4/8 game, I Am EP Fold to me

Look at AA I raise, folds to loose but somewhat tricky SB who calls and somewhat aggro monkey in BB calls.

Flop is KQ8r

Checks to me I bet.

Turn is a 2 bringing a heart draw

Checks to me I bet, SB raises, BB insta calls. There 9 BB in the pot for me to call one more. I put SB on2TP, or a set of 8s. Put BB on 2P, or FD

I tank briefly and fold.

You are getting 9.5 to 1 here and you have 8 outs against KQ so it’s a must call. Toss it done Jt of hearts or k3hh or uwhatever and it’s an easy call. Especially if he is aggro

If you’re folding AA here you’re folding way too much. You’re also closing the action. I’d call, call most rivers, and fold for two bets on pretty much any river card.

You’re closing the action as well. You’re never dead here either unless one has JT and the other a set of 88. The instacall from bb weighs him towards flush draws because he would at least consider a 3bet with a value hand here given how draw heavy the board is.

Yeah I post all the hands I screw up. I was originally gonna call and evaluate river. Pots odds were good.

River was T

SB bets, BB calls.

SB shows Q8

BB shows KTo for the 2P winner.

So I call the turn, river action, easy river call?

That’s a pretty crappy river but you are still getting 12.5 to 1. If I knew the players well enough I might find a fold, but I’d call as a default

Loosely related to the topic, one thing I've seen several times in my games is if a villain flops a monster, they wait for the turn to raise. I can only remember about 5 specific times it's happened but I feel like it's happened more often than that. I've pretty much gotten to the point where if a villain raises the turn I automatically think, "Now wait - did the TURN help him or did he slowplay a flopped monster?" I'm not sure what the villains are thinking when they do that, but I can only guess that they think it will result in a bigger pot or that it disguises their hand/makes it look like the turn card helped them not the flop.

In this specific hand, had SB raised the flop, he'd have faced BB with calling 2 cold - on a KQ8 board there are a LOT of hands where BB could have 4 or 5 outs - AJ, AT, J9, T9, KT, QT, K9 and plenty of others, i.e. 98, 87, 86 etc. If my math is right, BB would be facing 4.5 to 1 and therefore need, what, an 8-out draw to call profitably break-even. There are SOME implied odds here but I don't think BB could call profitably with a 5-out draw there..

Anyway, by waiting for the turn to raise, he faced BB with 3.5 to 1 odds (if my math is correct), with less implied odds. But he took a BIG gamble that hero would bet the turn.

My rule of thumb is to not even consider waiting for the turn to raise unless a) there is no opportunity to protect my hand on the flop and b) there are a lot of turn cards that could flipflip my equity between the flop and turn. I just don't see either of those situations for SB in this hand, I think he had a case of fancy play syndrome.

What's funny is BB played the hand even worse than SB and ended up winning it.

This post was admittedly more conversational than productive but I hope it was at least entertaining.