6/12 at Bay 101, I think 7 were dealt into the hand.

Villain is in BB. I've played about 3 hours total with him. He's an okay player, not a donk, and fairly straightforward.

Cards come out, UTG limps, and there's another limper.
I have A8o on the BTN.
I think about raising. SB is probably the best player at the table. I don't think he cares what I do. If he wants to play he will 3-bet me, if he doesn't want to play he'll fold regardless of what I do.

So I just called. SB folds, BB checks.

4 to the flop (4sb) of 8 5 3r
Checks to me and I bet, only BB calls.

Turn is 2r (3bb) and BB leads.

Can I fold my crappy TP here? I don't THINK he would lead by just getting a draw, but I haven't really played long enough with him to have a good idea.

Either raise or fold pre flop depending on blinds tendencies.

Short answer: NO!

Long Answer: You don't have a 'crappy TP' here, you have TPTK. Sure, he could have 22-55, but he also has a bunch of 78 and 89 in his range, as well as some discounted 8Ts, J8s etc. You have way too much hand to fold here. I call turn and call river or bet if checked to.

There could be some merit to r/f the turn, but I wouldn't be comfortable enough to do that when you could see the showdown for the same number of bets.

And ya, raise it up PF.

I raise it preflop but I think overlimping is better than folding. By the time you get down to A6o or so, it's probably better to fold than overlimp.

Don't fold. Your kicker is probably good and if he has random 2 pair, GG. Call down, b/f if checked to.

I usually fold this if the blinds are callers. Dim it for 4 or 5 players

Why not raise for free showdown if you're planning to call anyways?

I suggest fold pre[*] as played raise turn due to previous action.(delayed semi OOP) the turn is a card that misses your announced range and as far as you opponent is concerned you could be barreling high cards and if you just call he can really lose much and is in a good place to balance against you .

besides he prolly doesn't have a balanced 3b range here (turn) [this increases the size of your n-1 range] so if he comes again you can dump it. [your in the bottom of your increased n-1 range]therefore you are not getting moved off your hand so you dont really lose equity that way and in fact may gain some folding equity from him through granted outs.

[however if you expect this assumption not to be true or expect a turn 3b from him, obviously dont raise. you make more by flatting to his entire range]

Furthermore it looks like you likely have his draw counterfeited. (he has a rag ace as well) if an ace falls he locked in for more. if he has 2 weird pair your getting a good price to redraw against that . call, b/f lines work well here due to limited pot size. I however like to keep the lead. sucks if he has a set though but you have some outs against that.

what id really like to know is how you feel any unique quaitys his PF calling range may have (for example overly ace heavy flats big pairs etc.) these weird edges or key hands can tell boat loads about their particular strategy quirks.

[*] raggeddy aces in multiway pots are not my idea of a great way to make money in high raked games. many players get into spew spots with them (as this spot may be)

if you are buying folding equity why not use it. raising with the plan to check it down sacrifices equity in many cases. now dont think I mean you should never check down in these situations because sometimes it will undoubtedly be correct to do so. However in many cases it will not be and you will lose equity. There fore you should closely examining the ramifications of the river card and the situation and act thusly. rather than engage in some wholesale checking to showdown. Furthermore you have enlarged the pot so you should be betting for value lighter and also calling lighter if bet into. not wishing to do so (** betting or calling lighter because of increased pot size) due to several factors may indeed preclude turn raising altogether regardless of your ability to see a free showdown or not. (**due to the fact that you may end up value owning yourself if you do raise)

this comes into play here as well since you are making the pot larger by turn raising. my intent is not to showdown raise in a wholesale manner here as there are many card and situational combinations where I will absolutely bet again (some for value and some as a bluff) mostly due to the nature of this particular board and what Ive learned about flop texture models both from book papers and my own thoughts and observations

You can't fold the turn, because villain may be donking a pair and a straight draw (everyone checked to you on the flop, so your range is weaker/wider than just 8x). You also have lots of outs vs. most 2-pairs, and you have a straight draw as well. So folding is completely out of the question.

Your top pair is not weak, it's the strongest possible top pair.

This.

Some players i would raise this, some I call. I'm not folding this unless someone is truly special.

Seriously? Re-read my description of villain. I'm not playing Jon Locke or Death Donkey.

WRT the turn donk, wouldn't he rather cr to blow me off of overcards, etc? That is, if he were capable of such a play, which I don't think this villain is, nor is 95% of the typical 6/12 bunch at Bay.

Preflop, agree with callipygian. I prefer to raise, but calling is better than folding. Well, with the rake, it might be close, but calling is fine.

Turn: If he is completely straight forward and always has two pair plus, you're supposed to (exploitatively) fold. BUT... He might be betting a weaker 8. Or a combo hand. And if he does have two pair, you have outs. Most of the time, he'll turn over two pair or straight, and you might feel like a dope. In the end, You shouldn't kick yourself for not making a tough exploitative fold.

a turn c/r costs him two bets and if you 3b he loses his equity because he may have to fold and even if you call he can not try to bluff you off on the River.

I see this bet as part value part bluff. . as noted earlier pair and draw he might have a weaker ace and it might be paired so if he blows you off one he can pick y up 1/2 the pot if the board pairs or if the wheel hits. also A6 could play this way

fold pre.

Probably because this is the worst option he could have taken. He gets three bet by better and if your plan works means he misses a bet on the river

FSD should only be considered when there is a chance to fold a better hand

This was my thinking, tell me if it's wrong:
In that spot, there would be three reasons for a raise.
1) To fold people out. There were 2 limpers and the BB with money in the pot. IME in this game, people don't fold for 1 bet pre if they have money in the pot. So the SB is the only guy I could fold out, and as I mentioned, this guy was a strong player and wouldn't care what I did in front of him.
2) To build a pot with an equity edge. I figured any equity edge I had, if any, was very small.
3) To take the initiative. Going 4/5 ways to the flop, in LHE, initiative without the other 2 things wasn't going to mean much. I would rather get the info of the other players' actions in a neutral environment.

Yeah, I guess I was MUBSy and generally expect my opponents to have the best possible hands given the board. I am a pessimist in general and need to take that out of my poker.

I typically fold preflop but it's only a small mistake at worst to overlimp. I suspect all three options are reasonably close in EV. I would call his turn bet and see the river.

Do villains always 3-bet better hands? I mean sets and a straight would but we're basically drawing dead versus those anyways. Many typical villains are going to slow down with their 23o, 53o, 82, combo draws, weirdly played 99, etc. If we spike an A or 8 on river we earn extra bet.

3 bets at 6/12 is a straight and probably 64 to boot. The absolute worst hand I could imagine getting 3-bet by is 88 at these stakes.

Two pair donks because he's gonna call down your obvious set if raised.

We have a gutshot, raising turn and folding to a 3 bet (from hands that would lose to a Rivered straight) would be a disaster.

Derp. I missed the gutshot. I'm fine with calling turn.

The UTG limping range should determine if you should play this hand or not pre. If he has big Aces or big hands in his range you should fold. If he has a loose limping range then just over limping is fine given the read that this flop will go off a least 4 ways.

I would just call down the turn donk.

FYP

It's fine to play A8 if he has AK in his range as long as he also has A2 and 86 and other hands we crush.

If you're going to fold the turn then it's probably better to fold this pf IMO. I'd call the turn in this spot. The turn bet to me doesn't show that the bettor has a better hand. With a good hand and enough uncertainty I'm not going to fold.

Villain is big blind, not utg.