I'd call. I'd consider 3 betting if HJ was the spot.

I thought it was a fairly easy call, but if I win, I have to post kill again, so I wonder if that changes things

Truth.... I was UTG+1. (and no cap...only 3 raises)

I just wanted assurance my equity math was on target. Villain's first call was not a surprise as he likes to play kills. Didn't make sense to see villain call the second time taking two to the teeth from a nit like me.

aces cracked (can't imagine you could've figured that out....)

Go back in time and fold the first time.

Hijack opens, folds to me in the BB with J3hh

Defend?


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What's Hijack's RFI for that position?

the button raises 44% (35/20 in all), 100% conbet against both blinds, doesnt like folding if being raised; i with Q8o SB; BB passive station will call 80% if i call
call is bad(?), 3bet - bad, fold - bad.
plan?
what about K8o

Fold both

Ya I mean 44% is tight for a button open (I'm fairly tight and this is lower than my RFI on the button), and if someone 3 bet me from the SB with Q8o, I'd probably start classifying them as a TAGfish. It's going to be doing poorly versus a 44% open (like 42% equity maybe), and it'll be OOP. And the BB can potentially come along.

K8o is more defensible. I'd want some fold equity before including it in my 3 bet range though.


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I literally can't remember the last time I was on the button in a live game and it was folded around to me.

I will openly, freely admit that I haven't read all 82 pages of this thread, so I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed.

One spot where I don't feel clear is when it's acceptable to cold-call with a speculative hand in a multi-way pot at a prototypical SSHE table. Like say HJ raises, CO coldcalls, we're on the button with a hand like 22-99, 54s-QJs, Axs or K8s-KJs, and we're sure both blinds will call (so for all practical purposes we're guaranteed a 5-way pot with position).

Most of the tables I play at play so passively postflop that it's next to impossible to recoup enough of the preflop investment when I have to pay 2 bets to see a flop. I get that when you have a hand like 76s you kind of WANT it to be passive so you can see the turn and river cheaply, but by the time all of the cards are out the pot is too small to truly recoup the doubled investment.

I've done the "math" in another thread that calculates how big the final pot has to be to make coldcalling profitable, I'll try to track it down and post it.

But erst the while, if anyone has any thoughts on what to do with these speculative hands in position after a raise, or after a raise and a cold-call, or after a raise and two cold-calls.

Regarding the above scenario.

I tend to 3 bet the top of these ranges if I think I can get this down to myself, HJ, and CO. I would 3bet 77s+ for sure and maybe 66s+.Basically, If I think aggressive action can give me an additional way to win the pot I will take it. I 3 bet QJs and maybe JTs. I call with all other pairs and suited connectors down to 56s....I think there comes a point where the playability of a hand becomes too low. 45s sounds like that point for me.

This is just what I have been doing. I don't play a lot anymore so it's possible that new pre flop policies have been put in place that I am not aware of. It's also possible I have fallen into bad habits or misapplied lessons learned.

I am assuming the HJ is raising 20 ish%.

I have never had a great grasp for how low to go with suited connectors and Kxs types etc. In this situation I think calling 56s+ K9s+ sounds about right. I may be playing too tight though. When I first started playing the game about 20 years ago these ranges would have been much tighter. I suspect now the ranges may be looser than what I play.

Thanks mongidig. I found the post where I'd done the math a few years ago:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...4&postcount=36

My estimate, based on the math in that post, is that you're confident that you're going to collect 8BB+ EACH time you flop a set if you cold-call pre with a pocket pair. If 5 people see the flop for 2 bets, 4 off them call a bet on the flop, 2 on the turn and 1 on the river, that's 9BB. Obviously if other villains in the hand are willing to raise pairs and draws, getting to that 8BB is that much easier.

I didn't do the math for cold-calling with hands like 87s-QJs or A8s+. It's pretty complicated since a lot of the time when we flop one pair, we have something to go along with our 5-out draw to 2 pair or trips like a gutshot or flush draw. Now, in stark contrast to when we flop a set, we DON'T want villains in the hand who are willing to raise - we want to make our hand as cheaply as possible, which in turn makes it harder to grow the pot.

I'll take a stab at estimates with the following math-simplifying assumptions:
- We'll say we'll flop either a pair, a flush draw or an OESD about 40% of the time.
- we make a hand that holds up (whether it's two pair, trips, a straight or a flush) when we do see a flop 30% of the time that we see one (30% of 40% is 12%).
- when we see the flop but miss our hand, we put in 1 sb on the flop and 1BB on the turn

so 60% of the time we put 1BB in preflop and fold the flop.
28% of the time we put in 2.5BB and fold the river.
60 + 28 * 2.5 = 60 +70 = 130
So for the 12 times out of 100 we're assuming we'll win the hand, we need to average pot sizes of 130/12 = 10.8BB. That's VERY high! Table conditions need to be VERY optimistic to think that's going to happen very often.

Feedback on my (over)analysis welcome.

I’d call all the hands listed in dals post.

I’m also 3 betting with a range very similar to whatever I put the opener on.

You missed a lot of potential high card and one pair winning hands in your analysis.

Raise in both cases. Both are net profitable.

The raise in 1 may shake off the BB, increasing the net payoff.

So how could I adjust these assumptions? My thoughts/suggestions in bold:

- We'll say we'll flop either a pair, a flush draw or an OESD about 40% of the time.
- we make a hand that holds up (whether it's high card, one pairtwo pair, trips, a straight or a flush) when we do see a flop 30% of the time that we see one (30% of 40% is 12%).
- when we see the flop but miss our hand, we put in 1 sb on the flop and 1BB on the turnAbout 30% of the time we'll also call a bet on the river, i.e. when we have a top pair hand facing one bet that's not the best hand but is too strong to fold given the conditions.

I'm not looking forward to revising the math, but if you have suggestions for revising these assumptions I'll take a crack at it.

How much would you adjust the 30% estimate in the second bullet? How often are we going to coldcall with one of those hands and actually make a best hand? (edit: in the games I play everybody else folds a negligible amount of the time)

You don't mention checkdowns, which happen at non zero frequency and add to your winrate.

15/30, kill on so 20/40

I’m the kill in the sb (20), mp who is reasonable raises, Tilty button 3 bets. Do I call here getting 4ish to 1? I have 33

I would 4 bet or fold.

Never cold calling on SB there even as kill in the SB.

fold

I don’t really get the four bet. It doesn’t really buy me any fold equity later and the BB is going to come in for 3 or 4 or not.

We are getting the wrong price to setmine, and four-betting is just lighting money on fire. (Three raise cap, or four here? It's even worse if one of the aggressors five-bets us.)

I don’t like having to post the kill in the SB, so I tend to tighten up a bit when I have the leg up in the BB. Posting the kill on the BTN isn’t so bad, so I play normally when I have the leg up in the SB.

In this particular spot, I’d lean toward folding. It’s definitely NOT a 4 bet or fold spot. In fact, you can make a case for calling everything with which you intend to play. If that were my strategy, I’d still fold 33 even though you could argue that calling all pairs is +EV.

22-44 I’d fold. It’s starts to get more interesting around 55 or 66.

Four only. It’s not really a set mind per se, it’s just that the button doesn’t need much here.