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The "one overcard" thread The "one overcard" thread

02-09-2024 , 08:03 PM
One spot where I often find myself questioning how to continue is when the flop puts one overcard to my pocket pair on the board.

Starting with the specific case where I have KK and an A flops, I feel like such a pessimist assuming I must be behind when I face any action at all, but it's often true, especially when there are at least 2 other people seeing the flop with me. If my math is right, the probably that nobody got dealt an ace at a 9-handed table is 23.6% (surprisingly high IMHO). In the games I play, if someone has an ace they're seeing the flop with it. And usually in the games I play, if there's an ace on the flop they're afraid to represent that they have it if they don't. So if I have KK, an ace flops and someone shows aggression, I'm probably drawing to 2 outs plus whatever draws (like a backdoor flush) might be on the board.

With any other pocket pair where the only overcard to your PP is the A, you not only have the above considerations, you have the vulnerability of your hand to additional overcards coming on the turn and river.

I'll pause there before I move on to other single-overcard examples. When there's an ace on the board in a multiway pot and somebody bets the flop, what kinds of reads do you need before you even consider the possibility that you aren't behind?
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02-09-2024 , 11:46 PM
if you just c/f when you have KK and the flop comes Axx you arent giving up much. ive always found it much easier to fold earlier in the hand than later.
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02-10-2024 , 10:59 AM
You should throw out some specific examples. Board texture is gong to be important in your decision. If there are potential draws you'll need to be more stubborn. If it's a blind steal situation you'll need to understand how high up you are in your range. You will need to be more stubborn with your bigger pairs to avoid being exploited. Be careful of players who will float. Also, realize that players like to make lite peels so you aren't necessarily beat just because you get called by a couple players.

Throw out some scenarios with player reads.
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02-10-2024 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig
Throw out some scenarios with player reads.
I get why you're asking the question, but I'm not sure that was my point. The point is more like, under what circumstances are we seeing a flop at least 3 ways with KK, there's an A on the flop, we're facing aggression (whether it be a donk or a raise of our c-bet), and we believe we might not actually be behind? I would need a read that the player showing aggression is a total maniac to not believe I'm behind, and even then, I'd be nervous about proceeding unless the board texture was such that I had pot odds to continue. Does that make more sense?
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02-16-2024 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NittyOldMan1
if you just c/f when you have KK and the flop comes Axx you arent giving up much. ive always found it much easier to fold earlier in the hand than later.

So you raise KK... flop of Axx checks around to someone on button who bets....and you fold? Seems awful NITTY old man. lol.
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03-26-2024 , 09:01 PM
When an overcard comes, we usually just want to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. And against passive players or real action, we can just fold ASAP without a bdfd.

But if there's not any action, we can sometimes value bet the river.
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03-27-2024 , 11:57 AM
I will assume I still have the best hand on the flop until the action suggests otherwise.
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04-20-2024 , 11:25 AM
2 limpers, CO raises, BTN folds, SB calls, we are BB with TT and 3-bet. Both limpers cold-call, CO caps, SB coldcalls, we and the limpers call.

5 players, 20sb, Flop K74

Checks around to the CO who bets. SB folds. Getting 21-to-1 with implied odds I can get behind a call here so we call. 1 limper calls.

3 players, 11.5bb, turn Q

Checks around to the CO who bets. Norman Chad would be excited about picking up a backdoor straight draw on the turn but I can't justify chasing a two-outer getting 12.5 to 1. Trivial fold.

What if CO and BB were reversed in this hand, we raise from the CO, BB 3! us? We just call and don't 4-bet TT here unless we have a solid read that BB will 4! a LOT of hands TT is ahead of do we? So when we get the same flop, BB bets and we're only getting 16 to 1 instead of 21 to 1, is that a trivial flop fold? It seems like we're behind a LOT there, and even if we ARE ahead there are a LOT of cards we don't want to see on the turn and river.
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04-20-2024 , 12:06 PM
One more: 2 limpers, we're in the CO with 88 (what is it with me and getting dealt black pocket pairs?!?!?!?) and we raise. BTN coldcalls, SB folds, BB and limpers call.

4 players, 8sb, flop T42

BB checks, first limper bets, second limper calls.

We're getting 10 to 1. Even if the better has a T we have two outs to a set and BDFD and probably have crazy implied odds. So folding is out of the question, and raising feels better than folding for the ability to protect our hand against 4x and 2x and the possibility of a free turn card, not to mention getting naked overcards to our 8s to fold. Without the BDFD I would consider a fold here. If we were getting 8 to 1 or 6 to 1 I would probably fold here.

Thoughts?
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04-20-2024 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalTXColtsFan
2 limpers, CO raises, BTN folds, SB calls, we are BB with TT and 3-bet. Both limpers cold-call, CO caps, SB coldcalls, we and the limpers call.

5 players, 20sb, Flop K74

Checks around to the CO who bets. SB folds. Getting 21-to-1 with implied odds I can get behind a call here so we call. 1 limper calls.

3 players, 11.5bb, turn Q

Checks around to the CO who bets. Norman Chad would be excited about picking up a backdoor straight draw on the turn but I can't justify chasing a two-outer getting 12.5 to 1. Trivial fold.

What if CO and BB were reversed in this hand, we raise from the CO, BB 3! us? We just call and don't 4-bet TT here unless we have a solid read that BB will 4! a LOT of hands TT is ahead of do we? So when we get the same flop, BB bets and we're only getting 16 to 1 instead of 21 to 1, is that a trivial flop fold? It seems like we're behind a LOT there, and even if we ARE ahead there are a LOT of cards we don't want to see on the turn and river.
In the actual hand, I agree it’s a trivial flop call and trivial turn fold.

The alternate universe hand is different in two critical ways: (1) BB 3bet a late position raise and you did not 4bet; and (2) you’re in position. I’m obviously not loving this situation but it’s definitely not a flop fold. I think it’s closer to a raise than a fold, but I think both are far inferior to calling.
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05-21-2024 , 04:26 PM
I raise KK UTG, get 2 coldcallers and both blinds call.

The flop comes AJ6r. It gets checked around to me. I check behind, afraid an ace might checkraise me, and trying to get a cheap showdown.

The turn is a 3 of a 4th suit. Checked around to me again and I check behind again because I'm afraid someone has an ace. Kind of kicking myself for not betting there - if someone had an ace we'd know it by now.

River is a Q. SB bets and BB calls. I'm getting 7 to 1 with 2 players to act behind me. What's my play? I have to admit I consider a raise here because UTG could easily just have a queen and not believe anyone has an ace, and BB could be calling with anything.
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05-21-2024 , 04:54 PM
Bet the turn. On the river call.
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05-22-2024 , 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by checkraisdraw
Bet the turn. On the river call.
Agree. You should generally avoid folding or making weird plays in big pots when you’ve underrepresented your hand.
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06-01-2024 , 11:08 PM
For whatever little it may be worth, I think I misremembered the hand in post #11. My hand history reads like I'm on the button, not UTG.

First things first, if the flop gets checked all the way around and both blinds check to me on the turn, that's a pretty good sign IMHO that nobody has an ace, certainly enough of a sign to warrant a turn bet.

But now I'm second-guessing myself for not betting the flop after the blinds checked, even knowing there were 2 more villains to act after me. I'm on the fence. Checking announces to the universe that I don't have an ace, and nobody who DOES is going to fold it. But betting opens the door to getting raised by one of the next 2 villains which I don't want. In these games I'm just not sure the statement "I'm usually behind here" is wrong.

Thoughts to help me get off the fence?
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