Yeah, the more I stove, the more I find comfort spots to play such combos.

"Fifteen Million Merits" has definitely messed me up for two weeks now since I first watched it. Holding off on "The Entire History of You" until the weekend.

More poker books by Ed Miller on the way, any thoughts on the other books he's written.

Which ones did you buy?

I bought

1. STOP! 10 Things Good Poker Players Don't Do ($8)
2. The Course: Serious Hold 'Em Strategy For Smart Players ($48)

I wanted to buy a couple of books that weren't nuts-and-bolts, and more reflection, and it seemed odd that Ed Miller (who I believe is from MIT), who wrote a terrific technical manual would have more to add about the topic. I'll deliver book reviews in a month or so.

On p. 266, there's a hand quiz where we have 99 on the button and the flop comes 973 and we face a bet, a raise and two coldcalls.

There is a footnote on the next page that MAYBE we could wait for the turn to raise if we are absolutely sure that re-raising the flop would result in everyone checking to us on the turn.

In this exact case, it seems like re-raising the flop is a no-brainer no matter what, but a raise is not going to protect our hand, and if the small blind bets the turn, everyone else will call and we can force everyone to put in two big bets, and then in the huge pot they're unlikely to fold the river.

Just calling this flop feels like FPS but I'm having trouble justifying that it's the wrong play.

Thoughts?

We jam for value the flop because we have the nutz not only for having the best hand but we have the nut draw to outdrawn someone on the river that out draw us on turn.
So we shouldnt care for protection imo.

If we had something like JJ,QQ,KK i could see see a wait on the turn but not here with top set, your edge is too high on the flop while it wont change much on the turn.

It just seems like there's way too much value on the flop to miss out on by calling. Everyone's invested in the flop but are more likely to fold the turn.

What is Black Mirror?

British TV show, kinda like the Twilight Zone.

Calling Black Mirror creepy is like calling Shaquille O'Neal tall. It's one of the most disturbing shows on TV. In the US it's available on Netflix.

I would not associate it with the Twilight Zone. TZ is more sci-fi/fantasy, but everything on Black Mirror could actually happen if people in general continue to be so technology-obsessed.

I'm assuming we raised preflop:

Remember all those times they saw you raise with 98s and the like? Well now is the time to cash in on that investment by jamming for value 100% of the time.

I'm going to try to look at it from a numbers point of view:

There's 10sb in the pot before the flop. When the action gets to us on the flop there are 17sb in it. If we reraise and nobody caps, the pot will have 25sb in it. If everyone check/calls the turn and river the pot will be 45sb.

If we call the flop, SB bets the turn, everyone calls, we raise and everyone calls, then everyone check/calls the river, the pot is 20sb after the flop, 40sb after the turn and 50sb after the river. So essentially we're risking 5sb of expectation on the flop in the HOPES of gaining it back on the turn and river. All it would take is SB not betting the turn when we call the flop to screw it all up. A bird in the hand.

OK from that point of view I can see jamming for value now.

The best-case scenario is we 3-bet then SB or BB cap the flop and bet the turn so we can raise the turn. But that's less likely to happen if we just call the flop.

I think a common reason people call here is because they hope that someone with T9 will turn a T and jam or someone with AK will turn an A or K and jam thinking there's no way anyone has a set and we've outplayed/outsmarted/tricked/hoodwinked them, but if we reraise the flop they'll slow down with their top pair or 2 pair because they're afraid someone has a set. My answer to that would be that they're less likely to improve to two pair than someone else is to improve to a straight or a flush on that board. It's really hard to fold top 2 pair or even top pair in a pot that big anyway.

If none of that made any sense feel free to ignore it.

Hey dal I think you're over thinking this one.

It's a five way pot and they're betting and raising into your presumed preflop raise vs lol 4 limpers. I'd 3 bet much worse hands than 99 there. I think the margin of (3 betting hand/calling hand) is somewhere around Q9s. I'm 3 betting anything better and calling with worse.

Agree 100%. Too much FPS going on. You flop top set on a board with draws multiway, you don't get cute, you play your hand like a monkey.

IIRC they suggest 3-betting the flop since its pointless to try to delay and protect in an already swollen pot. Also the position of the bettor and raiser on flop makes delay a bit awkward/less effective.

Calling the flop and popping the turn (assuming no club) can be a fine alternative. While there is tons of value to be had on the flop, there is potentially even more value on the turn. You should look at the precise circumstances, but jamming the flop is the standard play.

We jammin, and I hope you like jammin too.

If the pot was already heads up, then maybe, just sometimes, I'd wait for the turn to raise in a game with no cap heads up, hoping that my opponent goes nuts with something dumb. In any other case? I'm raising the flop 100% of the time because calling caps the potential win, which is huge imo.

For example: slightly different situation:

4/8 holdem at Foxwoods on a Tuesday afternoon. I sat down about 20 minutes ago and we've played exactly 1 orbit. I'm in the big blind.

limp, limp, confirmed lag raises, the whole table calls, but I 3 bet 99, limpers call, lag 4 bet caps, everyone calls.

flop: K94r

checks to lag, he bets, there's a raise to his left, the whole table calls, I 3 bet, limpers call, lag 4 bet caps, the whole table calls.

Jack of hearts puts up a possible royal draw.

checks to lag, he bets, there's a raise to his left, maybe a couple people fold this time, but a few call behind, I 3 bet, utg limper says **** it out loud and 4 bet caps. limpers call. lag now says "prob drawing dead lol" and folds getting like a million to Juan, everyone else calls.

river 2 sweet. utg limper that capped the turn throws up his hands in frustration and has the obvious AThh imo.

I bet, folds to the flop and turn raiser that has AK, KJ or the like, she calls. rest fold.

I show, lady mucks, I scoop.

/cool story bro

cliffs: 3 of a kind is a strong hand.