Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanishmoon
Fold pre.
AP: jam gives V basically 3-2 on his call and he’s ahead plenty. So H needs FE to make this work. How much FE do we have? Minimal against Overpairs because we overcalled.
V is still uncapped and I think jam is optimistic. But we have outs! I cannot endorse the jam.
V is actually getting 2.4 to 1 on a call. Needs $120 to call a pot that has $283 in it. I think you forgot that Villain already put $50 in the pot.
So how much FE does Hero need? Let's make an assumption that V's 3-betting range is real tight...say JJ-AA and AK. Not unreasonable for a typical 1-2 player.
Hero has 36% equity against that range.
We need to solve for FE% so that
Min equity needed = FE% * 113 + (1+FE%)*36% * 340
Where min equity will equal 170 * (1- FE%), which is the expected amount of money Hero will have at risk when called.
Solving the equation above, FE% = 30%. Hero needs 30% FE to breakeven. Will he get it here? V should fold all of his AK combos except AKc. That's 11 combos. Say he calls with all of his overpairs and AKc....that's 16 combos. That equates to a 40% FE. But this assumes that V is 3-betting all of his AK combos....that may be too aggressive. But balance that out with V may fold JJ some percentage of the time, since Hero could be flatting V's 3-bet with QQ.
So against a tight player, it's close but shoving is fine. Given that V could be a LAG and 3-betting a wider range, a shove is the clear play.