Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
It's just that there are much easier pickings at the table, and a big hand against each other will be very high variance, so if the +EV line isn't obvious, we probably take the lower variance of the decent options.
And yet, in this hand, V takes the highest variance line preflop (flatting with the top of his range OTB), and then takes the highest variance line OTF (min-raising as a bluff).
Now that all the details are out, this hand makes no sense at all.
If V had a set, the raise makes no sense -- why risk letting H off the hook if there is history that should tell him he's beat? H came out and bet almost pot on a drawy flop -- if you've got a set, you've got him right where you want him, and you've got position -- flat and risk a scary turn, IMO. Don't raise here and risk blowing him off his hand.
If V has nothing, then the min-raise OTF is supposed to be a bluff against an opponent with whom there is lots of history? Meanwhile giving great odds to continue? It just doesn't make sense. The min raise basically just means that V is ultra-polarized -- and calling is right in either case.
I feel like H should have considered this in real time and could never have found a fold here. H should have known that V wouldn't play a set this way, and couldn't have KK+ based on preflop action (or is this wrong? Is it possible that AKPD is flatting with KK+?)...
H's line makes total sense until he folds. There were lots of "reads" posted on how "H has like 20% equity vs. V's range". Clearly, that's bogus. AKPD was just trolling the thread. Given a more reasonable range assigned to V, there's no way folding QQ could be correct.
FFS, its $188:53, 3.5:1 in immediate odds. V's "value" line makes no sense and we're getting a pretty good price to see the turn. Granted, H is OOP, but continuing in any way is going to slow V down unless he has either exactly TT or makes his flush OTT.
Even if H puts V on Jc9c exactly, we can flat the flop raise, fade a bad turn and easily get another big bet in. The pot OTT will be $241 with just $195 left in stacks.
This thread just doesn't make any sense to me.
The most confusing to me is: Why is it a shove or fold spot OTF after V min-raises?
If V's range is X and (1-X); where the X part wants H to shove, and the (1-X) part wants H to fold, then how is just flat calling, with strong SDV, bad?