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The "When overcards whiff" thread The "When overcards whiff" thread

01-15-2018 , 11:43 AM
DalTXColtsFan, work through this hand in its other variations. Rainbow board with 0 or 1 of your suit. 2 flush board with 0 or 1 of your suit. Also, how does this change if you have a top card of an A?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-15-2018 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
DalTXColtsFan, work through this hand in its other variations. Rainbow board with 0 or 1 of your suit. 2 flush board with 0 or 1 of your suit. Also, how does this change if you have a top card of an A?
Aren't these all straightforward questions?

The only change if your top card is an A is you don't have to worry about an overcard to top pair, but first of all if someone even HAS an A that's only 3 cards you have to worry about and they don't always. I'm not sure I'd even factor that into the calculations. Well, you do add a backdoor wheel draw in this particular hand as well but that's worth 1 out tops.

Rainbow board with 0 of my suit: I give the Ks 3 clean outs and the Ts about 2.5 since overcards could outdraw them.
Rainbow board with 1 of my suit: The same 5.5 outs plus 1 for the backdoor flush draw.

Honestly, I wouldn't treat a twoflush board any differently than I'd treat a rainbow board. The probability of someone making a flush by the river is MUCH higher when the board is monotone than when it's 2 tone.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-15-2018 , 11:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Honestly, I wouldn't treat a twoflush board any differently than I'd treat a rainbow board.
I might have been smoking something when I typed this. Please give me a chance to re-evaluate before responding.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-16-2018 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samdash
Raising from the blinds is great in a low limit game. The idea that the rake punishes you for this is almost always entirely false. People get so mad when they have to play for more than $4. Nothing they can do will punish you as long as you aren't raising stupid hands. The person before gave a good baseline raising range. Also raising QJs and JTs from the BB vs 4+ players can't be that bad and might be a good idea to raise about 25- 50% of the time. If half the table will raise some of their AK/AQ hands then you can get away with juicing it from the BB with hands as low as KQo, A9s, KTs, T9s.

EDIT:
The general strategy of building big pots with good hands then playing ABC face up after the flop tends to destroy certain low limit textures. The variance will be wild, but it will turn most of the players into pay stations.
Are you confusing playing an unraised hand 3 handed with raising in same spot? Why would anyone think that the rake would hurt when you're raising?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-16-2018 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Let me ask another related question:

Suppose you're at the type of table where 4 to 6 people are seeing every flop and you have a read on a specific villain that if he raises pre and checks the flop he has two big cards and whiffed but if he bets he has an overpair, top pair or a very strong draw.

How could one exploit that villain's predictable tendency?

And to what extent are our efforts to exploit said villain hindered by the presence of the other 1, 2, or 3 villains in the hand?

Bet the flops he checks, especially in late position. Obviously our efforts are greatly effected by the other 1-3 people in hand, but if they have no clue where villian is, and we do its right thing to do. If you fire on turn your story makes sense and you might take down pot right there, but it always depends on people in hand and board texture. Also, ALWAYS calling when you whiff gives away waaay too much info to anyone paying attention, you have to bet that flop some of time.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
DalTXColtsFan, work through this hand in its other variations. Rainbow board with 0 or 1 of your suit. 2 flush board with 0 or 1 of your suit. Also, how does this change if you have a top card of an A?
OK, coming back to this with a fresh mind:

SSHE says to count overcards as 2.5 outs when there's a flush draw (9 outs) that might be out there. If your top overcard is a Q, there are 6 cards (3 Ks and 3 As) that could come that you don't want to see (assuming there's both a K AND an A in one of the villains' hands, which is not always the case). If your top overcard is a T, there are 12 cards that could be out there.

Without overcomplicating the math, I think it's a small mathematical mistake at worst to say that 3 K outs are "just as clean" as 3 A outs, and to say that the 3 Ts are worth 2.5 outs when 3 Ks would be worth 3.

Rainbow board with 0 of my suit: I give the Ks 3 clean outs and the Ts about 2.5 since overcards could outdraw them.
Rainbow board with 1 of my suit: The same 5.5 outs plus 1 for the backdoor flush draw.
2-tone board with 0 of my suit: I give the Ks 2.5 outs and the Ts about 2.
2-tone board with 1 of my suit: The same 4.5 outs plus 1 for the backdoor flush draw.
2-tone board with 2 of my suit: I be jammin and I hope you like jammin too.

This look a little better?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:32 AM
Yes. Just wanted you to think through the variations.

Once you put a 2 and 3 on the board, the K looks a little better for not making my pair and bringing someone else a straight. Depends on how many of your opponents fold wheel cards. If your villains never play 6 and lower, then maybe hitting the ignorant end of a 1 card straight isn't as bad. How do your opponents feel about 32s, 43s, 54s, 54o, etc?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-23-2018 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShipIt2WinIt
I like the thread idea. I ck call 1 in first example. I'll post another flopped overs spot. Loose passive button,sb,bb.
Open AK mp. Button calls. Sb and bb defend.
267
Checked to you. Plan for the hand?
Easy bet, fire again on turn if spade or a or k comes, depends on board if whiff on river...
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
02-19-2024 , 04:31 PM
Prototypical SSHE table. EP limps. EP+1 folds. I'm in MP with KJ and I raise. HJ, BTN and SB coldcall, BB and EP call.

6 players, 6bb, flop is 264. SB and BB check, EP donks.

Getting 13-to-1 I'm not folding, but I'm having trouble talking myself into raising. On that board I just can't imagine folding out naked aces even for two bets - anyone with an ace and a kicker 8 or less is going to want to see one more card to try to make a straight, anyone with an ace and 9 or higher has two overcards and isn't going anywhere. I just can't see how raising improves my winning chances on this board.

I actually hate calling even though I think it's the right play because I still have 4 people to act after me. I think I'm going to end up paying 2 small bets to see a turn.

Am I right that calling is better than raising here, and folding is out of the question?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
02-19-2024 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Prototypical SSHE table. EP limps. EP+1 folds. I'm in MP with KJ and I raise. HJ, BTN and SB coldcall, BB and EP call.

6 players, 6bb, flop is 264. SB and BB check, EP donks.

Getting 13-to-1 I'm not folding, but I'm having trouble talking myself into raising. On that board I just can't imagine folding out naked aces even for two bets - anyone with an ace and a kicker 8 or less is going to want to see one more card to try to make a straight, anyone with an ace and 9 or higher has two overcards and isn't going anywhere. I just can't see how raising improves my winning chances on this board.

I actually hate calling even though I think it's the right play because I still have 4 people to act after me. I think I'm going to end up paying 2 small bets to see a turn.

Am I right that calling is better than raising here, and folding is out of the question?
it sucks but theres nothing else you can do but call.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
02-19-2024 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShipIt2WinIt
I like the thread idea. I ck call 1 in first example. I'll post another flopped overs spot. Loose passive button,sb,bb.
Open AK mp. Button calls. Sb and bb defend.
267
Checked to you. Plan for the hand?
bet. if you were in the blinds id check. if more than 1 person calls you check behind any turn that doesnt pair you up.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
03-31-2024 , 10:09 PM
4 limps, we are BTN with AJ and we raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

7 big bets, 7 players, Flop comes T72

It's checked around to us. Do we bet here? I say no. Getting 15 to 1 the villains are correct to call with anything, it's highly improbable we have the best hand, no better hand is going to fold, we really only have 4 top-pair outs, 2 of which are vulnerable to overcards and complete a straight draw as well as setting up straight redraws. Also, we were the preflop aggressor so someone may be waiting to check-raise.

Now let's say we don't bet the flop, turn is J, blinds check, UTG bets and one limper calls. We're getting 9-to-1 to call here with both blinds acting after us. Can we call here? I don't know. If we're ahead, there are a LOT of of river cards we DON'T want to see. If we're behind, 2 of our 5 outs put 4 spades on the board. And if someone has an unlikely straight or flush, none of our outs are good. This feels like a wait-for-a-better-situation situation.

Last edited by DalTXColtsFan; 03-31-2024 at 10:16 PM.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
03-31-2024 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
4 limps, we are BTN with AJ and we raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

7 big bets, 7 players, Flop comes T72

It's checked around to us. Do we bet here? I say no. Getting 15 to 1 the villains are correct to call with anything, it's highly improbable we have the best hand, no better hand is going to fold, we really only have 4 top-pair outs, 2 of which are vulnerable to overcards and complete a straight draw as well as setting up straight redraws. Also, we were the preflop aggressor so someone may be waiting to check-raise.

Now let's say we don't bet the flop, turn is J, blinds check, UTG bets and one limper calls. We're getting 9-to-1 to call here with both blinds acting after us. Can we call here? I don't know. If we're ahead, there are a LOT of of river cards we DON'T want to see. If we're behind, 2 of our 5 outs put 4 spades on the board. And if someone has an unlikely straight or flush, none of our outs are good. This feels like a wait-for-a-better-situation situation.
At 9:1 you can’t fold, particularly in position and particularly after you checked the flop. You should fold a spade/8/9 river but beyond that I think your hand is in reasonably good shape and is worth at least calling a river bet with.
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