Quote:
Originally Posted by Yokoblue
K5 is impossible since he seemed to play tightish. I love your analysis thanks a lot. Wouldn't he bet Kx once I check the flop though? Unless its a weak king like k9 I see him betting his king.
Personally at the time I though he had the T or JJ,QQ or some flush draw + gutter.I calculated around 9 out against K and around 14 outs against his "overall range"
I figure my Ace is good, Q or J is good (depending if he has JJ or QQ) flush draws out are good minus 1 for a possible full house. 8+3+3.
That was my analysis, feel free to comment some more
I think the extreme multi-way action here may make it more likely he checks Kx. 7-way, in early position, I could see checking KJ, KQ, K9 or other Ks. Not sure it's the right play, but TPGK isn't a monster in this situation the way it would be with 2 or 3 people
The problem with this hand is that once the board pairs, I think he's a lot less likely to shove his draws on the turn with only one card left to come. For instance, say he has AT of hearts or QJ of hearts. Why isn't he betting the flop? And, if he isn't semi-bluffing the flop when he has two cards to improve with, why is he shoving on the turn when (i) he only has one card left to improve and (ii) he could be drawing dead to a boat? Only way it makes sense is if he was setting up a check raise on the flop and was surprised it's checked around, but his stack is a bit short to effectively check raise, since any raiser would be committed against him unless they were on a pure bluff.
As I see it, my range for him is a lot of Kx, some 10x, some draws (which I would weight towards draws including a T of hearts, which would be ahead right now) and a couple of boats. I probably under-estimated initially the number of draws he has, since he could have flopped a heart draw, but since a lot of those have a T in them I'm not sure we're helped. I probably fold still, but don't know if I have the discipline to fold at the table.