Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
The "When overcards whiff" thread The "When overcards whiff" thread

01-15-2018 , 11:43 AM
DalTXColtsFan, work through this hand in its other variations. Rainbow board with 0 or 1 of your suit. 2 flush board with 0 or 1 of your suit. Also, how does this change if you have a top card of an A?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-15-2018 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
DalTXColtsFan, work through this hand in its other variations. Rainbow board with 0 or 1 of your suit. 2 flush board with 0 or 1 of your suit. Also, how does this change if you have a top card of an A?
Aren't these all straightforward questions?

The only change if your top card is an A is you don't have to worry about an overcard to top pair, but first of all if someone even HAS an A that's only 3 cards you have to worry about and they don't always. I'm not sure I'd even factor that into the calculations. Well, you do add a backdoor wheel draw in this particular hand as well but that's worth 1 out tops.

Rainbow board with 0 of my suit: I give the Ks 3 clean outs and the Ts about 2.5 since overcards could outdraw them.
Rainbow board with 1 of my suit: The same 5.5 outs plus 1 for the backdoor flush draw.

Honestly, I wouldn't treat a twoflush board any differently than I'd treat a rainbow board. The probability of someone making a flush by the river is MUCH higher when the board is monotone than when it's 2 tone.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-15-2018 , 11:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Honestly, I wouldn't treat a twoflush board any differently than I'd treat a rainbow board.
I might have been smoking something when I typed this. Please give me a chance to re-evaluate before responding.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-16-2018 , 06:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samdash
Raising from the blinds is great in a low limit game. The idea that the rake punishes you for this is almost always entirely false. People get so mad when they have to play for more than $4. Nothing they can do will punish you as long as you aren't raising stupid hands. The person before gave a good baseline raising range. Also raising QJs and JTs from the BB vs 4+ players can't be that bad and might be a good idea to raise about 25- 50% of the time. If half the table will raise some of their AK/AQ hands then you can get away with juicing it from the BB with hands as low as KQo, A9s, KTs, T9s.

EDIT:
The general strategy of building big pots with good hands then playing ABC face up after the flop tends to destroy certain low limit textures. The variance will be wild, but it will turn most of the players into pay stations.
Are you confusing playing an unraised hand 3 handed with raising in same spot? Why would anyone think that the rake would hurt when you're raising?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-16-2018 , 07:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Let me ask another related question:

Suppose you're at the type of table where 4 to 6 people are seeing every flop and you have a read on a specific villain that if he raises pre and checks the flop he has two big cards and whiffed but if he bets he has an overpair, top pair or a very strong draw.

How could one exploit that villain's predictable tendency?

And to what extent are our efforts to exploit said villain hindered by the presence of the other 1, 2, or 3 villains in the hand?

Bet the flops he checks, especially in late position. Obviously our efforts are greatly effected by the other 1-3 people in hand, but if they have no clue where villian is, and we do its right thing to do. If you fire on turn your story makes sense and you might take down pot right there, but it always depends on people in hand and board texture. Also, ALWAYS calling when you whiff gives away waaay too much info to anyone paying attention, you have to bet that flop some of time.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
DalTXColtsFan, work through this hand in its other variations. Rainbow board with 0 or 1 of your suit. 2 flush board with 0 or 1 of your suit. Also, how does this change if you have a top card of an A?
OK, coming back to this with a fresh mind:

SSHE says to count overcards as 2.5 outs when there's a flush draw (9 outs) that might be out there. If your top overcard is a Q, there are 6 cards (3 Ks and 3 As) that could come that you don't want to see (assuming there's both a K AND an A in one of the villains' hands, which is not always the case). If your top overcard is a T, there are 12 cards that could be out there.

Without overcomplicating the math, I think it's a small mathematical mistake at worst to say that 3 K outs are "just as clean" as 3 A outs, and to say that the 3 Ts are worth 2.5 outs when 3 Ks would be worth 3.

Rainbow board with 0 of my suit: I give the Ks 3 clean outs and the Ts about 2.5 since overcards could outdraw them.
Rainbow board with 1 of my suit: The same 5.5 outs plus 1 for the backdoor flush draw.
2-tone board with 0 of my suit: I give the Ks 2.5 outs and the Ts about 2.
2-tone board with 1 of my suit: The same 4.5 outs plus 1 for the backdoor flush draw.
2-tone board with 2 of my suit: I be jammin and I hope you like jammin too.

This look a little better?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:32 AM
Yes. Just wanted you to think through the variations.

Once you put a 2 and 3 on the board, the K looks a little better for not making my pair and bringing someone else a straight. Depends on how many of your opponents fold wheel cards. If your villains never play 6 and lower, then maybe hitting the ignorant end of a 1 card straight isn't as bad. How do your opponents feel about 32s, 43s, 54s, 54o, etc?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
01-23-2018 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShipIt2WinIt
I like the thread idea. I ck call 1 in first example. I'll post another flopped overs spot. Loose passive button,sb,bb.
Open AK mp. Button calls. Sb and bb defend.
267
Checked to you. Plan for the hand?
Easy bet, fire again on turn if spade or a or k comes, depends on board if whiff on river...
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
02-19-2024 , 04:31 PM
Prototypical SSHE table. EP limps. EP+1 folds. I'm in MP with KJ and I raise. HJ, BTN and SB coldcall, BB and EP call.

6 players, 6bb, flop is 264. SB and BB check, EP donks.

Getting 13-to-1 I'm not folding, but I'm having trouble talking myself into raising. On that board I just can't imagine folding out naked aces even for two bets - anyone with an ace and a kicker 8 or less is going to want to see one more card to try to make a straight, anyone with an ace and 9 or higher has two overcards and isn't going anywhere. I just can't see how raising improves my winning chances on this board.

I actually hate calling even though I think it's the right play because I still have 4 people to act after me. I think I'm going to end up paying 2 small bets to see a turn.

Am I right that calling is better than raising here, and folding is out of the question?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
02-19-2024 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Prototypical SSHE table. EP limps. EP+1 folds. I'm in MP with KJ and I raise. HJ, BTN and SB coldcall, BB and EP call.

6 players, 6bb, flop is 264. SB and BB check, EP donks.

Getting 13-to-1 I'm not folding, but I'm having trouble talking myself into raising. On that board I just can't imagine folding out naked aces even for two bets - anyone with an ace and a kicker 8 or less is going to want to see one more card to try to make a straight, anyone with an ace and 9 or higher has two overcards and isn't going anywhere. I just can't see how raising improves my winning chances on this board.

I actually hate calling even though I think it's the right play because I still have 4 people to act after me. I think I'm going to end up paying 2 small bets to see a turn.

Am I right that calling is better than raising here, and folding is out of the question?
it sucks but theres nothing else you can do but call.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
02-19-2024 , 06:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShipIt2WinIt
I like the thread idea. I ck call 1 in first example. I'll post another flopped overs spot. Loose passive button,sb,bb.
Open AK mp. Button calls. Sb and bb defend.
267
Checked to you. Plan for the hand?
bet. if you were in the blinds id check. if more than 1 person calls you check behind any turn that doesnt pair you up.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
03-31-2024 , 10:09 PM
4 limps, we are BTN with AJ and we raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

7 big bets, 7 players, Flop comes T72

It's checked around to us. Do we bet here? I say no. Getting 15 to 1 the villains are correct to call with anything, it's highly improbable we have the best hand, no better hand is going to fold, we really only have 4 top-pair outs, 2 of which are vulnerable to overcards and complete a straight draw as well as setting up straight redraws. Also, we were the preflop aggressor so someone may be waiting to check-raise.

Now let's say we don't bet the flop, turn is J, blinds check, UTG bets and one limper calls. We're getting 9-to-1 to call here with both blinds acting after us. Can we call here? I don't know. If we're ahead, there are a LOT of of river cards we DON'T want to see. If we're behind, 2 of our 5 outs put 4 spades on the board. And if someone has an unlikely straight or flush, none of our outs are good. This feels like a wait-for-a-better-situation situation.

Last edited by DalTXColtsFan; 03-31-2024 at 10:16 PM.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
03-31-2024 , 11:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
4 limps, we are BTN with AJ and we raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

7 big bets, 7 players, Flop comes T72

It's checked around to us. Do we bet here? I say no. Getting 15 to 1 the villains are correct to call with anything, it's highly improbable we have the best hand, no better hand is going to fold, we really only have 4 top-pair outs, 2 of which are vulnerable to overcards and complete a straight draw as well as setting up straight redraws. Also, we were the preflop aggressor so someone may be waiting to check-raise.

Now let's say we don't bet the flop, turn is J, blinds check, UTG bets and one limper calls. We're getting 9-to-1 to call here with both blinds acting after us. Can we call here? I don't know. If we're ahead, there are a LOT of of river cards we DON'T want to see. If we're behind, 2 of our 5 outs put 4 spades on the board. And if someone has an unlikely straight or flush, none of our outs are good. This feels like a wait-for-a-better-situation situation.
At 9:1 you can’t fold, particularly in position and particularly after you checked the flop. You should fold a spade/8/9 river but beyond that I think your hand is in reasonably good shape and is worth at least calling a river bet with.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 09:44 AM
This is probably pretty trivial, I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

I'm on the button with AK after 3 limpers and I raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

12sb, 6 players, flop 678

It's checked around to me. This is a slam-dunk check, yes? I have to confess that before this post I had never actually stoved this situation, but AKo actually has 6% equity against 5 ranges of any pair, any suited, any 2 broadways and any ace. And that's without adding the offsuit connectors and one-gappers SSHE players are so prone to play.

The only reason I'd even CONSIDER betting is to avoid giving a free card to a flush draw or oesd or even a gutshot or pocket pair, but it's not going to be a mistake for most of those hands to call anyway. I also get paranoid sometimes about turning my hand face up, but I need to get over that.

Even if the turn is a complete blank like the 2 our equity actually DROPS to 5%, and we have zero chance of winning the pot, so even if by some miracle it's checked around to us again it's a slam-dunk check-behind.

Interestingly (to me at least), if the river is the K we actually have 40% equity. If it's checked around to us on that river, I would have to consider betting because someone with two pair surely would have bet before the river. I'd curse and call one raise but fold to two.

One more tidbit - TT has 21% equity on that flop and AA has 23%. I think I would bet any overpair on the flop if checked to and call one raise, then re-evaluate on the turn in position.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 10:05 AM
Yes, you should check and probably only put in more bets if an ace or king comes. Yes, a lot of players will assume you have a weak hand, but that's just the way it is. You should probably also check here with some very strong hands, but in a lot of soft fields you can get away with just playing this straightforwardly.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 10:48 AM
Thanks hardinthepaint.

One more tidbit: Change the board to Q83 and our equity 6 ways is 11%. Against 2 people, our equity is 31%. Accounting for the probabilities of getting all the villains to fold and/or see a free river that really illustrates why it's correct to bet against 2 but not against 5.

On the 678 board against 2 people our equity is 23%. I have to be honest, at game speed it would be really hard for me to not bet that flop if checked to but I would not argue against someone who told me it's correct to check behind.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
This is probably pretty trivial, I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

I'm on the button with AK after 3 limpers and I raise. Both blinds and all limpers call.

12sb, 6 players, flop 678

It's checked around to me. This is a slam-dunk check, yes? I have to confess that before this post I had never actually stoved this situation, but AKo actually has 6% equity against 5 ranges of any pair, any suited, any 2 broadways and any ace. And that's without adding the offsuit connectors and one-gappers SSHE players are so prone to play.

The only reason I'd even CONSIDER betting is to avoid giving a free card to a flush draw or oesd or even a gutshot or pocket pair, but it's not going to be a mistake for most of those hands to call anyway. I also get paranoid sometimes about turning my hand face up, but I need to get over that.

Even if the turn is a complete blank like the 2 our equity actually DROPS to 5%, and we have zero chance of winning the pot, so even if by some miracle it's checked around to us again it's a slam-dunk check-behind.

Interestingly (to me at least), if the river is the K we actually have 40% equity. If it's checked around to us on that river, I would have to consider betting because someone with two pair surely would have bet before the river. I'd curse and call one raise but fold to two.

One more tidbit - TT has 21% equity on that flop and AA has 23%. I think I would bet any overpair on the flop if checked to and call one raise, then re-evaluate on the turn in position.
Yes check behind. A flush draw is probably ahead of you on the flop so you’re not giving them a free card, they’re giving you a free card.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 02:22 PM
You have to be mindful of the garbage in/garbage out nature of any PokerStove stuff you are doing. I don't really agree that it's reasonable to put 5 opponents on a range of "any pair, any suited, any 2 broadways and any ace."
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 08:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
Thanks hardinthepaint.

One more tidbit: Change the board to Q83 and our equity 6 ways is 11%. Against 2 people, our equity is 31%. Accounting for the probabilities of getting all the villains to fold and/or see a free river that really illustrates why it's correct to bet against 2 but not against 5.

On the 678 board against 2 people our equity is 23%. I have to be honest, at game speed it would be really hard for me to not bet that flop if checked to but I would not argue against someone who told me it's correct to check behind.
what range are you stoving for the limpers
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
what range are you stoving for the limpers
Any pair, any 2 suited, any 2 broadways and any ace which is 45.7% of all hands. I usually throw in offsuit connectors and onegappers in there but just forgot this time - that would bring it up to 56.6% of all hands. If you and/or hardinthepaint have better suggestions for a range I'm open to considering it.

In the games I play, their limping ranges are probably even wider than that to be frank. I saw a 7-way capped pot get chopped by two villains who both had 86o. I've seen multiple family pots within a 2 or 3 hour timeframe. If 5 to 7 people are seeing every flop does that mean on average the villains are playing 55-77% of their hands? And when you consider that I and usually one other player are only playing about 15-20% of ours doesn't that mean that the looser villains are actually playing MORE than 55-77% of their hands?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-25-2024 , 11:30 PM
Well, for one, I think you have to assume that most limpers have a raising range. So you need to decapitate their limping range. I think you're probably falling victim to selection bias with respect to just how loose your average limper plays. Just because you regularly see some trash hands like 86o does not mean you should assume that all or most limpers are playing 86o, at least not first in. To that point, there's a pretty big difference between many players' open limping range and overlimping range, and a big difference between being the second limper and being the nth limper.

I probably play in very different games than you, but I would generally assume an open limper is playing something like: 77-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K8s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-J8s, T9s-T7s, 98s-97s, 87s-86s, 76s-75s, 65s, 54s, AT-A5, KQ-K9, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, and T9. That's about 25% of hands. Some tight passive players will be snugger than this, some loose passives will be looser, and some tricky players will sometimes l/rr with some strong hands along with some strong multiway draw type hands.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-26-2024 , 12:52 AM
Yep. And you can throw in partial combos of weird offsuit hands if you want to keep your bases covered. Probably more important is to remove the top range hands that would have been raised rather than limped.

I would probably insert looser ranges in the games I play or against particularly loose players but I’m not going to assume everyone is limping with 75 offsuit or 92s
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-26-2024 , 01:05 AM
Taking out the obvious hands that most people are going to raise (ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, QJs+, 88+) will have an outsized effect on your equity calculations. It’s a hell of a lot more significant than figuring out exactly how low the limpers in a 4/8 game will go.

I agree with hardinthepaint’s default range for open limpers with two caveats: (1) many players in the games I play don’t have an open limping range and will raise many of these hands first in; (2) subsequent limping ranges are generally going to be a lot wider. For example, I wouldn’t open limp 95s (or any hand), but if I had it on the button after 4 players limped in, I would happily overlimp.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-27-2024 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by asmitty
Taking out the obvious hands that most people are going to raise (ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, QJs+, 88+) will have an outsized effect on your equity calculations. It’s a hell of a lot more significant than figuring out exactly how low the limpers in a 4/8 game will go.

I agree with hardinthepaint’s default range for open limpers with two caveats: (1) many players in the games I play don’t have an open limping range and will raise many of these hands first in; (2) subsequent limping ranges are generally going to be a lot wider. For example, I wouldn’t open limp 95s (or any hand), but if I had it on the button after 4 players limped in, I would happily overlimp.
I think you are giving 4/8 players too much credit on what they raise, at least in my local game. Seriously 75% of my 4-8 games players are only raising QQ-AA, maybe AKs, sometimes JJ or AK. I swear some of them are only AA-KK and some limp with everything and may LRR with big pairs. As far as trash hands there is almost always 1-2 monkeys playing 80% and only raising with AA. The rest are pretty much any gappers(god they love their straights), pretty much any suited, any Ax or Kx. I am amazed at what they call with and somewhat frustrated I am not good enough yet to crush the game.

Figuring out ranges for stove/equilab was a challenge for sure.
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote
06-27-2024 , 12:09 PM
I mean you know your games best. How many average players per flop?
The "When overcards whiff" thread Quote

      
m