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Originally Posted by Montrealcorp
its a 3bet pot pf with 2 high cards that makes lot of 2 pairs and set already in those ranges
Yes, those hands are in the ranges. But the percent of the ranges that they comprise is small. Literally: KK, KJ, JJ.
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without counting straight possibility from the limpers.
There is no straight possibility. And if you make trips/two pair, there will still be no straight possibility.
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and for the flush possiblity its at the bottom as well, so it still is far from certain you win with them all as well.
This is true. But I never claimed anything about certainty.
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All i am saying is 17-1 is very optimistic in this situation because it should means you are certain to win your hand when u actually hit.
You are talking about immediate odds. There will be opportunities to make money when you hit your hand. But I'm not saying here that you should add a huge buffer because you're right that you're going to lose sometimes when you hit. There's no really good explicit calculation that can be done here short of having a full decision tree.
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the RIO here is imo terrible.
This is unduly pessimistic. The chances of you hitting your hand AND losing are quite small due to the specific nature of the things you're drawing to. For example, the odds of you hitting a flush go down quite significantly if someone else is drawing to the same backdoor flush.
If your draw is fully live, your BDFD comes in 8/45 * 7/44 = 56/1980 = 2.8% of the time. If there's another BDFD out there, you're looking at 6/43 * 5/42 = 30/1806 = 1.7% of the time. That's 60% as often. This is a really big difference and dramatically reduces the chances that you'll actually end up in your nightmare scenario.
You're not wrong to contemplate the possibility of bad things happening, but your outlook seems to be more pessimistic than what the reality seems to indicate.