Note: The casino has weird rules: the game is 1/1/2 in that the BU and SB put in $1, the BB puts in $2 and it's $4 to go (i.e. limping means you put in $4, not $2). I also didn't keep track of the rake, so I estimated the flop pot size. Table was just opened and only a few hands in, so no info on any players and most everyone is around ~$200 effective. Villain is a mid 30's white guy with sunglasses. OTTH

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Hero is UTG+1 with A♣ Q♠. UTG limps for $4, hero raises to $12, villain (UTG+2) raises to $30, folds to hero who calls.

Flop ($63): 10♣ 6♣ 3♣

Hero checks, villain bets $50, hero jams for $170.

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Preflop: Not 2betting pre is just too nitty. I'm pretty sure we call the 3bet too, but a +2 3betting range has to be pretty strong, so is there a fold here?

Flop: To be honest, I should have considered this move more carefully, but I wanted to jam quickly to put on the pressure. In retrospect, when I consider folding, calling and raising, I can't help but think "I really wish I had AK". If we have a raising range, we have 3 combos of TT and 1 combo of AQs, AJs, and KQs. We might also have ATs and KJs if we don't fold them pre. Therefore I think we can have 6-8 combos of value. The jam is giving villain about 30% odds to call, so we can have 2-3 combos for a bluff. The best candidate is easily AKo with the Ace of clubs, giving us the NFD and extra outs to worse overpairs. But I'm not sure if I'm 4betting AKo pre? I know it sounds nitty but we're very early position, so we're dealing with very strong ranges.

If we're not raising, we're getting slightly less than 33% odds. If we count the 3 extra aces as outs, we have 12 outs. But what do we do if V jams the turn? Folding the flop feels incredibly scared money - what aren't we folding? I'm uncomfortable with all 3 choices in this spot. Any advice?

50bb deep I probably jam as well. Check/jam, as played is nice. Can’t be in that bad of shape.

Fold pre mate, his line is so strong... as played sticking it in post is fine, nothing else you can do, gotta hope you have a little FE

Raise bigger pre

Fold pre.

AP: jam gives V basically 3-2 on his call and he’s ahead plenty. So H needs FE to make this work. How much FE do we have? Minimal against Overpairs because we overcalled.

V is still uncapped and I think jam is optimistic. But we have outs! I cannot endorse the jam.

V is actually getting 2.4 to 1 on a call. Needs $120 to call a pot that has $283 in it. I think you forgot that Villain already put $50 in the pot.

So how much FE does Hero need? Let's make an assumption that V's 3-betting range is real tight...say JJ-AA and AK. Not unreasonable for a typical 1-2 player.

Hero has 36% equity against that range.

We need to solve for FE% so that

Min equity needed = FE% * 113 + (1+FE%)*36% * 340
Where min equity will equal 170 * (1- FE%), which is the expected amount of money Hero will have at risk when called.

Solving the equation above, FE% = 30%. Hero needs 30% FE to breakeven. Will he get it here? V should fold all of his AK combos except AKc. That's 11 combos. Say he calls with all of his overpairs and AKc....that's 16 combos. That equates to a 40% FE. But this assumes that V is 3-betting all of his AK combos....that may be too aggressive. But balance that out with V may fold JJ some percentage of the time, since Hero could be flatting V's 3-bet with QQ.

So against a tight player, it's close but shoving is fine. Given that V could be a LAG and 3-betting a wider range, a shove is the clear play.

It is fine and good.

Yes I think we see it the same way.

But I think it’s closer to 3-2 if eff stack at 200.