It's just that very little of it (22-JJ, QJs+, KQo+, imo) will overcall after the three bet if we call. His Arag-s, A5o-ATo, SC, Suited gapper, JXs-KXs range will fold to the three bet, whether I come along or not. He's sticky, but not THAT horrible

Aye, there's the rub. If that is our plan, what do we call a safe flop?

If he's bluffing often enough, then I guess every flop is "safe." All considered, every non-A flop is probably a safe flop.

By the way, just because we're not set mining doesn't mean we don't get to make a set close to 12% of the time.

Any merit, to bet/folding the "iffy" flops and check/shoving the "safe" flops then?

I do really like the idea behind the check/shoving but it seems on "iffy" flops you will fold out worse/only get called by better 100% of the time, whereas I do not see villain raising any hand that we beat, and get him to fold better in certain scenarios. I will say though it is a tough line to determine.

fold

Call to keep the fish in

I don't think 4betting would get us value from much, and we still value own ourselves/flip with a lot of hands

yep, fold.

Grunch.
There are 16(AK) + 4(AQs) + 6(TT)= 26 combos you're ahead of for V1, and 18 combos you're behind. But nevermind that, looking at Pokercruncher, you're 44% against V1's range. Call and shove any non-ace flop, since aces improve 20 of the hands you were beating. Prolly fold any ace flop (without a J, ldo), but not sure about that.
The set miner is actually just baggage in this hand. Play it against V1.
So you can't fold. Trying to decide if shoving is better than calling. Since V's range is so ace-heavy, I think you get an advantage by seeing flop, so call.

Edit: should prolly fold flops with K's as well.

Squeezing from MP? If he really was squeezing from MP then you'd have seen it a mirrin times by now and we could just 4b for value.

Since we're not sure, the its probably not a light 3b. Therefore... This is a trivial flat and x/decide. Never leading the flop since we can let either villain just hang themselves.

Think about this...what happens if you go the raising route and scare off other villain...raiser has higher pp or two overs. You are going to lose and lose often...at best its a call and hope the other villain calls to pay you more in the pot when you do have the best hand. If villain is serious his range is a coin flip or a higher pp that crushes you with villain in position.

A couple of things. First, we're behind the value range you give us. Playing a hand oop and worse than what was raised is usually a bad ideal. The next thing is that about 50% of the time, we're going to see a card larger than a J. Finally, there's no room to maneuver because the SPR is going to be so low if you call.

Mpethy wrote a while back about defending against 3bets in a COTW. His conclusion is that you normally don't. If your plan is to c/f any flop with a Q or better, it would be better to fold pf. If someone is betting, you're jamming or folding on the flop.

I just plugged the numbers into CREV to see the EV of the shove in this interesting spot.
Even if you put tighter ranges like V2 is only squeezing with TT+/AQ+, it's definetly a shove, the EV when they call only when they have you beat or some coin flips is +6.

When V2 is squeezing lighter (like the range you gave) and V1 is calling sometimes with TT, the EV goes up to 30. It's a no-brainer. You should start thinking about folding only if V2's range is tighter than TT+ AQ+

Only calling to see a flop 3-way OOP when your hand is so vulnerable and the implied odds so poor if you're lucky enough to flop a set (and unlickely to be paid even in this case because of V2's wide range PF), is out of question imho.

I'd probably call. If we do, I also agree with willy that V1 is continuing wider than you think. If V description is correct, he can't fold a lot of his speculative range given the Lolpotodds. Gambooly fish aren't folding those hands you mentioned too often in this spot.

It's very likely there are a bunch of 3b bluffs in V2'srange (my assumption, given description) Folding didn't even cross my mind until I read a few of the responses.

How about the times V2 is 3betting Axs or w/e and we extract a cbet from him?

Yes, we're a 55:45 dog vs. the value range. But you're missing the big picture:

- OP noted that villain has a tendency to try too hard to outplay/bluff. There is certainly a decent % of bluffs in villain's range. Against villain's entire range, JJ is doing quite well, and 45:55 vs. the value range isn't terrible at all.

- You're correct that the low SPR gives no room for maneuverability, but that's actually the point; that's advantageous for us. We're damn near getting enough equity to stack off pre-flop (we're probably ~40:60 vs. villain's getting it in range, which is AK-heavy), but by planning to check/shove most flops, what we're basically doing IS getting it all-in pre-flop... but we're just delaying it one street to ensure villain sticks around with almost every hand in his range, including his bluffs, which will continue to fire on flops with very little if any equity.

- By planning to check/shove a lot of flops, we deny villain a ton of his equity in the hand. Much of his range (16 AKs and 4 AQs) only realizes its full equity when it sees 5 cards. You're seeing that we're 45:55 vs. his value range and maybe a touch less than 40:60 vs. his getting it in range pre, and you're not digging that - OK, but that's just the hot/cold equity if we actually see 5 cards. When we plan to check/shove a lot of flops, he will be fold his unpaired hands and won't get a chance to see the turn or river, and so he will not realize that equity.

- I'm not worried about any card higher than a J. A-high flops are the only very bad flops for us given that villain's value hands will almost always have a better made hand on those flops, and given the low SPR, he's probably not folding any made hands. He will check behind sometimes on A-high flops, and then we can play some poker, but mostly will be hoping to check it down.

- We actually can flop a J, and while getting ~3:1 direct (assuming we know V1 will call) on a call with 125 left in stacks (i.e. 8:1 stack implied) is no where near enough to set mine, it certainly adds to our EV in this situation.

- Garick thinks V1 will fold a lot of the more middling hands in his range pre-flop even if we make our call, but I'm not sure I totally buy that given the read. I still believe there is an opportunity to get V1 to stack off with worse and get V2 to fold his air/bluffs/hands with 6 outs on the flop. For example, when V1 holds 99 on 742, or T9s on T52. If V1 makes a weird gut shot or w/e, like QJ on 983, etc. He could very well stick around with very little equity per the OP read (chasing draws, liking to see flops, gambool).

- Stacks sizes really matter here. If we were a bit deeper, I'd fold pre-flop - a flop check/shove would be too much, we could not set mine, and we'd be check/folding so many flops. If we were a lot deeper, I'd call pre-flop - we can set mine and also read the action. If we were shallower, I'd get it in pre-flop - we would have already committed a good % of stacks, I'd expect V to stack off with ATC, there's some overlay, and we'd have the odds vs. ranges. This is a unique stack size that makes this kind of stop-and-go nuts ideal.

Garick - Fold here... I sat next to him all night and watched how he was playing and what he was playing. He showed me just about every hand. He still has some outplay you in his blood, but not as much anymore. He was playing pretty snug last night. His 3bet range is fairly tight, IMO.

FWIW, I'm going to tell him to post here and make sure he tells you he had 56o. In a way it will be me meta outplaying you. I'm still in outplay Garick mode.

I don't mind calling if he blindly barrels off with missed AK/AQs. Just stack off on non A high or K high flops or bink a set.

Hero decides to call, with a plan to check shove most non-ace flops. Sadly, V1 tanks, but does not come along.
Pot $80
Flop Qd9d5c
Hero checks, still planning to check shove over a normal sized c-bet, but V2 overbets $100, leaving only $20 behind.

Hero?

Nice post

more or less agree with everything while acknowledging this is definitely a tough spot

Don't change the plan now unless you have some specific read that his overbet is strong. As a default I would say an overbet means weak from this kind of player. His overbet as a value hand doesn't make much sense anyway against our perceived range on this board.

Magic Oreo time. I'm calling and expecting to be good most of the time.


Also... Not raising since I want to make him show.