I am a serial raiser in late position when there are multiple limps to me - I will raise almost any hand that either has a clear equity advantage or would benefit from seeing a 4-card flop. This includes suited connectors, suited aces, any 2 broadways and pocket pairs.

I've posted before that in the games I play, a raise is exactly QQ+/AK a significant if not large percentage of the time. In my last session even THOSE hands were getting open-limped and overlimped. Several times I raised in late position and got shown AA, KK, QQ or AK at showdown.

I think the answer I'm looking for is, "Don't let one statistical anomaly change your strategy - just play against their whole range" but let me go ahead and post a hand:

I have KJo in the CO after 4 limpers. The only situation under which I'd even CONSIDER a fold is if one of the 4 limpers had a VERY tight limping range that I'm behind the majority of. But if they're all limping 50%+ of their hands I'm way ahead of their whole range so I'm raising (I'm NEVER calling).

Flop comes K93r. Checks around to me. Am I ever NOT betting there? Even if I've seen KQ, AK, KK and AA get limped, that's a tiny fraction of everyone's ranges.

Let's say for the sake of argument I get 3 callers and the turn is an 8 putting a flush draw on the board. Checks around to me. Same thing - am I ever NOT betting? KQ, AK, KK and AA are STILL a very small fraction of their ranges.

Now let's say 1 caller and the river is a 7 that doesn't complete the flush. He checks to me. I haven't counted the combos but by the river the pot's going to be big enough he'll call with any king, 9, 8, 7, 3 or pocket pair. Most of the players in my game either don't know how to checkraise or they're afraid of me checking behind so they bet out with a monster. I think this is a value bet.

You're making this sound like it is NL.

I bet all three streets ainec. If you never value bet and get called by a better hand, you are not value betting enough.

Yep, this is a value bet. Sometimes you lose, but for every time you get called by AA/KK/AK/KQ, there are many times where you get called by worse.

Just curious....if you got check-raised on the turn or River are you folding?

A fair question.

Let's say all limpers and both blinds call my preflop raise and 3 villains call my flop bet. If my count is correct there are 9 big bets on the turn. So if I bet and get raised, there will be at least 12 big bets in the pot. Folding for one bet there would be a clear mistake because two pair is a significant part of the villains' raising range and we have more than enough outs against 2 pair to justify a call.

Now let's say the villain just calls the turn and checkraises the river. We're getting 14 to 1. Me, personally? I call here 100% of the time. I have enough holes in my game to work on that I'm not concerned about finding the rare spots to make a hero fold getting 14 to 1. I'm not sure it's a mistake either to be honest - no matter how long you've been playing with villains you can't be 93% sure they never checkraisebluff.

Just one wannabe grinder's opinion.

To those who think you CAN be 93% sure you're never getting bluffed there: A particular villain I've been playing against raised me on the river after I made a middle flush on a paired board. I called him. He showed me a stone-cold bluff and actually chastized me for calling - "You should have folded there.". I said, "Depending on people to fold at a 4/8 table? Let me know how THAT goes for you!" he said, "You've been folding the river all night!"

I silently thanked him for that valuable information!

I would not fold to a turn c/r because we have 2 pair outs and there are lots of turned draws a villain could semi bluff with. I would fold to a c/r on this particular river against a generic villain barring a specific read or some basis for calling. Yes it is a big pot and yes villains sometimes do spazzy things. But:

1. People generally do not c/r bluff the river, particularly not in a 4/8 game and particularly not in a pot of this size.

2. There is at least one hand that would credibly play this way (JT) and I think it's fair to assume that this villain has every combination of it in his range.

3. You will have lots of better hands to call a river C/R with. I don't know exactly where to draw the line (I think I would call with AA and fold with KQ, don't know about AK) but I think it has to be somewhere above KJ.

I think getting x/r on the river is one of the toughest spots in low stakes LHE because it happens so infrequently and it is so rarely a bluff. By default, I think a paired board with the low or middle card being paired = most likely bluff. An unpaired, no flush, straightening board is the least likely bluff.

At the same time, the wtf factor is always present so I don’t blame anyone for leaning towards call. But it is severely underbluffed.

Seems to me you are making my point. The only reason the guy took a shot at you was because your game was unbalanced! Infact, I've made the same observation a while back regarding the whole ...Thin value bet - Fold to raise concept that was being championed here. It was clear that if you just check raised the river against some of you, it would be profitable. Anyway, Now that he told you his read on you...and of course you fixed it....now...here's the thing...if he raises you again on the river in this situation....what percentage of the time is it a Bluff? I'd say close to zero. Like 99% sure he isn't bluffing here. Also, this is ONE time he bluffed you...could it be that this was the 1 time in a 100 that he'd try this? From what he said I'd say Yes it was. And isn't 1 time in a 100..1% So to say that you are say 97% sure is actually a CONSERVATIVE estimate!

We're getting 14 to 1. Me, personally? I call here 100% of the time.

So is 14 to 1 the threshold to stop thinking and just blindly call?

If you are calling a 100% of the time when you are getting 14 to 1, but losing 98% of the time...thats -EV lol...