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Old 06-28-2017, 02:21 AM   #1426
rodeo
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

I'd assign the LRR KK+ and AK. If they bet the AK9 flop, I'd raise the flop and call down from there. If they check the AK9 flop, I'd bet and call a x/r intending to call down.
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Old 06-28-2017, 02:47 AM   #1427
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

If you think it's KK+ and AK, you should not raise the flop. While it's 9:6 that you are in the lead, your opponent can
1) Re-raise the times s/he doesn't have AK
2) Draw-out
3) Sandbag the turn/river

So, you're risking two-bets to win one (at best), and you can be drawn out on. It would be a small error to raise. You need to be a little better than 2-to-1 to raise here, not slightly worse than 3-to-2.

Wait, did others call the flop? Ignore above if there's others in the middle. Double-checked, OP was postulating a plan, so not that far in the action yet.
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Old 06-28-2017, 03:18 AM   #1428
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight View Post
Not sure this really belongs here, but since we are talking about super narrow ranges, here's an interesting situation I faced on the river tonight:

Button straddles, 6 players call in front of me, I call with 64hh from the cut off.

Flop is 644, two spades. Everyone checks to me, I bet, and at least six of us see the turn.

T on turn, same action, but maybe we lose one player.

5s on river. Early position player donks and it folds to me. I have two players to act behind me: one of them looks interested and one of them is telegraphing a fold. If I knew they were both staying I would consider going for the overcalls here and maybe get the super parlay of one of them raising a flush. With one obvious fold though, I go ahead and raise it, the player to my left cold calls and the river bettor reraises...

I have a lot of history with this player. This is what I can say for sure: he would not three bet me on this river with an ace high flush, he never has a 4, and he never has TT. After tanking for a bit and coming to these conclusions, I realized a) that I couldn't cap and b) that he is showing me a straight flush here probably more than 50% of the time.

He did have the 32 of spades. *puke*
Fold preflop.
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Old 06-28-2017, 03:27 AM   #1429
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

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Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
Fold preflop.
64s might be playable here, though this and 54s are the bottom of my cold-call range. 6 players though in a straddle pot is good though. So, I call.
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Old 06-28-2017, 05:34 AM   #1430
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

There are 7 players committed before it's my turn and only one of them will have position on me. Our hand isn't very good but the risk/reward is pretty favorable and so is our position. 64s is definitely one of the worst hands I'd play in this spot but I think you have to gamble with the droolers here.

If you would limp along here if the button didn't straddle and the action was the same, then you can't justify folding here. Like... at all.

Last edited by TheDarkKnight; 06-28-2017 at 05:39 AM.
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Old 06-28-2017, 05:53 AM   #1431
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

You can pass if you're short on bankroll though, because it's high variance.
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Old 06-28-2017, 06:08 AM   #1432
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight View Post
If you would limp along here if the button didn't straddle and the action was the same, then you can't justify folding here. Like... at all.
It's not the same. Paying 2 bets instead of 1 cuts your postflop implied odds in half.

Plus, did you forget the reason people straddle? Because it gives them the option to raise again. They often take the option. And someone else often reraises because they expected the straddler to raise, or just because they want to build a pot. You could easily wind up paying 4 bets preflop.
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Old 06-28-2017, 12:52 PM   #1433
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rodeo View Post
I'd assign the LRR KK+ and AK. If they bet the AK9 flop, I'd raise the flop and call down from there. If they check the AK9 flop, I'd bet and call a x/r intending to call down.


This is the correct answer. I'm not going full retard on the flop. But not raising or betting when checked to on the flop is pretty bad.

Once they bet 3bet that flop. I'm starting to believe.
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Old 06-28-2017, 01:26 PM   #1434
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHip41 View Post
This is the correct answer. I'm not going full retard on the flop. But not raising or betting when checked to on the flop is pretty bad.

Once they bet 3bet that flop. I'm starting to believe.
Sometimes we disagree, but this is so brain dead correct that I'm not sure what the issue is here. I've seen "passive" dudes LRR simply because they're sick of you guys raising them. That's less likely massively multiway, but I'm not willing to say that someone who LRR and bets AK9 has 100% of AA/KK combos and not be able to find 6 combos of other stuff. Never mind the times that low stakes players LRR different stuff (like QQ) and fire out on AK9 simply because they're mad an Ace and King came.

I MIGHT elect to call flop and r/f turn, but almost certainly not since I don't like playing hands this strong to fold them against unknowns taking weird lines.
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Old 06-28-2017, 03:42 PM   #1435
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

I think snap folding the flop to a single bet is clearly lol-wrong. Not that anyone recommended that, but assigning really high % of KK+ to villain actually says you should. That's why I asked if people fold to a bet on this flop, because if you're sure enough this is AA you're kind of saying to do so. You'd also check back to their obvious slowplay/trap, being that sure.

By the same token, putting in 3 or 4 raises seems wrong. Their preflop line suggests some % of KK+ or just AA, the flop bet/raise adds more evidence. You could argue whether the right number of raises is 0, 1, 2, or 3. To me, 0 and 3 are both wrong vs a relative unknown, with 3 being more wrong than 0.
Quote:
I MIGHT elect to call flop and r/f turn, but almost certainly not since I don't like playing hands this strong to fold them against unknowns taking weird lines.
+1. Since EP LRR is so rare, I hate rewarding someone on tilt. We bloated the pot enough that a really % of not AA justifies showing down. Like others, I've seen enough nits go nuts because they're tired of getting raised. If their range is exactly AA + (small tilt %) T, T just doesn't have to be big.
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Old 06-28-2017, 04:04 PM   #1436
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight View Post
Not sure this really belongs here, but since we are talking about super narrow ranges, here's an interesting situation I faced on the river tonight:

Button straddles, 6 players call in front of me, I call with 64hh from the cut off.

Flop is 644, two spades. Everyone checks to me, I bet, and at least six of us see the turn.

T on turn, same action, but maybe we lose one player.

5s on river. Early position player donks and it folds to me. I have two players to act behind me: one of them looks interested and one of them is telegraphing a fold. If I knew they were both staying I would consider going for the overcalls here and maybe get the super parlay of one of them raising a flush. With one obvious fold though, I go ahead and raise it, the player to my left cold calls and the river bettor reraises...

I have a lot of history with this player. This is what I can say for sure: he would not three bet me on this river with an ace high flush, he never has a 4, and he never has TT. After tanking for a bit and coming to these conclusions, I realized a) that I couldn't cap and b) that he is showing me a straight flush here probably more than 50% of the time.

He did have the 32 of spades. *puke*
nh. Seriously. I know saving 1 BB isn't much in the scheme of things, but understanding when your monsters are no longer monsters is really a key part of post-flop play and I see lots of players put too many bets in against relatively obvious narrow ranges.

(And the pre-flop call is fine.)
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Old 06-28-2017, 04:50 PM   #1437
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
nh. Seriously. I know saving 1 BB isn't much in the scheme of things, but understanding when your monsters are no longer monsters is really a key part of post-flop play and I see lots of players put too many bets in against relatively obvious narrow ranges.

(And the pre-flop call is fine.)
I know there are more combos of 66+55 but I think 66 is crazy unlikely and I think he would fold 55 on the turn a lot, so... straight flush?! I actually chuckled in amused disgust when I realized I had to rule out 55 most of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
It's not the same. Paying 2 bets instead of 1 cuts your postflop implied odds in half.

Plus, did you forget the reason people straddle? Because it gives them the option to raise again. They often take the option. And someone else often reraises because they expected the straddler to raise, or just because they want to build a pot. You could easily wind up paying 4 bets preflop.
You're right. And actually, with the button straddle, it's up to 5 bets it could cost me preflop. But the player that straddled this particular hand wasn't in the "super action" category (in fact, he checks his option with A7ss here, with the button and 7 opponents in). If he was someone I thought would frequently click it back, then I would fold because there were multiple players that had called already that would definitely back raise to create a huge pot. I actually made a post earlier in this thread about the difficulty I was having adjusting my play from the blinds in these situations. FWIW, I don't think this preflop call is 100% defensible, but if it's incorrect, it really can't be that bad.
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Old 06-28-2017, 05:17 PM   #1438
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDarkKnight View Post
No mention of "old lady" anywhere except in the posts of people that are trying to make themselves sound less ridiculous.
This is true that I did not mention in the OP that villain was an "old lady". I did refer to villain as "she". Ironically, I did not jump in to correct anyone who assumed SHE was "old." I would have guessed she was a woman in her 50's. For those of you who think that is old....the reference to an old lady was right. For those of you who don;t see 50's as old....the reference was wrong. At most of the poker tables I play at in Las Vegas -- especially off the Strip-- 50's is probably only a bit above the median age of women at SSLHE games. And I don't feel confident in that estimate. It could be the median age range.
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Old 06-28-2017, 05:26 PM   #1439
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
I've heard the speech, "Well, I couldn't win with my good hands" many times. Some players are patient for a while, and then lose their patience and show you the least expected hands. There's all kinds of random in low limit games. So, we'll have to agree to disagree.

Also, OP said 30-45 minutes. And, we don't really know how poetic the OP is being. OP seems to add some romanticism in there, so we're not sure exactly how many hands were played.
True that I had some poetry in the O, but 30-45 minutes was pretty accurate.
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Old 06-28-2017, 05:38 PM   #1440
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
64s might be playable here, though this and 54s are the bottom of my cold-call range. 6 players though in a straddle pot is good though. So, I call.
+1
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Old 06-28-2017, 06:48 PM   #1441
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Yes, with an older lady, it's close and I think just call down. You're still a favorite vs range but it's close as to whether it's enough to raise it.
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Old 06-28-2017, 07:24 PM   #1442
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by leavesofliberty View Post
Yes, with an older lady, it's close and I think just call down. You're still a favorite vs range but it's close as to whether it's enough to raise it.
Not with other players in the pot whom you are undoubtedly crushing.
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Old 06-28-2017, 07:25 PM   #1443
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

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Not with other players in the pot whom you are undoubtedly crushing.
Yes but OP didn't say.
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Old 06-28-2017, 09:41 PM   #1444
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

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Originally Posted by SetofJacks View Post
Not with other players in the pot whom you are undoubtedly crushing.
This reasoning does not work unless your second place equity share is still more than your fair share of equity. There's no silver medals in poker.
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Old 06-28-2017, 11:31 PM   #1445
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

You need to raise the flop to charge draw and for value. Once you get three bet then you can shut down.
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Old 06-29-2017, 12:04 AM   #1446
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

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Originally Posted by lawdude View Post
This reasoning does not work unless your second place equity share is still more than your fair share of equity. There's no silver medals in poker.
Sorry I forgot her range was [AA]
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Old 06-29-2017, 11:49 AM   #1447
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

FWIW I posted this in the O8 forum, but I had hundreds of hands versus a guy in the game and his first preflop 3 bet ever was with T322. People do weird crap.
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:04 PM   #1448
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

As you start to reduce the random hands then it becomes a call. I'm thinking around 70% equity for a raise in a HU situation (assuming the other three drop, in fairness there's usually at least one tag-along w/ a gutshot, TP, 2ndP). After adding slightly more detail, and reduced the random back-raise potential, these were the results:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - AsKh9d
PLAYER_1 (AA,KK)@100,(AxKx)@65,(AxKy,QQ)@40,(AxQx-AxTx,KxQx-KxTx,QxJx,QxTx,JJ-66,JxTx)@15,(Ax9x,Tx9x)@5
PLAYER_2 20%
PLAYER_3 20%
PLAYER_4 20%
PLAYER_5 99
600000 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity

 Equity %Wins Hi %Ties Hi %Wins Hi CountTies Hi Count 
(AA,KK)@100,(AxKx)@6...23.3305%23.0967%0.4808%1385802885 
20%5.8943%5.5590%0.6882%333544129 
20%5.8472%5.5053%0.7025%330324215 
20%5.8524%5.5067%0.7097%330404258 
9959.0756%59.0753%0.0005%3544523 

Also, if there's a tag-along then your raise either gets another bet from both, or you get murdered by the supposed AA-KK. It looks like a raise with a tag-along otf to me. But, with an "older woman" (or my adjustment to older woman), then the equity is not enough to justify a raise in a HU situation. I gave the 3 peeps in middle position 20% of all hands, though detail can be added to their ranges (not likely to have their top ten percent and are from their 10%-15%), but don't know how to do that quickly.

And, discounting random candidates entirely in low limit is, I think, is as wrong as over-counting random hands with an elderly woman.

Last edited by leavesofliberty; 06-29-2017 at 01:11 PM.
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Old 06-29-2017, 01:08 PM   #1449
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
FWIW I posted this in the O8 forum, but I had hundreds of hands versus a guy in the game and his first preflop 3 bet ever was with T322. People do weird crap.
There's still a lot of hold'em-esque play in O8 though, so they play pre-flop worse in O8, imhe.
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Old 06-29-2017, 02:26 PM   #1450
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Re: Pre flop check up posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
FWIW I posted this in the O8 forum, but I had hundreds of hands versus a guy in the game and his first preflop 3 bet ever was with T322. People do weird crap.
He probably flopped A45.
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