Tight Lady limps in mp,
I raise qtdd co,
Sb calls,
Bb who has not gotten out of line so far 3b,
We all call

Jd7d8x,
Bb bets,
Mp calls,

What is my plan from here until the river?

Should I
A) call
B1) raise and bluff turn ui
B2) raise to free card attempt

I would raise here with your equity and being IP. If BB 3bets and the lady calls I think I would even cap it and try to take control of the hand. He's not going to love it if he has AA KK and you're capping this flop and it's only really going to suck for you if he has AKdd.

OTT if it X to me, it depends on the flop action and live reads. If BB didn't 3b flop, I would barrel again although not on an A or K since he could have AK. Betting a Q, J, T or 9 would make things pretty uncomfortable for AA KK.

If he 3b you OTF I would consider taking the free card.

Nice analysis, says it all right there.

Fist pump raise imo. You don't get draws like this in position often. Every bet that goes in on the flop is to your benefit.

Off topic, anyone else fold pre?

Never

I would not fold pre at low stakes vs 99% of opponents. At these stakes, a tight lady who limps is potentially exploitable past the flop as it fits the weak/tight stereotype. I am also jamming the flop, and if it's just called on the flop, I'm inclined to turn it into a bluff and continuing the turn/river, because AK will c-bet and fold the river unimproved. There's no card removal of AK, so I feel like there's enough AK in their range to justify following through on the turn/river. If I think the tight lady can't fold a pair of eights then I don't do it.

In retrospect, I should have asked "anyone else JUST LIMP ALONG pre"? Because if we limp QTs we're likely to get a 5-way pot with second-nut position. When I raise in this spot I expect BTN and SB to fold but BB to come along, and I expect to be behind the tight limper, so I don't like playing an easily-dominated hand shorthanded. Even when we do flop a Q or a T our hand is vulnerable if not already beaten, and we only flop one of our ideal draws about 1 time in 8. I don't like our implied odds.

In other words, we clearly shouldn't fold but I don't see raising being better than calling.

To even consider isoing the tight woman hoping she'll give up a better hand postflop I'd need to have seen her do it several times already.

If I'm exposing a hole in my game I'm willing to listen to criticism.

Had tight lady raised it would be an easy fold but when she open limps, I believe it is Raise>Call>Fold. Now when SB cold calls and BB bumps it to 3 and tight lady calls 2 cold, QTs should easily have better then the 8% equity needed to call.

Ranges for BB and TL seem fairly well defined going forward, although I am unsure what SB is doing.

folding QTs here would be like folding a pp in the bb vs a raise..terrible.

It would take a very unusual set of circumstances for me to overlimp pre flop. I would need to know that she limps only a very tight range and that she does not fold a lot post flop. That is not a typical combination of traits. You can also value bet a little bit less thinly on the river than usual against these players.

The key ingredient is gaining a greater share of the pot by knocking-out the blinds as well as hiding your hand, so you should raise with equity, even as a slight equity underdog in the range-vs-range battle against the limper. On hiding your hand, if you start to have a limp range, and a raise range, it is harder to hide your hand. If I did start limping, it would be because of some very poor post-flop play on the part of one of the blinds, and I still have a hand that can hit the board, but I do not have enough equity to raise to isolate the limper. So the lower suited connectors and one-gaps *might* be worth limping in very specific circumstances, but it's better to dump it overall. There may even be circumstances to raise it to exploit the tight limper.

I doubt there is a lot of value with QTs, and beginners should definitely fold these marginal spots as they learn the game. The value here is slim. Also, the smallest pocket pairs have equity, but are overvalued by a lot of players imo. If someone raises six from the button (utg 9 handed), my default is to simply pass with 22,33,44, and maybe even 55. If I'm responding to aggression, then I'd adjust my strategy and play the pocket pairs, but it certainly isn't my default versus what should be a tight raise pre.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
PLAYER_1 AxJx-Ax8x,AxJy-Ax7y,KxJx-Kx8x,KxJy-Kx9y,QxJx-Qx9x,QxJy,QxTy,JxTx,Jx9x,JxTy,TT-22,Tx9x,Tx8x,9x8x,8x7x
PLAYER_2 QTs
1541073600 trials (exhaustive)


All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
AxJx-Ax8x,AxJy-Ax7y,...	55.0077%	52.3520%	5.3112%	806783536	81850270
QTs	44.9923%	42.3367%	5.3112%	652439794	81850270

PQL
If it's much tighter than this, I might just fold. I am folding Q9s.

I'd never fold the Q-10s in low limit games w/ position. And I don't mind the pf raise either even against a tightish limper. You've got to play SOMETHING and this is one of those things. And, esp against bad players, I expect to make better post flop decisions.

How much equity do you think you need to raise here?

Edit: also I odds oracle. I’m jealous I couldn’t figure out how to post from the desktop client to the forum. But I may be simple jack in that regard.

Everyone saying "fist pump raise", what do you hope to accomplish?

I expect a low stakes player to have a hand that can three bet this board a lot, and we're still going to be a 4:3 underdog against the range of JJ+.

OP, what do you think BBs range is here. Is there any AK/AQ we can potentially barrel this player off? What are their postflop tendencies?

I thought the majority of the fist pump raise was directed at pre flop.

Back to the original question, clearly our hero should not fold here so the question is should he overcall or pop the flop.

While if he truly has 12 clean outs (I doubt either a Q or T are outs) and all the outs are still live in the deck, he would have 45% equity now, but I think it’s prudent to discount some of his outs and assume he has about 40% equity.

The case for calling: 14 SBs in pot, hero calls. In this scenario our hero would net 5SBs (15 SBs *40% less the 1 SB call), 6SBs if the Small Blind over calls as well.

BB really likes his hand, and TOL seems to have something as well. Both are likely ahead of you right now, and I’m hard pressed to think either of them will fold if you raise, although SB might. The Best Case Scenario if you raise is you get 3 callers, in that case we are looking at 20SBs*.40- 2SB or net 6SBs. This is the same as we get if we just call. But remember, that is the best thing that could happen. You have now reopened the action to people that seem to like their hands and something far worse could happen like SB folds, BB 3 bets, and look out if TOL comes alive and caps (which would be a monster line and 77 and 88 are solidly in her range). Should that happen, I would say your real equity would be something like 30% and you are looking at 24 SB * .3 – 4 or net 3.2 SBs.

So is calling equal to or better than raising.

The only benefit to raising would be to get to the river without having to pay for the turn, which would save you 2SBs if it works, and costs you 5+ if it doesn’t.

I think the best thing right now is to call along.

Whether or not we like how he's gotten there OP's flopped too big to just call a flop bet. Raise flop, don't bet turn UI, imo.

The question is whether we make more money by calling to keep the small blind in. If we raise and knock out the small blind and then get three bed heads up while behind, that is bad. If we raise and the small blind takes two to the face, that is good. If we raise and ends up heads up with the B.B. nonthree bet, kinda neutral

Absent a reliable read we don't know what anyone is going to do. I think a flop raise is mandatory.

We surely not in equity deficit on the flop so raise ...
Every bet that goes in makes you money and some better hands can fold .

I mean what’s the point of raising pf if not to push our equity when we hit a great flop ?

No idea as I'm not from the area. If I were to guess, it'd be weighed more heavily towards monsters.

What guidelines do you think we should have for raising the button here? Is 45% equity vs limper roughly too high or too low? And do you have a limping range here, because I'm torn about limping. Raise/fold seems to hide your cards best, but there are plenty of flop sensitive hands out there that benefit from overly passive play.

Stox recommends 47% equity in a 3-bet scenario to isolate, so I postulate about 45% against a tight (presumably passive) lady. Though I have nothing to back it up really.

Definately one of my better buys is PPT (professional edition). There should be a button there labeled "Output...". click on it, and there's a drop-down for forums. I just squeezed out a range that QTs has roughly 45% against.