Optimistically hero has around 20% equity vs V's range. V knows what hero thinks of his range.

What do you mean by this? I'm having some difficulty giving V a range where H has 20%.

(The again, I'm into the 90Minute IPA at the moment.)

TT, 88, 55, T8s, J9cc, 97cc is a little over 19.

What? 20% optimistically?
Even against a very tight-strong range of {TT,88,55,KcQc,AcKc,AcQc,QcJc,7c9c}
We still have 24% equity.

20% is not optimistic unless you put V on only trips here.
You think V has no semi-bluff draw range here?

Damn those 90min IPA's are good. Wish I could get em out here, but
only ever seen em on the East Coast.

Enjoy it, I don't think it's affecting your reasoning at all.

V is not raising any of the club draws you listed except for 97cc. V also knows hero is a post flop nit and that a bigger bet may blow hero out of the pot. V also knows that when the pot gets this big everyone's range gets very nutted and the people that checked already are pretty much done with the hand unless they have the nut hands.

Maybe you're right. Depends on how much you read into a more LAGy opponent who has been playing more aggro on the button as described. To me this equates to V's range with a lot more 45% equity draws in it than made trips, even with the action given.

So, I'm assuming something on the order of: 60% of range with 45% equity draws + 20% range of made trips with 89% equity + 15% strong combo-draws with 55% equity + 5% air = a little over 50% equity for V.

If V has the Axcc, Kxcc, and Qxcc hands in his range (which he would), why would he blow himself out of the pot by exposing himself to a shove by hero because of his small raise size? He shouldn't really be raising any of those hands given heros actions. It would be dumb. Those hands have too much equity to risk a shove by hero.

So, if you're right, that means that we have ~45% equity in the hand. If this was on the river, obvious snap call.
But seeing as how we are OOP, and still deep behind, this puts us into a serious RIO spot here as we can never call and turn bet and feel confident know that we are right.

If we call, we are setting our selves up to lose more money when we are behind, and sometimes get bluffed off the best hand when we are ahead. If we trust our reads on his range, I feel like this should be a fold. Just don't tell anyone.

Side question for all of those that want to fold:
What's the worst hand we are calling this raise with?

And if the answer is anything stronger than AA, then doesn't that give V licence to raise pretty weak here (weak meaning 12 out draws, maybe even weaker) knowing that hero will fold a huge portion of his range here?

Additional question:
What is hero's jamming range here?
How likely is it that V even needs to be worried about hero jamming?

Villain can't raise with a wide range as a bluff because of all the fish behind him that are not going to fold value hands or big draws

The fish are folding everything but 2pr+ at this point. There is only one guy who might call with a FD now (he probably would of donked flop though), but given how there was no signs that the fish liked their hands it's safe to assume they are folding.

I honestly expect any of the fish with a hand to donk the flop.

+1

-and the winners you know that do this (discuss strat/ are buddy buddy off the table) and DON'T get into nasty spots on the reg are colluding/ softplaying/ best handing etc

edit: which is way worse than the occasional angle, hit and run etc

Yeah, but I'm not considering a call here: it's either Fold or Shove.

I can definitely find the Fold button pretty easy here, but I also don't mind shoving.
Truthfully, if I was in this spot I'd probably Fold 75% of the time, unless I had more info on how V plays his draws here.

1) V and I ate definitely competitive against each other, for all that he's my poker buddy. We def have moves against each other if the situation is right.

2) V will usually play his draws pretty straight-forward, but may be more aggro when he thinks fish have few dominated draws in their ranges and the c-bet is too big to let him flat. Most of his draws would raise bigger for more FE though, unless he has some new stray from his coach.

So Garick, you want to enlighten us with a range you would be putting V on here?

Indeed the one thing that throws me a bit is the re-raise sizing, on the one hand it screams strength "stay in the hand but let's play for more." On the other hand, maybe he's just trying to play aggressively but stack sizes are a bit awkward to raise to $150.

Well. The thing is that with my range, the right decision is obv. I'd prefer to give as.accurate a read as.possible and see what range y'all come up with. After all, I could be wrong

+2

The reality is that this is a classic semi-bluff dilemma and why it works. He's risked $95. If he has air, he's putting no more money in the pot. You on the other hand are making a decision for $250. If you call, he gets to decide if he's putting you all in on the turn or get a free card. If you shove, he gets odds to call with a FD. Obviously calls with a set or even 2 pair. From a game theory basis, he's indifferent to you calling, shoving or folding. Even if he doesn't realize he's done this.

As for you, you're ahead of a FD, but behind a set or 2 pair. I'd call and check the turn. If he has the FD, he'll gladly take the free card, but you've gained in equity if the turn is a blank. If he bets again, I'm done with the hand and fold. I'm going to rely on the fact I can still have TT and 88 in my range by flatting the flop raise and even flatting the turn.

Flatting the flop raise with a set would be awful

If we flat OTF, the turn is a brick and he checks the turn I'm going to overbet the pot for value. Now that he's lost 1/2 his draw equity I'd be more then happy to stack off OTT.

But APD and OP are saying this guy has only a huge value range so just go with the live read and fold OTF. Time to pay extra attention to him to see when he starts exploiting.

I don't think he would believe that a set is in my range to flat this board, even after all the droolers folded.

That's like... too little equity.

Then V should be raising more airy hands for fun and profit.

I'm with wj. Ship it. This board is way too wet. Also, the raise size is weird.

Well, I don't make V's range there as tight as APD's. I included AcKc-AcJc (somewhat discounted due to the small raise size) and some near-air that includes the Ac (meaning that he knows that I don't have it) and a T (blocks my most likely set and gives him some equity to fall back on). The range I assigned at the table at the time gave me about 30% equity.

AncyentMarinere's range is interesting, because if we shove, V only needs 33.7% equity to call, but if we call to evaluate, we run into the problem of being OOP. A free card would be bad for us if we check; if we donk-shove turn we price out most of his draws that didn't hit OTT, but not all of them and we get snapped off by the strongest part of his range. There are not that many cards that are complete bricks, and if we check and he shoves, we really hate life.

If we agree with AM's range, I think we have to shove it now, realizing that we give his draws an OK price, but this is just a spot where getting it in and letting the cards decide is right for both players. We have too much equity to fold now, calling sucks, and he'd have too much equity with most of his range to fold if we shove.

What do we think of these ranges?

Also, what do we think V ranges us to? My suspicion is that it's heavily weighted to an overpair, with TT in there if V doesn't have it, and similarly AcKc-AcJc if V doesn't have the Ac.
With APD's range, it's a turbo-fold, LDO.

If he's raising bare A then he's also raising OESD's right? I'm shipping if that's the case.

Where did we get bare Ac in his range? I said AcTx. I wouldn't call that bare, as it blocks a ton of my potential hands.

I'm just saying that if he raises these combos of TPTK, he's intentionally turning it into a bluff, not raising for value.