1-1 Flopped 2 pairs in limped pot, Villain shoves flop. - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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1-1 Flopped 2 pairs in limped pot, Villain shoves flop.

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06-07-2014 , 10:11 AM

TheBritishLion

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 617

Sat 5 handed in a small 1-1 game.

Villain - decent solid player , has history with Hero , seen as pretty tight aggro. Stack £105.
Hero - good young player and has a loose aggresive image. Stack £100.

Action ...

Fold
Villain asks how much BB is playing and limps. (BB has ~£40)
BTN limps
I check my option. with J

BB checks option.

Flop J

I lead for £3
Fold
Villain raises to £9
Fold
I re-raise to £24
Villain shoves all in.

? Would like to know your thoughts on this. Will post results later.

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06-07-2014 , 10:48 AM

riverfish1

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 12,038

You're beat by 1 combo of 66, and 6 combos of QJ. However, there are tons of club draws as well (AcXc, JcXc, Kc9+c). I don't think I'm folding at this point 100bb deep.

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06-07-2014 , 05:43 PM

rockydawg

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 30

I feel like by 3 betting you should have made your decision already. Call and hope to dodge clubs or tell him nh when he has qj (6combos) or 66(66 unlikely only one combo). 7 combos beat you lots of combos of oesd, and flushes draws

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06-07-2014 , 06:03 PM

au4all

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 2,872

You don't give pot sizes (or mention if there's a rake) but it looks like you need to call 76 to win 200; you need 38% equity to call. If he's shoving half value hands and half bare flush draws (his combo draws are doing much better), folding is best. I'm not sure why he'd be shoving his flush draws; you don't look like you're ready to fold.

Board: Js 6c Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.677% 37.68% 00.00% 746 0.00 { Jh6s }
Hand 1: 62.323% 62.32% 00.00% 1234 0.00 { Ac2c, QdJc }

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06-07-2014 , 06:18 PM

haha_TP

grinder

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 558

Just plug in a range in an equity calculator that you think makes sense and run it.

Board: Js6cQc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 68.63% 68.47% 0.16% { 66, QJs, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, QJo }
UTG+1 31.37% 31.21% 0.16% { J6o }

Then use the formula Bet/(Bet+Pot) to see if you have the percentage needed to call. Where bet is the bet you need to call and pot is the pot before our call. I came up with 75/(75+127)= 0.37 or 37% so easy call. It's worth pointing out that if villian can overplay a hand like AQ, then you are almost 50/50 vs his range and it's an even easier call.

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06-07-2014 , 06:35 PM

haha_TP

grinder

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 558

Quote:

Originally Posted by au4all

Board: Js6cQc
Equity Win Tie
UTG 45.66% 45.56% 0.10% { AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Tc9c }
UTG+1 54.34% 54.24% 0.10% { 66, QJs, Q6s, QJo, Q6o, J6o }

If villian is thinking through the logical hands we could have for value then his shove is +EV even if we never fold.

Although I'm not sure villian would go all in with all combo draws in his range (I'm just going off the assumptions provided in the OP), if he only shoves monsters like QJ, KTcc, Tc9c, 66 then we only have 19% which is probably the more likely scenario.

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