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1/1 Flopped top set 1/1 Flopped top set

05-10-2017 , 09:18 PM
7 handed with mostly passive MAWM.

Effective stack 130, third orbit and not much info. However, it was noticed that MP has not limped in any hands and play reasonably tight.

Hero (UTG) with 88 raises 6 UTG
MP, BTN, SB calls

Flop (26):
8 5 3

Hero bets 18, only MP calls

Turn (62):
2

Hero bets 30, MP calls.

River (122):
7

Hero checks, MP shoves with circa 70, hero?

Any flush and three combinations of straight got there and it is hard to believe that that player would bet out 2P for value here. On the other hand, it's almost only a 1/2 PSB and MP most likely puts you on premium hands.

Also, what do you think of the sizing?

Last edited by TheRiverMagic; 05-10-2017 at 09:25 PM.
1/1 Flopped top set Quote
05-11-2017 , 05:34 AM
I agree this sucks but I'd ask what did he call with? I would call the 70 due to pot size. I think straight or flush here too but he could also have sets of 7, 2, 3, or 5
1/1 Flopped top set Quote
05-11-2017 , 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicagodude
I agree this sucks but I'd ask what did he call with? I would call the 70 due to pot size. I think straight or flush here too but he could also have sets of 7, 2, 3, or 5
I think MP is sensible enough not to call with 69, 46 or even A4 from that position so I removed the entire straight from his range imo. I feel like any 2Ps and sets wouldn't be slow playing here - perhaps the only possibility would be 77 or 22.
1/1 Flopped top set Quote
05-11-2017 , 06:41 AM
I would guess we get shown a flush here a pretty big percentage of the time the way this hand went down. With 3 callers preflop alot of continueranges wich call a flop bet would be flushdraws.

On the turn villain have position and you keep betting into him, so i mean he can just oki doki call in position to see if you will fire the river also. When you dont he can easily shove for value.

Sets or or funky two pair combo will raise the flop some portion of the time to and not take this line. I think river is a puke fold to be honest, were getting shown a flush or a rare straight too often.
1/1 Flopped top set Quote
05-11-2017 , 06:57 AM
Check the turn. Its really hard for him to have anything worse that can continue to call and getting shoved on sucks hard, you would not have odds to call vs a flush.

As played, I think its pretty hard to get away from this given the odds. I think Id just jam rather than check and hope he has an overpair or lower set. Given you checked its closer but I'm still disinclined to fold getting this kind of price.
1/1 Flopped top set Quote

      
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