Villain is an OMC (72) but drinking tea and cola zero
My first impression of him was actually that he was a typical fish, playing too many hands too passively.
I've seen him try a few bluffs though.
After sitting next to him for a few hours I did notice he's actually pretty tight, still very passive though, occasionally trying to win a hand by bluffing when he misses big draws.
It was obvious he had decades of poker experience.


Blinds 1/1 - 8 handed
effective stacks around €800

I'm UTG+1 with AA
I open to 15 (pretty standard in this game)

Villain is directly to my left and calls, which was weird.
Don't think we had played a hand together before.
I was avoiding him, since I knew he was tight and maybe he was avoiding me too since I have a very TAG image.

2 more players both bad regs in late position call.


Flop: J83r (Pot: 62)
Hero bets 20
Everyone calls

Turn: 8 (Pot: 142)
Hero checks
Checks around

River: 8 (Pot: 142)
Hero bets 60
OMC raises to 150
everyone else folds
Hero ?


In the moment this felt like a spot where I just know I'm losing when I call, but I can't fold to a raise this small with a hand this strong.

Is this villain ever raising here with a bluff? Not sure what bluffs he could have?

Would he raise with a hand I beat? AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, TT, 99?
Anything I'm missing?


Should I be betting the turn?
The 8 seems like a really bad card for me this multi way?

He could still have KK QQ easy call

This. Yeah, sometimes he has an eight but that would be super rare unless your read on him is wrong. Pay him off anyway.

It sucks when an OMC raised here. You’re gonna get shown JJ a lot but you can beat some value so call

Snapcall

Those of you who think this is a snap call: why are we not raising?

Because then we are talking other kind of narrow ranges. Like even more narrow like the ones were likely up against when our riverbet got raised. 3 betting this river is a little bit overboard imo, but still snapping against a 1/1 villain who can be buttonclicking with Jx boat or QQ/KK.

So if you had Jx here you’d raise as a bluff since you block JJ?

Are you trying to put words in my mouth or what?

I have said that i am snapcalling this raise as played and nothing else, dont put up strawman arguments on my behalf please.

It’s not a strawman argument. I am just pointing out that if we think Villain’s range is wide enough that this is a snap call, but we don’t want to raise back with the third nuts because we are afraid not much we beat will call, then we have probably found a good bluff spot.

Then its all good.

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Are we all just assuming OMC is never 3betting 99-JJ and even KK/QQ?

Turning AJ into a bluff here would be so weird.
Way too much showdown value imo?
What better hands are we ever getting to fold?

This wasn’t even hu on the river. Based on player description this is far from a fist pump call. I would call just cause of the price and the off chance he is over valuing an overpair, but I wouldn’t blame you if you folded.

This doesn’t seem like a good bluff spot because his range is so small. I don’t think he’s doing this with Jx

crying call

expect to be shown JJ

yes we assume a passive doesn't 3-bet here

Because theres a difference between receiving incredible pot odds on a call and needing our opponent to call with worse more than he us beat.

What kind of condescending bs question is that vernon

What's missing from your description is the rest of the table dynamic. If pots have been raised and gone 4+ ways to the flop recently, which it kinda sounds like might be the case, then your Villain couldn't have missed that and suited A's (like say, A8s) could easily be in his range.

I'm still calling that raise on the river, but I'm not liking it.

I keep going back and forth on the turn check though. Personally, I think Hero should bet it most of the time, somewhere in the 40-50 range.

I was indeed very surprised to see villain turn over JJ after I called.
I don't get the flat pre, nor the turn check with that monster.
He definitely missed a ton of value here.

Don't think he'd just flat with KK/QQ pre though.

Doubt he's raising Jx or even QQ/KK on the river.
He told me he put me on AA/KK and raised small to get a call. Then said if he'd raised more I probably would've folded my AA.

Checking the turn is very optional. Against so many opponents, someone can easily have an 8.

River, I'm probably 3-betting. We're beating everything except JJ and 8x. Getting value is how you beat LLSNL. Sure sometimes you value-own yourself but you'll make more money in the long run by 3-betting the river.

I know I'm now in after results, but I wanted to respond to this:

It wasn't meant to be condescending. It was meant as a serious question.

Let's take your first post upthread. You claim Villain can show up here with KK/QQ. But you're also now saying that you don't think Villain calls with worse enough of the time to justify a raise.

So let's look at Villain's range that has us beat. I give him 3 combos of JJ and that's it--I don't expect the described Villain to ever have an 8 as played. (By the way, to the OP, now that you posted results: I'm totally unsurprised that he had JJ.)

In order for a raise to be no good here, we have to be unable to find 4+ combos of hands that make it to the river this way and then call a raise from us.

Do we really think that if Villain arrived here with a worse overpair than ours, he wouldn't call if we made it, say, $310 total with our AA? We'd be asking him to call $160 to win $602.

QQ is already 6 combos. So I see two possibilities here:

1) Villain would call with 6 combos of QQ (let's even assume he doesn't get here as played with KK). In that case, we should raise.

2) Villain would arrive here with 6 combos of QQ and then fold to a reraise. In that case, we should definitely call with AA but we can probably find some bluff combos to raise him back with, like Jx, as I said earlier.

The other possibility, of course, is that we are unsure whether Villain is ever value raising with a hand we beat. THAT is when we have an easy call because our hand is too good to fold for the price we're offered. But if we are confident Villain is value owning himself, then I think we have a decision to make about calling vs. raising.

I think its more likely that sometimes villain could potentially show up with QQ or KK (or some stupid weird spaz) likely enough to justify calling here -given incredible pot odds- but unlikely enough that raising is lighting money on fire (and that's assuming we ever get called by worse if we raise)

FWIW the main thing you're missing is the pot odds. Villain's range of hands that we beat doesn't have to be a wide array of hands to make this an easy call, but villain's range of hands that we beat does have to be a wide array of hands (and hands that would be willing to call a raise) in order for us to raise. So yes it can be an easy snap call while also clearly not be a raise

I mean, we both agree we're not folding--and I also mostly agree with your first paragraph--but regarding the second paragraph, the number of combos Villain has to have here that would be willing to call a raise and that can't beat AA is so small that I don't think calling is an "easy" decision compared to raising.

Because of our pot odds, Villain only has to show up with 1 combo that we beat to justify not folding. But the way this hand played out, Villain only needs FOUR combos of hands that we beat and that would call a raise in order for us to want to raise. That is really small! So your claim that Villain needs a "wide array" of hands that would pay off is not exactly true. It's four times as large as the number of combos we'd need to see to call, but it's 4 against 1, not 60 against 15 or even 20 against 5.

I never mentioned anything about combos; wide array is relative to the spot. I don't think villain has enough worse value that also calls a raise to make raise > call; but our price is too good to consider folding given that he can potentially have some. It's a pretty simple concept