This hand took place in the infamous $6/$12 LHE game at the Oaks at about 4 o’clock on a Sunday morning. The table dynamics were very loose and aggressive. Two regulars, an Asian American woman and an African American man, were on my left, raising and reraising frequently. (I was in the 3 seat, she was in the 4 seat, and he was in the 6 seat.) Her frequent aggression and incessant trash-talking seemed to suggest she was a maniac, though she actually played a fairly tight preflop strategy. He was a true maniac—three-betting every time she raised preflop, though this rarely thinned the field, and getting into raising wars with her and other players postflop. Two other notable players were a pair of Asian men in the 10 and 1 seats. They were not native English speakers and not regulars in the game, but they seemed to be friends. They took frequent smoke breaks together and were clearly discussing strategy in their language when they stood up together. The guy in the 10 seat was hyperaggressive, reraising with hands as weak as 45o, especially when seat 6 raised pre. The guy in the 1 seat was playing very loose but not especially aggressively. Neither of these two Asian men seemed to be winning, despite their frequent strategy discussions.
In one hand, I folded 97 of diamonds preflop in late position because it was three bets cold to me (and eventually capped). I would have called two bets cold given the dynamics at the table. There were two diamonds on the flop, a third on the turn, and a fourth on the river. A loose player in the 2 seat scooped a massive pot with 83 of diamonds—a hand with which he called three bets cold. (His stack size went up and down at an alarming rate.) In another hand, I raised KQ of spades preflop and got into a raising war with seat 6 on a flop of Q62 rainbow. Seat 1 came along for the ride and ended up winning a massive pot with J6 of clubs when he made a backdoor flush. So these were the kinds of hands people were willing to play in this game, despite having to call multiple bets cold preflop.
I knew if I just stayed patient, I could win some big pots against this lineup. Sure enough, I got pocket Kings and was able to reraise the laggy Asian male in seat 10 preflop. He check-raised me on the flop (trying to outplay me, I suppose), then check-called both the turn and river and lost to my overpair without showing his hand.
In the very next hand, I got pocket Queens and again was able to reraise preflop (I think the initial raiser was seat 4 or seat 6, who gave up on the hand postflop). We went six ways to a flop of J73 (18 small bets). I bet the flop and got four calls (11 big bets after the drop). The turn was a Ten, which could have given someone a straight. But it checked to me, I bet again, and no one raised or check-raised me, so I didn’t think anyone had the straight. Again, I got four calls (16 big bets). The river was another 3, for a final board of J73T3 (no flush possible). Seat 10 checked, but now seat 1 bet, showing initiative for the first time in the hand.
Can I make an exploitative fold here? A poster in this forum recently argued that one way to beat this game for a large amount is to make exploitative river folds, claiming that when certain players bet, they always have it. And seat 1 has not been one of the hyperaggressive players up to this point; he’s been playing very loose but mostly passively. He’s certainly representing a 3 when he bets out here, and if he’s willing to play J6s, then he has all the suited 3’s in his range. Not only that, but there are three players left to act behind me, so even if this bettor doesn’t have me beat, one of them might.
Arguments for calling: The pot is huge; I’m getting 17 to 1. I only have to be right about 5.6% of the time to make a call correct here. (And as Sklansky taught us all, if I call and I’m wrong, I lose one bet; but if I fold and I’m wrong, it’s a catastrophe.) The 3 is a scare card, for sure; knowing that, seat 1 might be using it as an opportunity to bluff me with a missed draw or a small pair. Then again, he might have something like JT, which made two pair on the turn, but he was too scared to lead out or check-raise me then. Now that he’s been counterfeited, he might feel the need to do what he should have done on the turn, which is take the betting initiative (not fully understanding that he now loses to my overpairs). Or he could have a hand like Jx, and he’s not sure whether he’s ahead or behind, but since he’s going to call my river bet anyway, he’s decided to bet it himself and see what happens. (I hesitate to say he’s turning Jx into a bluff, because I don’t think he’s experienced or confident enough at hand reading to know that I most likely have Jx beaten here.) Maybe he simply doesn’t believe that I could have been dealt two big pocket pairs in a row and thinks that his Jx or Tx is the best hand. His play has been so loose and seemingly illogical that it’s very hard to assign him to a limited range. But whatever range I do assign him surely includes some bluffs, so I have to call here, don’t I?
