I feel like I played this hand terribly. I've cut out the river, as I'm more interested in how I played the hand leading up to it.

The initial raiser has been a bit laggy, so preflop I wasn't sure if this was a raise or fold. Instead of doing either, I feel like I settled for what was probably the worst choice by calling. I think in this spot I should have raised, and folded against a tighter player.

On the flop, I have a gutshot, backdoor flush draw and two overs, though given the action pre-flop the queens may not be good, so I effectively have about 9-10 outs. I'm getting 12 to 1 pot odds, so I think my call here was fine.

On the turn, I've now got a monster draw with a double gutshot, flush draw and overs, though with a raise the value of the overs is likely diminished to only 2-3 outs, giving me a total of about 17-18. This makes me think I should have raised here instead of simply calling, given that we were three handed and my equity was over a third of the pot. The reason I didn't was that I was afraid of pushing SB out of the pot. I am not sure this reasoning is very sound, however. Is a raise better here?

Poker Stars $2/$4 Limit Hold'em - 10 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: Hero is MP3 with Q A
4 folds, MP2 raises, Hero calls, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Hero calls

Flop: (10 SB) J 5 T (3 players)
SB bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls

Turn: (6.5 BB) 8 (3 players)
SB bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls, SB calls

easy 3bets pf esp vs laggy guy. it would change the whole hand.

as played, flop is ok, or a raise

turn, where are you getting 17-18 outs from? remember they overlap. also i doubt your pair outs are good at all. so 3b would be not good imo.

The turn: 9 from the FD, 6 from the double gutshot makes 15 minimum. 3 queens and 3 As at 1/3-1/2 value is another 2-3 for 17-18.

okay, i thought you weren't cancelling out the overlap cards, sorry.

with this action on all streets i would assign 0-1 outs for your overcards, so call it 15 outs to be safe. 3betting isn't mathematically bad if everyone called and no one reopened the betting, but like you said that doesn't look extremely likely. so i think calling is the better play.

Definitely easy 3 bet preflop.

But as played I just call flop but I am a nit. There is probably some merit in raising but I dont really know what it is going to do for us. No one is going to fold and we just end up pay 2 bets (possibly 3) to draw to gutshot and possibly tainted overs.

I just call turn. I think the math is close on raising turn if both players call but i really dont think its in our favor.

Definitely iso the LAG PF with a 3bet. Since MP2 didn't cap PF, I put him on big cards (AK, AQ, KQs) and am more worried about SB. Then, when SB bets flop, I put him on a pair (vs. AK), so I need A outs to possibly win this pot. Therefore, I'd raise flop hoping SB 3 bets, forcing out MP2 and cleaning up A outs, at least somewhat. He could have AA (3 ways), but he'd have 6 ways for KK and 3 for QQ, making a hand we beat with AA about 3x more likely. If he did have AK, oh well...

fwiw, I don't think SB has JJ 'cause he'd probably try the c/c flop, c/r turn fish play so common at 2/4...

As played, I agree with calling turn, and then take off if you hit on the river.

Let me try to channel Clarkmeister on the turn. Is there any chance to blast KQ or AK out of the pot on the turn? If so, could you clean up 3-6 outs with a turn raise? Your action so far says medium PF hand, PP or suited connector. The fact that you called the flop and 3B the turn should scream you hit a monster. OTOH, MP2 already made this play, so is there any chance of re-stealing from him?

In this game, I think the answers are bad for your hand. You can probably just call here and see a river. If you spike a K or a flush, go to town. You have to think hard about hitting a 9 if it comes to you 2 cold.

BTW. Listen to BBB; 3B 100% PF in the situation described. You kill a LAGs range, pretend you're ahead and play that way.

Doug
PS. MUBS says that K9 would consider itself a good hand at this point. I might 3B PF that hand versus a field with a LAG raise and a cc, PF.

On your point about 3balling turn. Getting 6:1, I don't think KQ is going anywhere...AK probably calls because it's AK! Interesting thought on K9 in the SB, but would he lead out on flop? I guess he would since he repped strength PF.

I think it's interesting that both villains have had an opportunity to reraise after betting/raising, and have just called each time...hmmmm.

If river is A,K,Q,9 or a heart (21 outs, right?) I'm bet/raising river. For that matter, is a turn 3 bet really a value raise?

Great, thanks for all the help. I guess I didn't play it as badly as I thought, except for the big mistake of calling pre instead of raising.

* grunch *

Preflop:

I'm not sure if AQs is ever a fold preflop vs a relatively late openraiser by default. If he were very tight folding should be considered though. Not sure I'd do that though. 3-betting often gives you some fold equity postflop.

As you say MP2 has seemed laggy, a 3-bet to get it HU with him with your very good hand is the way to go here, like you thought retrospectively also.

Flop:
Flop call is very easy. The GS to the nut straight is more than enough as it is.

I don't think raising for free card is good here as your relative position to aggressor sets you up to gain maximum if you hit your draw.

Turn:
Calling is best IMO. 3-betting here would look very strong and with MP2 yet to act SB could indeed be scared to fold the hand, isolating you against MP2 who surely must have a better hand than you currently.

I doubt 3-betting would clear many outs for you. KQ probably isn't folding, although AK/AJ just might.

Definitely 3-bet PF as everyone has said. I like the flop since that board is deceptively bad for us in a 3-bet pot.

I think the turn is close but I just call here. I doubt a raise is going to clean up any outs or get any better hands to fold. Just call and hope to spike.

But yeah, the hand plays way different if you 3-bet PF.