Quote:
Originally Posted by DougL
So you have a range and you stipulate that 100% of that range will be bet on 3 streets, so you're telling us that you know the whole range from PF on. It sounds like an excellent time to pull out equilab and work out A, K, Q, and J high showdown equity on a bunch of runouts.
Wow. That was eye-opening.
I'll start with the case where UTG will fold if I 3-bet.
With AKo, if the board runs out 3579J (about the safest board I could come up with) we have 39% equity. Change AKo to A2o and it drops down to 25%. Change A2o to KQo and it drops to 16%.
A2o on a 2579J board changes our equity from 25% to 44%. A7o on that same board bumps it up to 57%. K7, Q7 and T7 don't change that equity much.
With AKo, the scariest board I could come up with is QJ986. AKo has only 22% equity on that board.
Now I'll look at UTG coming along for the ride. Let's face it, a 70/10 probably isn't going to just give up his limp just because someone 3-bet.
AKo now has 4% (!!!) equity against two 70% ranges on the QJ986 board. It has only 14% equity on the 3579J board. On QQ963 it has 26% equity. On QQ933 it has 20% equity (I was expecting it to have more equity on a double-paired board since it's harder for a villain to have a pair. Is it because we're chopping with more aces?)
A3o has 17% equity on the 3579J board. A7o has 31% equity.
I don't want to tl;dr this, but the bottom line is I really thought that 3-betting and showing down any ace or king would be profitable in this situation. Boy was I wrong.
I think it would be much safer to limit my 3-betting range to something like 66+, A8so+, K8so+, Q8so+, 89sc+, T8s1g+. That's probably conservative in that situation, but all of those hands should be reasonably easy to play postflop, where I'm showing down a pair of 8s or better unless either the board or the villains (or both) tell me I'm beat.
On top of that, if I spike a pair, especially a high pair, I'm probably putting in a raise along the way that both villains will call with a worse hand, so I'm probably going to win more when I win than I lose when I lose.
If I don't make a pair or a lot of equity by the turn I'm probably getting out.
Hope that made any sense at all.