3/6 live play.
Hero on the button with JJ
EP limper, LP limper, I raise, BB and limpers call. Four to the flop. (8sb)
KT8
Checked around to me. I bet. Very coordinated board, but I have second pair, back door draws, position.
BB folds, EP, LP both call. Three to turn. (5+ bb)

Q

Checked to me. I don't like this card. I check.

J

EP bets out, LP calls. I call.
Heads up I call here pretty much every time, but this overcall seemed extremely optimistic. How often do I have to be right? 10% or 15% of the time?

You're getting 7 to 1. You have to be right more than 12.5% (1 out of 7+1). I think villains have over optimistic top pairs and single pairs often enough here to warrant a call. In 3/6 I think it's very likely that they are overly optimistic.

the turn check induces weak hands to bet. call the river.

I can’t imagine anyone betting or calling with one pair on this board

When's the last time you played small stakes? It definitely is happening. No one will raise without an A though.

Did you miss the monotone flop? Even at small stakes no one is calling one pair on the river when three of a suit flops and the board runs out KQJT. Almost no one anyway

You’re probably not going to be right more than 12.5% of the time but it can’t be too wrong to call.

Nope didn't miss it. People flop flushes so rarely + hero has a club. There's hardly been any action postflop and pot is big. It's worth a call for a set. I wouldn't advocate for a call if hero wasn't beating all the two pairs.

Meh. It's one bet. I probably wince and call, then wish I'd have bet the turn.

Reads on EP and LP would be very helpful.

Absent any reads, at live 3/6 I think you will be good here enough to overcall closing the action. I can see someone with one or two pair hoping everyone else was on a flush draw and betting the river.

At 8/16 I would fold unless I had a read that EP liked to steal on the river and LP made weak river calls.

"Reads on EP and LP would be very helpful."

I am working on improving my player reads, but I remember noticing the EP player had been in quite a few hands and won quite a few small pots with turn bets without having to showdown. LP player played some very weak Aces from all positions. Other than that, they were both pretty passive...little to no preflop raising, never saw a 3-bet..

One more comment on the hand:

OTT you say Neither did your opponents, so that's why you bet. One thing I recall from HPFAP - "On the turn, bet hands that have no (of very few) outs, check hands that have outs." On this board, you have few clean outs. Just try to win the pot here.

The Q OTT is a scare card and you have blockers to the straight. Even if called, you'll likely get to showdown when they check to you OTR. In addition, if one opponent were to x/r your turn bet, even though immediate pot odds are identical to the river in your example, this would be a much more reasonable fold since the range that checkraises the turn skews far more towards you being way behind.

Good post - thanks for sharing this info.

If I am behind already, does a turn bet get anyone ahead of me to fold? People at these tables(god bless them) at not throwing away any draws on this board, and most of the player pool is evening calling down with any Kx and most Qx hands as well. My thinking was to take the free card now, as I needed to catch a or an A on the river.

Thank you for this explanation. Understanding that a checkraise here narrows my opponents range(and perhaps if EP is the checkraiser gets it heads up) is very helpful.

People often disparage me for exclusively playing limit games, but I find limit to be more than complex enough to be entertaining.

i disagree with betting the turn. its even worse because you have to call a checkraise. having "few outs" doesnt apply here, you have plenty of outs vs. a flopped small flush or turned straight. a turn bet wouldnt be a value bet or a good bluff, so i dont see a reason to do it.

i think the hand is played fine if you call river.

True. I missed the fact that he had the flush draw.

On the river, what hands beat you? A flopped flush that was looking to check-raise the turn. Any Ace. Any 9. A set of Kings or Queens (both unlikely given the preflop action). What hands do you beat? A set of Tens or 8s. All two pairs. All top pairs, but how likely is it that a top pair would bet this river? All bluffs.

Let's say you have a 20% chance of beating the bettor. Fine, you have pot odds to call him. Now let's say you have a 20% chance of beating the first caller. That means you have only a 4% chance of beating both of them, and you definitely don't have the pot odds to make that call. Even if you increase your chance of beating each of them individually to 30%, you'd only beat both of them 9% of the time, and you're not getting >11 to 1 on this call.

Basically, you need the bettor to be bluffing (with a missed flush draw, say) and you need the first caller to have a bluff catcher (like two pair or AK).

I would guess that the bettor has an Ace most of the time and a flush or a bluff some of the time, while the first caller has an Ace or 9 most of the time and two pairs some of the time. So you need them both to be at the bottom of their ranges for your hand to be good here. That will happen sometimes but not often enough to justify a call.

That is how I read the situation as well. I made the overcall reluctantly, hoping I would run into two pair hand and a top pair hand, accepting I was likely to run into an A or 9 rivered straight by at least one of the villians more often than not.

Better players reads would have helped me here more than anything else.