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When you suspect AA might be out there When you suspect AA might be out there

08-11-2024 , 09:50 AM
UTG+1, MP and HJ are all players I've played with for years and have varying degrees of holes in their games.
BB is someone I'd never played with before and said he was sitting our game while he was waiting for his NL seat to open.
UTG+1, MP and HJ all limp. I'm BTN with AK and I raise. SB coldcalls. BB says, "16". The dealer of course had to correct him and say 12. Everybody coldcalled. When action got to me I said, "*I* am going to raise it to 16!". BB didn't look bothered by it one bit. SB coldcalled and BB said, "24". The dealer of course had to explain that 16 was the cap. Everybody of course called.

6 players, 12BB, flop 632
Not surprisingly, SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1, MP and HJ call.

If BB has aces as I suspect, I'm for all practical purposes drawing dead.
If BB has kings, I'm drawing to 3 outs and a backdoor straight draw, and again I have to be concerned about the possibility that a flush is out there.
If BB has queens, I might actually have 4 clean outs plus 2 partial outs.
If BB has AK we're praying that we can make one pair and it's good and/or none of the other 4 villains make a pair.

I can't possibly imagine him having anything else, and as enthusiastically as he wanted to make it 24, my money is on aces.

How many more chips are we putting in this pot on the flop? If we don't pair up on the turn how many more chips are we putting in? Do we even consider calling a river bet with no pair?

To continue the action, everybody called the flop bet.
6 players, 15BB, turn 9
SB checks, BB bets, UTG+1 and MP fold, HJ calls. Getting 17 to 1 do we call here? In the game I called and SB folded.

3 players, 18BB, river J BB bets, HJ folds. I'm getting 19 to 1 closing the action.
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 11:34 AM
Ugh. Just ugh. Such a big pot. Call and pray he has the AK spades?
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 08:06 PM
I would probably just fold on the flop. You’re drawing real skinny and you may be even drawing dead.
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 08:33 PM
I also vote folding flop. This is one of the nut worst flops for our hand. No backdoor whatsoever and our pair outs aren’t even always good.

On the river… yeah I get that it’s a huge pot but I just think he’s never taking this line with AK. Honestly I probably fold turn too.
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 08:45 PM
Folding the flop isn’t great. You need to play against ranges and not hands. If he had qq, folding the flop is a disaster
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 09:27 PM
It’s not heads up man there are three other hands in there
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
Folding the flop isn’t great. You need to play against ranges and not hands. If he had qq, folding the flop is a disaster
Let’s assume villain has QQ which is optimistic based on the action. We may still only have two clean outs; a non spade King. A non spade Ace is a dirty out. One of our opponents can certainly have Ace small suited and they paired their kicker.

Maybe someone who is better with the math can calculate what our equity is based on ranges.
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 09:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
It’s not heads up man there are three other hands in there
No one has raised, you don’t think he has any equity getting 30 to 1?
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-11-2024 , 10:38 PM
Does rio count for nothing here? If we hit an ace or king we’re kind of obligated to take it to showdown.
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote
08-12-2024 , 09:49 AM
If his range is exactly AA then sure, fold. But we are closing the action here basically, if we were Utg + 1 it may be a fold.

I don’t think we are obligated to call down multiple bets if we hit and there is significant action
When you suspect AA might be out there Quote

      
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