Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
He seems like the type of player who bets more than he calls from the OP read.
When looking at and evaluating hands, I do not take OP's read in a vacuum, nor do I take them as being absolutely true. The information provided does not strongly enough indicate significant shifts in the underlying assumptions for me to override the basic assumptions of what a 4/8 player is like.
For example, assuming that this player can fold a pair of aces is significantly aberrant for 4/8 players. I think this player will call with any ace on the river.
For another example:
Quote:
Originally Posted by OP
I've seen this villain pull the free card play from the button twice, and I've seen him checkraise to protect his hand/build a pot/whatever. He raises strong hands preflop and seems to be positionally aware. He limps prelop a little too often for my taste, especially in late position, but whatever.
This does not tell me that villain will therefore be prone to a particularly high frequency for river bluffs. Nor that he will not raise this flop with top pair and a weaker kicker, especially if he has some sort of backdoor draw to go with it.
So none of the information provided gives me enough data for me to switch from the straight-forward play of just value betting my TPTK hand into a player that has not shown enough strength for me to believe that he has me beat a lot.
I would consider switching from a straight-forward value bet to a "let's try to get him to bluff" to be a significant over-adjustment. Under most realistic scenarios (which doesn't include the hand ranges you gave, as I don't think it's very realistic), value betting is the best play by far. This is true even when adjusting for the information from OP. You really need him to be play significantly outside the norm before checking to induce is better than betting for value.