Originally Posted by mntndrew
Range estimates:
fish limper: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T3s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 4s,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o
TAG ISO'er: 66+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+
two standard loose passives:
99-22,AJs-A2s,K8s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T6s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,43 s,AJo-A7o,K9o+,Q9o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o
LAG caller:
66-22,A9s-A2s,K9s-K2s,Q9s-Q5s,J9s-J7s,T6s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A9o-A2o,KTo-K9o,Q9o+,J9o+,T8o+,98o,87o
BB calling range:
66-22,ATs-A2s,KTs-K2s,QTs-Q2s,J2s+,T2s+,95s+,84s+,73s+,62s+,52s+,43s,ATo-A2o,KJo-K2o,Q4o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o
Odds when BB calls and limper calls: ~8:1
SB equity against above ranges:
AQo: 16.5%
AJo: 14.5%
ATo: 13%
A9o: 10.9%
A2o: 10.2%
KQo: 16%
KJo: 13.9%
QJo: 13.4%
QTo: 12.6%
JTo: 12.3%
T9o: 11%
KJs: 17.8%
KTs: 16.6%
K5s: 14%
QJs: 17%
Q5s: 13.6%
J6s: 12.5%
T6s: 12.7%
T5s: 12%
95s: 12.4%
92s: 11%
For kicks, 54o: 13.2% (hey, there are times we're not dominated!)
Before running this my gut would have been that T9o would be the first offsuit hand to easily hit the muck, and I'd strongly consider folding the weaker offsuit broadways QJo/QTo/JTo. I'd be OK with calling a lot of gapped hands that can make both a straight and a flush like maybe as low as J7s, but I wouldn't even consider a hand like Q5s.
Now I'm left wondering: we're most often putting in 1/9 of the money with a call (and in the model at least having the BB fold more than he 3-bets). So should we be looking at calling all of these 12-16% hands, or are the costs of being out of position such that we want to cut out a lot of the low end?