Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
Why do you think 65 is impossible? I would play 65s in villain's spot, and I'm the tightest player in most 4/8 games. I don't play it off suit but most 4/8 players do.
I didn't say it was impossible. I said it was unlikely. But even if you include all combinations of 65s, that's only 4 possibilities. That's still not that many to be worried about.
Quote:
A9 and 98 are certainly decent possibilities as well...
Maybe. I'd expect two pair hands to give us more action here. Are you counting all combos of A9 or just A9s? You could have as few as two combos of A9s or as many as six combos of A9 (two available aces and three available nines). That's still not that many hands.
The same thoughts go in for 98. Suited? 2-3 combos. Unsuited? 9 combos. There still aren't tons of combinations.
Quote:
AQ, AJ, and AT will possibly bet the river for us if we check.
Possibly. Or possibly they check through. An estimate for this would be good for evaluating the position. I tend to think that after being 3-bet on the flop, these hands end up checking through more often than they bet, especially given that the river is a scary-looking card.
If we look at AQ/AJ/AT, there are 8 combos of each. That makes 24 combos of hands that you beat that you expect to call your river bet.
For the hands that beat you, if you take all the hands listed above, it's only 19 combos. If you scale that back in any way, it's just going to get smaller.
Quote:
Aces with worse kickers will likely check behind and probably would have paid us off, but I don't think many of those raise the flop.
Maybe. Maybe not. Even going with a 50-50 shot increases the number of hands that you'll be missing value from if you check.
Quote:
The flop raise plus player read weights his holdings toward draws and aces with good kickers.
I don't agree, but you're free to take whatever assumptions you want. I would just encourage you to do the exercise of actually listing the ranges and combos to see how this weighting really looks.