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Old 05-03-2017, 02:22 PM   #1
gr26
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random hand

micro limit 6max
everybody ran away, HU alert, I'm on BB. I know it's the last hand (the villain doesnt play HU - he could easily decided to steal wider than usual and leave like a boss).
the villain (35/23, steal ~45%, conbet flop 91%, turn 75%, level 1 when being raised) raises, i call with Q5o.
Flop J-3-2r. Check-conbet-call (?). Turn 6. Check-conbet-call (? i wanted to raise but refused). River K. I donked (following intuition).
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Old 05-03-2017, 03:13 PM   #2
OnTheRail15
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Re: random hand

chk fold river.
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Old 05-03-2017, 03:38 PM   #3
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by gr26 View Post
micro limit 6max
everybody ran away, HU alert, I'm on BB. I know it's the last hand (the villain doesnt play HU - he could easily decided to steal wider than usual and leave like a boss).
the villain (35/23, steal ~45%, conbet flop 91%, turn 75%, level 1 when being raised) raises, i call with Q5o.
Flop J-3-2r. Check-conbet-call (?). Turn 6. Check-conbet-call (? i wanted to raise but refused). River K. I donked (following intuition).
To be honest, you're probably subconsciously perturbed that the other player intends to leave next hand. If you really think that, you should not post your big blind, and leave, because you're not going to recover the big blind more often than not. It's entirely irrational to post the big blind here. Even in the small blind, you should leave. And, imho, you played the hand badly. Perhaps the bluff worked, and perhaps it didn't. It hardly matters in the long run.
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Old 05-03-2017, 04:10 PM   #4
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Re: random hand

I fold pre, play the BTN if he lets me, then leave.
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Old 05-03-2017, 04:44 PM   #5
OnTheRail15
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Re: random hand

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I fold pre, play the BTN if he lets me, then leave.
Don't fold pre.
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Old 05-03-2017, 05:27 PM   #6
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Re: random hand

I'd c/r the turn
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Old 05-03-2017, 06:22 PM   #7
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Re: random hand

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Don't fold pre.
I wouldn't fold pre if my intention was to keep playing.
If I accidentally posted the BB because everyone left all at once and I didn't uncheck the auto-post box, I'd generally just let a monster like Q5o go, play one more hand in position if possible, then stand up.

Unless you're really good at HU, I don't see a problem with folding a bad hand HU OOP and then leaving.

I also feel like we don't have any reads on his HU tendencies and therefore it's difficult to know what kind of range is barreling turn and would barrel river, and whether we should call down w/ Q hi or try to push out ace high w/ a turn check-raise.

However, I do think the river donk-bet is a valid play as hero can credibly rep a king-high-calldown type hand that's now betting river for value.
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Old 05-04-2017, 08:32 AM   #8
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by OnTheRail15 View Post
chk fold river.
i tried to fold ace high and block bluffs. I cant call(?). The King seemed a great card. Bad?
It's micro micro. Opponents very straightforward.

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Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
I also feel like we don't have any reads on his HU tendencies and therefore it's difficult to know what kind of range is barreling turn and would barrel river, and whether we should call down w/ Q hi or try to push out ace high w/ a turn check-raise.
I'm sure he plays standard 6max game at HU: put pressure like a boss with initiative (2conbets - check back river with ace high) with the same trytosteal mark (maybe 50-60% due to specific situation) of playable familiar hands.
The guy not great he just tries to have pro numbers (he knows that pros openraise with 24% preflop so he does the same like a monkey)

Last edited by gr26; 05-04-2017 at 08:43 AM.
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Old 05-04-2017, 09:16 PM   #9
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Re: random hand

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i tried to fold ace high and block bluffs. I cant call(?). The King seemed a great card. Bad?
It's not a bad card to turn into a bluff, but I don't think that's the right way to look at this spot. What were you going to do if one of the other 12 ranks of cards fell? It looks like you had no plan, and that's the real problem with this spot. I think the meat of this situation is your turn play because of how it sets up the river.

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It's micro micro. Opponents very straightforward.
If this is the case, then you should be able to give your opponent a rough hand range to work from and go from there.
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Old 05-06-2017, 01:57 AM   #10
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Re: random hand

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What were you going to do if one of the other 12 ranks of cards fell? It looks like you had no plan, and that's the real problem with this spot.
The plan was to check-fold with Q high on the river. But when the king fell i suddenly realised that was a good card. Plus he could fold some Qx.
what's wrong with the turn? I was sure the guy would conbet it with at least 80% of his range. With gutshot it's a call for me.
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Old 05-06-2017, 12:23 PM   #11
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Re: random hand

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The plan was to check-fold with Q high on the river. But when the king fell i suddenly realised that was a good card. Plus he could fold some Qx.
what's wrong with the turn? I was sure the guy would conbet it with at least 80% of his range. With gutshot it's a call for me.
There could be a number of problems, but it kind of depends on what you are doing.

The part of this that I want to focus on is the fact that you really didn't have a plan on the turn. "I was going to do X, but on the river I realized I could do Y instead." You violated your plan. This reveals that you didn't think it through.

I think the problem extends back to the turn action.
* Why are you calling with Q-high? How often do you think Q-high is good here?
* How much value do you think you will get out of your gutshot? Do the implied odds actually favor the call because of it?
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Old 05-07-2017, 02:22 AM   #12
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
The part of this that I want to focus on is the fact that you really didn't have a plan on the turn. "I was going to do X, but on the river I realized I could do Y instead." You violated your plan. This reveals that you didn't think it through.
Of course i cant have full picture every hand, i'm not a robot (and dont have strict patterns yet). I played kinda GTOish style (you must fold part of you range bla-bla-bla) and make some intuitive moves from time to time

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
I think the problem extends back to the turn action.
* Why are you calling with Q-high? How often do you think Q-high is good here?
* How much value do you think you will get out of your gutshot? Do the implied odds actually favor the call because of it?
due to Equilab: 30% equity on the flop. About 22% on the turn (if he keeps betting his standard 80% of the range; and there was a big chance that he could do it with 100%). My intuition was telling me the same.
I intended to donk-call with a str8 and donk-fold pair of Qs and he intended to call me with any pair and A high (maybe even with KQo on J-3-2-6-4 they all non-believers) .

Last edited by gr26; 05-07-2017 at 02:27 AM.
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Old 05-07-2017, 03:26 AM   #13
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Re: random hand

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Of course i cant have full picture every hand, i'm not a robot (and dont have strict patterns yet). I played kinda GTOish style (you must fold part of you range bla-bla-bla) and make some intuitive moves from time to time
Now is a good time to try to work through that full picture. You don't gain intuition by not doing the work.

Quote:
due to Equilab: 30% equity on the flop. About 22% on the turn (if he keeps betting his standard 80% of the range; and there was a big chance that he could do it with 100%). My intuition was telling me the same.
Underlined: I'm... doubtful.
Bold: I'm... doubtful.

Quote:
I intended to donk-call with a str8 and donk-fold pair of Qs and he intended to call me with any pair and A high (maybe even with KQo on J-3-2-6-4 they all non-believers) .
* You intended to donk-call with a straight on a J3264 board against an opponent that has only bet/raised at every opportunity?
* You intended to donk-fold a pair but you felt you had equity to call the turn bet with Q-high?
* You expected him to call with A-high if you hit a pair, but you wanted to turn a K into a bluffing card for your Q-high?

This doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
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Old 05-09-2017, 03:03 AM   #14
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
Underlined: I'm... doubtful.
Bold: I'm... doubtful.
I'm not a math guy. I cant count the number of combinations of certain hands in 10-15 secs and calculate the equity against them. I just think a little after the session about certain hands to have some common ideas


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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
* You intended to donk-call with a straight on a J3264 board against an opponent that has only bet/raised at every opportunity?
i didnt say he bets/raises at every oppotunity. He's very agressive with initiative (2conbets with ace hi on almost all kind of boards; he could keep betting river with missed draw; also he insta raises flopped draws and 3d pair on safe flops etc)

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* You intended to donk-fold a pair but you felt you had equity to call the turn bet with Q-high?
Yes, because i have reevaluated my hand on the river.

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
* You expected him to call with A-high if you hit a pair, but you wanted to turn a K into a bluffing card for your Q-high?
This doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
I put it wrong: ace high on J-3-2-6-4 not on J-3-2-6-Q.
Heh the K is much scarier card for them than Q (people play more kings and they feel it subconsciously). I would never bet K5 on J-3-2-6-Q trying to kick out ace high. Maybe it's just illusion. He could call sometimes if Q on the river (for example with AK or А4-А5 "ace that wanted to insta check behind+missed gutshot are facing a donk" tilt moment).
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i tried to fold ace high and block bluffs. I cant call(?). The King seemed a great card. Bad?
It's micro micro. Opponents very straightforward.
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Old 05-09-2017, 11:38 AM   #15
Aaron W.
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by gr26 View Post
i didnt say he bets/raises at every oppotunity. He's very agressive with initiative (2conbets with ace hi on almost all kind of boards; he could keep betting river with missed draw; also he insta raises flopped draws and 3d pair on safe flops etc)
But you have a straight that only loses to a specific two card straight that has low cards against a guy that has been the aggressor the whole hand. Donk-call is playing way too scared.

Quote:
Yes, because i have reevaluated my hand on the river.

I put it wrong: ace high on J-3-2-6-4 not on J-3-2-6-Q.
Heh the K is much scarier card for them than Q (people play more kings and they feel it subconsciously). I would never bet K5 on J-3-2-6-Q trying to kick out ace high. Maybe it's just illusion. He could call sometimes if Q on the river (for example with AK or А4-А5 "ace that wanted to insta check behind+missed gutshot are facing a donk" tilt moment).
I'm clearly not going to convince you that your line is all over the place, but it's all over the place. Your reads appear to be skewed in a way that looks to be optimistically favorable to you in that he plays in exactly the right ways to make your moves the right moves.

He "insta raises" bottom pair and draws on the flop. You're "sure" that he's going to c-bet 80% on the turn and there's a "big chance" he's doing that 100%. But on the river, he's predictable enough that you would fold second pair to a raise in a big pot.

You really need to go back to that turn decision and do a deep analysis. Write down your assumptions about how we would respond to various conditions*, then look at the hand range and plot out what percent of the time you end up where. Look at the equity calculations and see if it actually makes sense. (* Also check for consistency of internal logic.)

My suspicion is that even in the most optimistic assumptions (like what you've stated above), you're going to be *barely* +EV. And if you're *barely* +EV under optimistic assumptions, then realistically you're making a -EV play check-calling the turn.

Edit:

Quote:
I'm not a math guy. I cant count the number of combinations of certain hands in 10-15 secs and calculate the equity against them. I just think a little after the session about certain hands to have some common ideas
You don't get better by not doing the work. Using the "not a math guy" excuse doesn't help you in the long run. Just thinking ahead enough to say "I can bluff on a king" (regardless of whether it's a strategically sound idea) is a step in the right direction. The way your posts read, you had one plan on the turn and another plan on the river. That's really not a good strategy.

Last edited by Aaron W.; 05-09-2017 at 11:44 AM.
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Old 05-13-2017, 02:04 AM   #16
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
you're going to be *barely* +EV
that's exactly what i hoped to be the case. Maybe i'm just a little tired to play predictable poker "check call,check call,check fold'. Agrorobots are absolutely comfortable to see this.

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you had one plan on the turn and another plan on the river. That's really not a good strategy.
that's why i asked and maybe next time it'll be my ready plan. Maybe not.
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Old 05-13-2017, 12:05 PM   #17
Aaron W.
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Re: random hand

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Originally Posted by gr26 View Post
that's exactly what i hoped to be the case.
Be careful of seeing what you want to see and not what's actually in front of you. I'll repeat myself:

Quote:
Originally Posted by me
And if you're *barely* +EV under optimistic assumptions, then realistically you're making a -EV play check-calling the turn.
-----

Quote:
Maybe i'm just a little tired to play predictable poker "check call,check call,check fold'. Agrorobots are absolutely comfortable to see this.
Their comfort is irrelevant. What is relevant is your expectation and the quality of your play. Also, there are still some underlying inconsistencies in your line.

You said earlier that you're playing GTO-ish, but if you're thinking about making adjustments specifically for "agrorobots" then you're not really doing that at all and probably shouldn't thinking that you're doing that.

Against very aggressive players, you usually don't win by trying to out-aggro them. You win by just showing down better hands on average.

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that's why i asked and maybe next time it'll be my ready plan. Maybe not.
You need to be wary of going down the path of self-deception.
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