It was all part of his devious plan when he cold called a raise first in before I ever acted.

Muuahahahhahahahahhahahhahahhahahhahahaha

Hi DD
Im kinda of astonished by your clear flop call .
Got me wondering , facing an oraise Utg 6 max , 2 c/c and a 3 bet by the BU, di hiu sdvocate a call in BB with like 54s , 64s 85s if the players aren’t experts?

The peel on the flop seem so wide you can basically call almost any 2 suited cards of in the BB when it gets 3 bet or cap when other c/c are in ...?


Why I don’t like about it is when you do make your hand and still lose, the cost from the flop call is so costly , especially on a board lIke this that hit so hard an open raisor and a 3bettor...

I'm sure DD's answer to the rest will be more insightful than anything I can put together, but this part seems straightforward to me. You need to look at what you're drawing to and compare that to the likely hands your opponents has.

Here's a part of our conversation from before:

You're just being too pessimistic.

It's true that this board hits their ranges "hard." But *how* does it hit their range? The vast majority of "hit their range" hands are just one pair hands.

But the draws you're considering are all to two pair or better and it's rare for you to improve against that range and lose. (I'm not saying it *never* happens. But it's just a small part of their range.) At a certain level, it doesn't matter whether they have AK or K7. The hand you're drawing to beats it. And that's the thing that actually matters.

By focusing on the worst case scenario (KK/JJ/KJ) and not seeing the whole picture, you're throwing away value. The overwhelming majority of the "strong" part of his range (probably somewhere between 70-80% depending on what range you give him) will lose if you hit your backdoor flush, backdoor straight, or running two pair/trips. To put it into perspective, that's better (from an odds perspective) than KK vs AK. So you should feel pretty good about those draws.

"Messing with my buddy" is always a good reason, in my book.

We’ve had some pretty epic “messing with my buddy” moments.

We aren’t even playing the same game as everyone else really.

It's like cross-booking the implied tilt odds.

If you have a particular high card, the chances of another of 6 other players having that same card is 50 percent.

http://www.thepokerbank.com/tools/odds-charts/ace-odds/

And of course, the likelihood of that other player having a higher kicker than 5 is 9 in 13.

So you are talking about 35 percent of the time or so when another player is going to have a stronger queen than queen-5.

pre flop is losing a little in a great game i suspect. losing a decent amount in a normal game without anyone real real bad.

I call the flop as well. I don't think folding is good.

What would be the threshold for the pot size to make this a fold I wonder ?

This doesn't take into account the queen on the flop, but it's still pretty close. It's about 45% given that there's a queen on the flop.

And you're unhappy that you'll be likely ahead 65% of the time when you flop a pair of queens? As long as you win pots that are (basically) at least half the size of the amount of money you lose when you're outkicked, you make money.

[QUOTE=Aaron W.;54187678And you're unhappy that you'll be likely ahead 65% of the time when you flop a pair of queens? As long as you win pots that are (basically) at least half the size of the amount of money you lose when you're outkicked, you make money.[/QUOTE]

What about the money you lose when you don't flop anything and have to fold? That's going to happen far more often than either of the above.

Sure. You can consider that. We're talking about dropping half a small bet from the small blind getting 13:1. Do you want to try to work out how often you flop a queen when you hold one of them?

I mean, this is assuming all other players play every combo of Qx, right? And they did not raise AQ/KQ+, right? I mean...

I merely assumed that I have Qx and that the board is Qxx. There are 47 cards left in the deck, and only 2 are queens.

We can think about the other 6 players as being represented by dealing the next 12 cards off the top of the deck.

To figure out the chances of there being NO queens out there, you just work out the probabilities:

Probability card 1 is NOT a queen = 45/47
Probability card 2 is NOT a queen = 44/46
...
Probability card 12 is NOT a queen = 34/36

So the probability of no queens being in any of the six hands is

45/47 * 44/46 * ... * 34/36 = 35*34 / 47*46 = 55%

So the probability that someone else was dealt a queen is 45%.

If you wanted to make other assumptions based on the actions, the calculation becomes more complicated. For example, if UTG limped and is tight, then there is a higher chance that he has a Q because his hand range is skewed more towards face cards than low cards. So it's not something you can really do without making some pretty specific assumptions.

Flopzilla is your friend.

OK, I'm just saying these % are not very useful since they don't actually model the actual % at all. Like I wouldn't make any future playing decisions based on these numbers, because a realistic number may be closer to 90% or closer to 10%.

Estimates are always dependent upon assumptions. But if you don't even know what the raw percentages are, you're less informed than if you do. For example, do you know what type of game conditions will lead you to be dominated 90% of the time? Or 10% of the time? Do you know what factors impact this? If you don't, then hand-waving and saying that it could be one or the other isn't particularly helpful.

Ultimately, you're really just thinking about ratios. Let's say that you're happy with your hand 50% of the time. Then you know that amount of money you win when you flop the best hand must be greater than the amount of money you lose when you don't. If you're happy with you hand more than 50% of the time, you don't need to win as much to be profitable. If it's worse, then you need to win more (or lose less).*

And none of this even begins to take into account any overlay you have from preflop (which is actually quite large here). I didn't run the numbers, but I would guess that flopping a top pair of queens while holding Q5o happens around 13% of the time. (It's 33% to flop any pair, so about 16% to flop a pair of queens, and there aren't *that* many ways for overcards to fall.)

Getting 13:1 means that you only need to get into those positions 7% of the time for the preflop side of things to be profitable. You're about double that.

----------

*Edit: To put this into perspective, remember that you're talking about a 7-handed flop. You make as much money as you lose if you go heads up on the flop, turn, and river. Every extra bet that goes in from any of the other 5 players starts to pad things for you. If you suck so much at postflop that you spew away chips when you have the worst of it and can't get anyone to call when you have the best of it, you probably just suck at this game. To put it another way, if you were to sit in the small blind and start every hand with top pair weak kicker in a 7-way limped pot, and you can't figure out how to make money, poker just isn't for you.

That's a lot of verbiage for basically asking me if I'm ******ed, laying out obvious pot odds concepts, and thinly disguised shots at my playing ability.

Or maybe they were intended for lawdude? Because my original assertion was that we should play Q5o in the SB, and lawdude's was that we should not. Maybe you missed that thread.

I'm making the argument about the situation being described (Q5o in the small blind) and why I think it's obviously profitable. If you want to take personal offense by it, that's on you.

With regards to the percentage argument, I'm pointing out the role of assumptions. The blind mathematical estimate is a little under 50%. It takes quite a bit to move it to 10% or 90%, and it's important to know what it actually takes for that to happen (ie, what is actually "realistic" about those numbers?).

Okay, now I feel better because I've gone back to the OP like 3 times wondering why the **** everyone is talking about having a queen on Qxx.

Yah, and your assumptions suck. To the point that I took your 45% and threw it in the garbage. I asked Google how long it would take me to go to work tomorrow morning and it said “if you drive on the wrong side of the road on the freeway, it will take you 22 min.” Uh ok, but I can’t do anything with that.

If you assume 5 other players play ATC and open-limp their entire range, then you get 45%. Uh that’s nice, but I literally can’t do anything with that number.

Please respond with another 6 paragraphs, TIA.

Captain R, the only poster to have gotten Aaron W. to admit he was wrong on 2+2. And no, it was not worth it.

Your choice. If you actually did the exercise, you might have learned something.



But either way, have fun driving on the wrong side of the road.

I’m disappointed I didn’t get another 6 paragraphs from you.

Seeing as I haven’t learned anything from your posts and you have admitted you have from mine, 1-0?

You again seemed to have missed my analogy that your calculation was akin to driving on the wrong side of the road. Since I said it was useless, then... ? I thought you were smart enough to understand analogies, but I guess I was wrong.

Cally: Sue the Russians.