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The "When overcards whiff" thread

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06-27-2024 , 01:39 PM

#76

checkraisdraw

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 5,497

The problem is that from our perspective, it definitely seems like there might be selection bias going on. The idea of someone playing 80% of hands and only raising aces is a rare breed. It happens, but it’s not very common. And for every player to be playing that way? Doesn’t seem like that is realistically how people are playing.

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06-27-2024 , 01:54 PM

#77

hardinthepaint

adept

Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 735

Yeah, I will admit that it's been a very, very long time since I've played a game smaller than 8/16, and maybe I'm not very well attuned to just how bad people play, which is really why I was emphasizing the principle of garbage in/garbage out. My point isn't necessarily that my ranges are the right ones and OP's were wrong, but rather that the results are very sensitive to our assumptions, so we should be careful to not extrapolate too much.

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06-27-2024 , 02:18 PM

#78

checkraisdraw

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 5,497

I took a break for a while from poker after feeling very unmotivated to play. I came back playing 8/16. I think their ranges are closer to the ones that you posted @hardinthepaint. However, I know that 4/8 is much more passive and a little looser so ymmv.

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06-27-2024 , 04:51 PM

#79

killians3

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2020 Posts: 321

Quote:

Originally Posted by hardinthepaint

Agreed. Memory bias to "wtf I lost to that" to a rec may imprint on other recs and we will think more play that way than actually do.

I play mostly during the days on Sundays and once during a good HH promo during the week. When I stay later the player comp changes and while still loose not as crazy wtf as some of the daytime recs/bored retirees.

Driving the extra 15 mins to the local 'big games' casino and playing some 8/16 would probably help my perspective.

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07-03-2024 , 11:05 PM

#80

ntnBO

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,725

Quote:

Originally Posted by hardinthepaint

Well, for one, I think you have to assume that most limpers have a raising range. So you need to decapitate their limping range. I think you're probably falling victim to selection bias with respect to just how loose your average limper plays. Just because you regularly see some trash hands like 86o does not mean you should assume that all or most limpers are playing 86o, at least not first in. To that point, there's a pretty big difference between many players' open limping range and overlimping range, and a big difference between being the second limper and being the nth limper.

At WinStar, the players that play 75%+ of their hands either never raise pre or only raise AA, maybe KK, and rarely QQ. It’s an interesting dynamic.