I have a friend that I think is a very good, dangerous LHE player but he does dumb things all the time that I’d NEVER do.

Here’s an example:

Playing 5-handed 15/30, UTG opens, my friend calls, button calls, I 3-bet JJ from SB and everybody calls (15 small bets).

Flop is KJ2 with the Kd on the flop and the Jd in my hand. I bet and they all call (10 big bets).

Turn is 8d. I bet and BB and dude call (13 big bets).

River 7d. Hands I’m concerned about: QTdd, ATdd, AQdd, Q9dd, T9dd, maybe A2dd, maybe other suited T9s (and BB could have T9o here - she’s super loose). I think that’s enough out there to think twice before auto-betting, but I ultimately put a bet out. Big blind raises and my friend cold calls. I hate my hand and I feel like I’m never good now, but I look at the size of the pot and think about how ridiculous folding would be. I call.

Big blind tables 77 and my buddy tables 43 of diamonds.

Okay, we don’t need to talk about the preflop play - it’s undebatably terrible.

What we are in disagreement about, and I’m somewhat unsure on, is the flop call. He seems to think he can’t possibly fold.

I think it’s common to assign a BDFD or BDSD 1.5 outs, so we can give him a 3-outer, I guess, and he’s clearly getting the odds to draw to a 3-outer. But is this the right 3-outer? They are not all created equal. Backdoor four high flush draw? I know I have the J of diamonds in my hand, but he doesn’t. In addition to the hands I mentioned, you can add AJdd, QJdd, JTdd, and J9dd. That’s a lot of combos overflushing him - and those are just the ones that make sense reaching the river. Seems like you have to discount that BDFD at least a little bit.

So... is this a “standard” flop call? Is it profitable?

Also, for those that read my blog, player in question is The Joker.

standard

1.5 for a 1,2,3-BDSD is too high and 1.5 for a 4-high BDFD is too high.

But if you're not going to fold pre I'm not sure all the math in the world will matter.

Come on, you must've seen this a great many times. Player gets out of line, there's a big pot and he has a draw however sketchy. No one is doing math when that happens. They peel a card and if it's the right type they will call the turn as well.

Your buddy cold called preflop which typically isnt great.

If I called preflop, I wouldn’t fold the flop with a backdoor straight flush draw. If I read it right, he is getting 17 to 1.

Yeah but this is a winning player that I respect, even with all the leaks in his game. He is adamant it’s a standard peel. I just have a hard time swallowing that. He claims he knows button is always only calling so he’s unofficially closing the action and getting 20-1.

I would fold in this spot without thinking about it much. I would much rather peel a hand like A3dd even.

But I did post this because I’m not 100% sure. Where do we draw the line getting ~19-1?

Once he got involved it's a standard peel, imo. And there's nothing wrong w/ taking a flyer every now and then. I would never pick that one but I don't think it's a huge leak if he does it rarely.

It may be.

In the sense that if you shoot krokodil into your arm and it gets infected, amputating your arm is standard.

If you coldcall 43s you end up with a 4-high BDFD and a ****ty BDSD very often.

Granted it may be rarer that he gets to close the action getting a zillion to one.

The player is described as very good/dangerous. If OP can get him to admit it I think that that player looks for s spot like this every now and then simply to show the other players that he's capable of having that hand. Consider what OP said: 'dumb things all the time that I’d NEVER do.' What that player did was purposeful, not dumb.

I don’t disagree with that. His image management is elite.

Seems OK to me. He also has running trips and running two pair draws which aren't likely to complete any of the straights/sets the other players will have.

This dude just said to me, “you gotta be way up on me tonight. I won with the fives just now and that’s it, right?” not even trying to troll me.

Why would you not want him in your game? How do you know he's a winning player?

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I don’t remember saying I don’t want him in my game.

He’s my friend. We’ve shared results with each other. That’s how I know.

nvm thought it was FR

Does it really matter?
pf is atrocious and good for you to have those players at your table.

The winning players know who the winning players are.

fwiw i think the flop call is very bad because he should have worst than 17-1.
Far from certain he win when he makes his hands. (2pairs,trips,flush)
Now if you say he plays that way "sometimes" for fun and maybe have some ROI by tilting someone in future hands, i can see being it ok.

But it still a losing proposition if we only think about this hand imo.

It matters if I routinely fold in spots that are standard peels. That’s the whole point of this post. Some of you keep approaching it like it’s just a bad beat story.

Well im not a great poker player but it kinda of is because you never would be in that situation right ?
Regardless lets say you are in the BB and call 2 cold with 32s .

It comes to you on the flop for 1 bet, would you still peel ?

Like i said (maybe wrongly), i think our odds are much worse than 17-1 because the draws we peel for arent even the nutz, so we still could lose and even more so because we could get raised with BigBets on the river when we make our hands.

Like captain R said, i think even our draws to 2 pairs and trips are very bad because here we would be drawing dead for those already.

I mean callip said it best at post 4.

The only value i could see is to do it rarely and hoping to put someone on tilt when we win it.
Than maybe its worthwhile to call the flop.
Or you have some very bad players that pay too much when they are beat and do not punish you enough when they have the best hand.

How often are you coldcalling preflop with this? If you're never in this spot, then it doesn't matter whether it's "standard" to peel or not because you'll never be put in this position. Even if you end up in an equivalent spot once every few thousand hands, your decision just isn't going to matter. So there's nothing "routine" about it. (In other words, don't worry about it. You probably have more "routine" things to worry about.)

FWIW, the flop call isn't terrible. Whether or not it's profitable depends a lot on how badly everyone plays the turn and river. As a general rule of thumb, if I'm closing the action and the odds are close, I'll call. If there's one player behind me, I'll probably call unless there's a reason to be worried about a raise -- in which case I'll still think about calling. Position is huge here, and if you're better than your opponents your "true EV" is larger than what the calculation says because those calculations don't include future errors that your opponents will make.

Terrible preflop and almost as bad on the flop. He can't even know the odds because he's not closing the action. Decent chance button raises and you reraise.

That's not what he said.

It seems unduly pessimistic to be looking at hitting two pair and trips as "drawing dead." That's crazy on the MUBS end of the spectrum. If the turn and river were running 3s, you would only lose if someone flopped a set or if they're sitting on the case 3 in one of exactly three ways (K3, J3, 32), and that's waaaaaaaaay too narrow of a range to be putting people on at this point.

I'm not saying that you should put a lot of weight in those possibilities (because they're extremely rare ways for it to run out), but those are definitely adding to your value and not detracting from it. In other words, if you *knew* the turn and river would be running 3s, you should absolutely call and put a lot of money into it.

Edit: Compare this to holding QT on this board (KJ2) and knowing that the turn/river would be QT. I think you're not too happy to put a lot of money in with two pair on a KQJTx board.

I said for example here, he would be running dead to show that 17-1 should not be enough.

its a 3bet pot pf with 2 high cards that makes lot of 2 pairs and set already in those ranges, without counting straight possibility from the limpers.

and for the flush possiblity its at the bottom as well, so it still is far from certain you win with them all as well.

All i am saying is 17-1 is very optimistic in this situation because it should means you are certain to win your hand when u actually hit.

the RIO here is imo terrible.