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09-23-2023 , 10:43 AM
7 Handed 4/8
SB is old lady who plays too many hands, but gets sticky and plays decent PF
BB is MA native american also too many hands but plays pretty aggressive PF

I am UTG JsJx raise, MP call, SB and BB call

Flop is KsQx9s

Check, check,I bet, MP fold, SB BB call

Turn is Jx

Check Check, I bet, SB calls, BB raises, I 3 bet, SB hesitates then calls 2 cold, BB gives me a look, then calls

River is 6s. SB fires, BB calls, I call.
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09-23-2023 , 02:20 PM
I check flop. I donít 3bet turn. Call river is whatever since you bloated up the pot so much but I find it hard to believe you ever win here.
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09-23-2023 , 03:41 PM
Three bet turn is not great
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09-23-2023 , 08:10 PM
flop bet is bad, does nothing but get you owned

turn 3 bet doenst make sense either. someone is repping the straight dont reopen the betting. just call down and see.
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09-23-2023 , 09:50 PM
The way I play this spot is to check flop, just call turn if there is a bet, and then call river again if there is another bet and I donít fill up
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09-23-2023 , 11:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
The way I play this spot is to check flop, just call turn if there is a bet, and then call river again if there is another bet and I donít fill up
i like this.

4 handed flop bet ranges are much tighter than heads up and 3 way ranges.
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09-24-2023 , 12:23 PM
It didn't feel right which is obv. why I posted.

I almost didn't bet the flop. Due to BB past aggression I did not put him on the straight. Also wanted to punish SB if she was drawing or had 2 Pair, thats why I 3 bet turn.

As CRD stated, I had bloated pot so I called river ready to muck.

SB showed Axs for flush, BB showed K9o.

My sets have been getting absolutely owned lately.
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09-24-2023 , 12:56 PM
" Due to BB past aggression I did not put him on the straight. Also wanted to punish SB if she was drawing or had 2 Pair, thats why I 3 bet turn."

i think AT, KT, QT, T9, T8, T7, and Txs, are all very likely to play exactly as they have up through the flop and initial turn checks. these are many combos that youre behind. 90 combos of straights in fact just in that list. thats a lot, and the presence of these straights with just a T in hand dominate the betting in this spot.
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09-25-2023 , 12:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
" Due to BB past aggression I did not put him on the straight. Also wanted to punish SB if she was drawing or had 2 Pair, thats why I 3 bet turn."

i think AT, KT, QT, T9, T8, T7, and Txs, are all very likely to play exactly as they have up through the flop and initial turn checks. these are many combos that youre behind. 90 combos of straights in fact just in that list. thats a lot, and the presence of these straights with just a T in hand dominate the betting in this spot.
My thinking was flawed then. All I was thinking about was all the 2 pair combos and flush draws and my FH redraw(that could have made a bigger FH for villian ofc)

My aggression needs tuning, I think I am spewy in many spots.
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09-27-2023 , 01:30 PM
in order to tune your aggression heres some mumbo jumbo to think on:

to figure out how often everyone folds, you multiply your opponents folding frequencies(the probabilities of 1, 2 or 3 callers is much more complicated).

these frequencies are not suggestive of actual values in this example hand, but to illustrate the math:

opponent 1 fold frequency = 30%

opponent 2 fold frequency 30%

opponent 3 fold frequency = 30%

.3 * .3 * .3 = 0.027 = 2.7%

or, opp1 50%, opp2 50%, opp3 50%

.5 * .5 * .5 = 12.5%

basically unless theyre huge nits that fold very often, your 4 way flop bet range should rely near exclusively on hand combos that want to bloat the pot intending to win showdown often(as viewed from the moment of the flop bet. significant action after the bet obviously changes how your hand best earns profit).

so what are JJ's ev sources here?

non showdown winnings = i doubt u take it down before the river much at all = negligible imo. youre only getting protection value vs Ax. everything else u wish u could protect against is calling. if they fold they probably had no pair no draw anyway.

showdown winnings = a function of the probability that you have the winning hand, and the size of the pot at showdown. i think the flop JJ doesnt win often unimproved on the river except in very small pots that get checked around on the turn and river. thus voluntarily bloating the pot on flop and turn is essentially building a pot for someone else, unless you hit a straight or running full house.

straight(which isnt nut, very well may chop with other jacks) is 4 outs max.

running full house is negligible outs.

call it 10% flop chance of making a hand that will be happy to bet the river and be called.

i don't like those odds, check flop pls.
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