So small math problem that I would like to have info about.

Table contain 4 major calling station and 2 good player the rest are 2 nit and weak loose player usually passive.

The night is going crazy has every pot is around 10-20 preflop and usually the pot get to 200 by the turn. It's usually 5-6 handed every hand and we have semi deep. With the raise preflop though we aren't that deep. (deep for 1/1 basically)

Been playing for 4 hours and around 10 pots of 200bb were won with 3rd pair. Thats how loose the table is.

Vilain is a dude a first met that day, he seems to understand some fundamentals and didnt make any major mistake, I would say he is probably in the top 4 at the table. He started rather tight but lossen up quite a lot since then. He usually bet strong when he has a hand but I have seen him do it with draws as well. When he has the initiative he usually cbet when has a hand (since most hand are 5 handed.... it would be ******ed to cbet without something). He seems semi tilty from the last hand.

Hero is big reg of the place, known to be quite laggy and not affraid to 3 barrel bluff. Most seem him as a winning reg, some are afraid some love the action I bring.

Hand:

Average stack is 350bb
Hero has 450 bb in for 600
V has 120 bb just lost a pot of 250 against hero and another (split)
Hero is UTG +1 and is dealt AQss

UTG straddle
Hero raise to 15
V is utg+2 call
5 other call

pot at roughly 105

flop : Kh Ts 5h
Hero check Check around

I decide to check here since I can check call a decent amount deep stacked with backdoor nut flush and a gutter. I can see the action develop too and figure if I need to get out of there. Betting would be pointless with how loose the game is anyway.

Pot at 105
Turn: Ks

Hero check, Vilain shove all in 105$, everybody fold, hero ??

I would like your imput on what you do here.
What range does the vilain have and do we call/fold ?

Thx a lot.

Against worse than kx it's easy call as you have so many outs.... ace queen flush straight ie up to 18. Good chance he would have bet kx after you checked flop so can discount kx think? Why didn't you lead turn? Now call.

I'd have bet flop if not for second heart. Btw if someone bet flop I would almost certainly fold. You had only three clean outs and were oop.

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Based on your reads and the number of people that are in the hand I think this is a fold for the following reasons:

1. There are 7 people in the hand, and unless V is crazy he's going to have something in this spot that's ahead of you. Your read is also that he's not bluffing 6 other people. In light of this, the very worst made hand he could have is a 10x, and he probably has Kx.
2. He could also have a semi-bluff, but you have the nut flush draw and the Q of spades, so there aren't a lot of big draws he could have. I guess he could have QJo, but I would be surprised if he's shoving with that after the board pairs.
3. Unless he's semi-bluffing, best case scenario is that he has a 10, and that his hole card isn't an A or Q. If that's the case, you have 18 outs, which gives you about 36% to improve on the river and just right pot odds to call. However, if he has a K (which I think is more likely), you're A and Q are no longer outs, and some of your flush or straight outs improve him to a full house. Say you then have 10 or 11 outs, you're not getting the pot odds to call.
4. Finally, if he already has a boat you're drawing to one out (the J of spades). Think this is unlikely, doubt he's checking the reasonably wet flop with two pair or a set, but I guess it's possible.
5. So, unless he's semi-bluffing a lot, this is a fold, since in you're best case against a made hand you're just barely getting the pot odds. You have blockers to most of the best semi-bluffing hands (which are the nut flush draw and the flush + straight draws). I fold and expect him to have Kx most of the time, QJo some of the time and K10/K5 every so often.

K5 is impossible since he seemed to play tightish. I love your analysis thanks a lot. Wouldn't he bet Kx once I check the flop though? Unless its a weak king like k9 I see him betting his king.

Personally at the time I though he had the T or JJ,QQ or some flush draw + gutter.I calculated around 9 out against K and around 14 outs against his "overall range"
I figure my Ace is good, Q or J is good (depending if he has JJ or QQ) flush draws out are good minus 1 for a possible full house. 8+3+3.

That was my analysis, feel free to comment some more

He rarlely has Kx here, his line looks more like Tx or some kind of draw.

With probably 18 outs, and A high possibly being good, i think its close, but a call is fine

I think the extreme multi-way action here may make it more likely he checks Kx. 7-way, in early position, I could see checking KJ, KQ, K9 or other Ks. Not sure it's the right play, but TPGK isn't a monster in this situation the way it would be with 2 or 3 people

The problem with this hand is that once the board pairs, I think he's a lot less likely to shove his draws on the turn with only one card left to come. For instance, say he has AT of hearts or QJ of hearts. Why isn't he betting the flop? And, if he isn't semi-bluffing the flop when he has two cards to improve with, why is he shoving on the turn when (i) he only has one card left to improve and (ii) he could be drawing dead to a boat? Only way it makes sense is if he was setting up a check raise on the flop and was surprised it's checked around, but his stack is a bit short to effectively check raise, since any raiser would be committed against him unless they were on a pure bluff.

As I see it, my range for him is a lot of Kx, some 10x, some draws (which I would weight towards draws including a T of hearts, which would be ahead right now) and a couple of boats. I probably under-estimated initially the number of draws he has, since he could have flopped a heart draw, but since a lot of those have a T in them I'm not sure we're helped. I probably fold still, but don't know if I have the discipline to fold at the table.

Could hero have bet the turn as I suggested? Say bet half pot?

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What would this accomplish? Pretty unlikely on a wet board that all 6 Vs fold, if we're called we're almost certainly behind, and if someone shoves we'll be behind but priced in to call.

Bet half pot. Only villain is short stacked. Against any one else we fold to a raise. If many call then we created good odds to draw although we are careful of house. However house unlikely as flop checked.

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