Limit: $2-$4: five players

Pre-flop: KW on BT w/ A7
Action: UTG folds; CO calls; KW raises; SB folds; BB calls; CO calls

I’ve played 46 hands with CO at this table. At 63/10.9/42.5/46.9 I expect a very wide range and I try to isolate his limp in. BB is 31.9/6.5/47.5/24.5/138.


Flop: (6.5 small bets) 7T7 (three players);
Action: BB checks; CO checks; KW bets; BB folds; CO raises; KW calls.

I flop trips with best kicker. I call, planning to raise the turn.


Turn: (5.25 big bets) 6 (two players);
Action: CO bets; KW raises; CO 3-bets...

What should KW be thinking/doing now?

call and raise safe river imo

...because I'm concerned that I'm behind at this point? Only TT or T7 put me behind, and neither seems probable. Or do I just call because I'm concerned I'll be drawn out on?

I think I'm ahead here so a) should I be thinking differently?; and b) If I'm ahead is calling still the right play? Am I just trying to squeeze one more bet out of him?

I think the decision to raise or just call down is a lot closer than it looks cosmetically, actually. The 98 just got there and I suspect a loose dude with high aggression / WTSD for his looseness (albeit in a small sample) is going to be x/r the flop w/ a hand like that. I also don't expect these player types to go nuts w/ a ten and to lolplay 7x.

The biggest issue with raising again is, are you calling if he hits you one more time?

I think I just 4 bet the turn if I want to put more action in

98 / 76 / 66 also make sense, just FYI. I'd expect a lot of opponents like this to just call flopped boats because traps give them an erection, and I'd expect his turn 3 bet to be quite polarized between premium holdings and things like random diamond draws / J9 / etc.

I still A7 is strong enough given this opponent to 4 bet the turn, but we should tread lightly.

^^ see above. Learn how to read hands and which hands beat you.

Another benefit to 4 betting now is that if the river is a blank and our opponent donks, we can now just call and lose 5 big street bets if he has us beat (assuming cap HU), while still getting the same value if ahead. IME, when someone has a huge hand that they fastplay on the turn that still wants to put aggressive action in, they often don't wait to go for a check raise. By popping river, we might get three bet. I'd rather avoid that situation without history.

Phunk, I think you are right. I was lazy about this back when I played 15 years ago. Seemed like then there were so many fish that I could win substantially just by playing good hands and being somewhat competent post-flop. This is a skill I need to develop more.

As it went, I did 4-bet and he called. I was happy so hear that a 4-bet here was not nuts. What I did NOT do was "tread lightly" on the river, as you wisely suggest, and that was just foolish. He showed down the 76. That's one of the worst hands I played last month.

What's important is figuring out how he thinks about poker a little bit more, given what he showed down.

So he flopped trip 7's and check raised the flop. That's actually fairly unusual for these kind of limpy pre, somewhat spewy post types. So we make a note and aren't raising turn w/ AT+ as cavalier as we normally would against these guys.

He went into calldown mode when you 4 bet with a hand on the line between calldown and more action. Still not remarkable, but know you won't be getting donked into or check raised often at all after all of this.

More importantly, think of his range. You didn't put 76 in it at all, so if he has 76, he'll have other, stronger hands. Was it suited? Offsuit?

So until proven otherwise, we should start converging on an assumption that he has plenty of 7x in his range when he limp/calls pre and check-raises this board, and that he'll be likely to three bet it.

Really, just a tough break that he hit a 3 outer on you, but it was the appropriate amount of action readless (and going forward, sounds like the appropriate amount of action). If he shows up w/ 76, why can't he have K7, Q7, etc, and stick a turn 3 bet in? Or even like 87/97 that has trips + a gutter and decides that he has enough of a fallback plan to keep jamming? That's what you have to think about.

When I say it's one of the worst hands I played last month, I specifically mean the river. Instead of treading with caution I made up my mind that he was most likely jamming a worse hand on the turn and the last card didn't help him and I paid off a lot of extra bets on the river. Probably should have c/c'd and saved those bets.

But if he c/r the river when you cap the turn , you fold ?

I want to but I most likely (edit: almost certainly) don't (as people really should never be putting a 6th big street bet in with a hand that can't beat A7 on T77-6-4 against me unless they're running a completely bonkers bluff). I've just seen people show up with hands that they shouldn't have too often.

Exploiting the artificial cap when you have a thin raising hand like this should be leveraged against an unknown. If you're against a dude who might actually fold a hand if you 4 bet turn, I like delaying a lot more.

I was going to post exactly this.

I had to go back and look - CO's hand was 76o (not even suited) fwiw. I haven't checked yet but that probably falls in the range of a 63 VPIP.

The way to think about it is this way:

So he fastplayed a 7 on the flop (interesting as a lot of limpy fish also are expert slowplayers at this level). 76o is likely in that 63% of hands preflop, so logically, T7o is in it as well. But his 7x range is really 76o+ and 74s+, so that's a lot of 7x. Let's say he check raises all of those on the flop. Does he check raise 66 and his 16 98 combos 100%? Then you have your worst case scenario, which is ~ 48% equity. Let's say he's sane and only check raises 9d8 and 9c8c and 6d6c. He'd three bet all of this on the turn, but you have 59.5% equity. Your true equity is probably closer to this 59% number. So because we have an equity edge (and a buffer to account for him folding a hand we beat at some point over 50%; remember, we want to make money on our raise), we raise again.

Your turn raise says "I have trips" to a bad player and he 3 bets anyways saying "I don't care if you have trips." This is why I would call down and raise river improvement.

Disagree, a player (good or bad) could easily interpret this raise as an overpair or a good ten.

KW, in the future, try not to ever post the results if you want to receive objective, unbiased responses.

I think it's close between 4 betting turn or just calling down, but I'm having a hard time deciding because I'm biased by the results.

Rodeo,

Yeah, I think DougL pointed that out also. Thanks. I've corrected my ways.

i just call and reevaluate river

Just call.

A little math with reasonable holdings is warrented ITT.

You lose to:

98 is 16 combos, 66 is 3 T7 is 3, TT is 3, that's 25.

You beat:
7{Q,J,9,8,5,4,3,2}, 4 each, that's 4 * 8, but I'm going to take 75% of that because some of those unsuited are mucks even at low stakes games, and 7-rag is perhaps a muck even suited. 75% is generous So, that's 3 * 8 = 24

You chop:
A7, 3 aces

Maybe some small adjustments to the numbers here or there (I haven't touched on hitting a 4 outer if A7 is behind, etc.), but my prelim indicates just call down. Perhaps alternatively 4-bet and check river unimproved if you can slow him down.

Please tell me this kind of math is typically done away from the table between rounds. I certainly have not tried to calclulate the % of range that beats me vs. I beat while making the decision.

Given how typical 2/4 fish play, giving him all 16 98 combos is pretty damn pessimistic.