Oops. Thanks for catching that. So now we are making $1.66 in immediate equity. A good pro should be making the play. However, even you have pointed out why the hot and cold equity is not the last word on playing these hands.

I suspect that these hands have a high enough noise-to-signal ratio that it would be hard to tell if someone is able to play them profitably. If you are a pro, an aspiring pro, or want to test/improve yourself, by all means play these hands. If you don't play as well post-flop, or are simply a recreational player, then give them a pass.

You realize that $1.66/hand in a 8/16 game is > than 10BB/100 (that's BB = BIG BET). That's more than you win, long term. You're giving up more than your entire win rate to hand-wave away something related to your so-called "only a good pro should play". This is also post rake and tip -- you're talking a hand that you won and deducting both in your preflop considerations. That's super pessimistic, as well.

Your argument is basically "even though the hand is clearly profitable, I chose to ignore that fact and not play it". It isn't compelling. Show me how I lose 10BB/100 playing this hand post flop, and then we've gotten to breakeven.

e_holle, this is how I see these spots. Play them because it is profitable and folding would be bad.

Villain raises in MP, based on history I felt he has AT-AK, AA-77, KQ,KJ,KTs, QJs. Villian has a tendency to always bet flop, turn and river when he's the PFR. BTN calls, SB folds, I call in BB with Q3o getting 5 to 1. I plan to call the villain down with a 3 or Q if the cards run out Q or below. I'm only planning on calling down with a 3 if the BTN folds. Worse case it looks like I'll have 25% equity by the river. Thoughts?

table]ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: 239JT
[/table]

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Qx3y	23.66%	141,473	1,032
AA-77,AT-AK,Ax9x,KQ,KJ,KxTx,QxJx	76.34%	457,495	1,032

I admit I struggle a lot with these spots. Seems like I always make less when ahead and lose more when behind (OOP/RIO easily-dominated hand).

Am I giving up a lot of equity folding Q3o routinely against EP raisers?

Also, rake considerations matter, which are dependent on stakes right?

Doesn't SSHE recommend folding pretty snugly against EP/MP raises?

Baddish regular opens UTG 6 handed, online 5 table. Stats unavailable on my phone but he has been fairly active.

Spewy LAG 3 bets HJ. Iirc, his three bet stat is 22-23. He seems to three bet indiscriminately as well. Early cold capped KQs from the SB after I three bet an UTG open.

Decent BTN who is well aware of how HJ is playing caps. SB calls them all cold.

Hero has A J BB. Hero...?

I'm drunk and am easily confused on which hand we're talking about, but I'd muck 43s and call the other two. Id call 65s though.

Busboy just dumped my near empty Glenlivet, but server got me a new one. Turned a double into a triple like Dee Gordon. Winning.

I would call. Especially with all the bad and spewy descriptions.

I cap it

Betting is capped already FWIW, but I guess you're in agreement on entering the pot as well.

I thought I'd need something like 5.5:1 to get in there w/ this hand, which fwiw could easily be dominated by BTN. But the 5.67:1 I'd effectively get was too attractive to pass up w/ this hand.

Obviously if it went limp/raise/3!/c3c I'd give serious consideration towards capping.

Sorry, I misread the opening action. I think calling the cap from the bb is fine given odds and description of the villains.

I open early, fish calls next in, tight guy calls next in, lady who has no basic concepts of LHE, somewhere just above knowing what beats what and hasn't raised or 3bet in the 2 hours I"ve played, she 3bets. What are we capping here?

Has she seen people win big pots by raising, 3 betting, and or capping not so great hands? I ask because at that point in player development, she's probably looking for ideas. So if she saw someone capping QJs and taking down a huge pot, she probably thinks that's a good way to play that hand.

So if the game is generally pretty aggressive, then I'd cap somewhat wider than if I was the only one seen 3 betting in the past few hours.

The back of my hand says to cap AKo, AQs, JJ+, but my hand has been wrong before.

Based on you'r description, I would say JJ+. I would just call AK, AQs until I have more info. I'd play it cautiously, especially OOP, until I have seen a larger sample of what she's capable of.

Is there anyone in the hand who can hand-read at all? I'm kind of reading from your description that you feel like the lady has QQ+ or some other insane range, is that right? Like has she already limped AKo or AQs?

without additional information, KK and AA. villain: QQ+

That might be very slightly true but good sshe preflop strategy should look overwhelming today like it did ten years ago.

The man is named Flash Gordon.

True story. Throughout all baseball history a players total stolen bases is almost perfectly correlated to his total triples. The glaring exception? Ricky Henderson. He never stretched the double into a triple and instead just stole third on the first pitch.

+1 Figuring it out on your own will be infinitely more valuable

It's the commerce 40 most regs hand read just fine.

I mean if we put our "doesn't know where the raise button is" lady on QQ+, what can we raise for value? Maybe the passengers who cold call fluff up our equity, but the only hands I'm sure are profitable that we started with UTG (early?) are KK+. I don't even know if DosXX has a JTs or 98s to get out of line with. I'm also not sure how much SD equity I get capping wide. If I have AA, I feel sad that I miss out on 4 bets by not capping and I'm not sure I get that back later. If people hand read decently, my range started narrow and my value range against her is letting people see my hands. I'm not sure you cap anything. Maybe you hope that one of the passengers spite caps?

I agree with this if she's actually that tight.

Dos texted me the hand and I said something like jacks+ which is probably too wide. That said it was two live hours with izzy and mr lee so she'd only been dealt about 50 cards so far.

This is something that even one data point could help with. Like if she turned over one big pair at some point we'd know what's going on

8/16 full kill is on.

It's folded to me in LoJack. I have QJo. The killer is on the button and is never folding pre flop. He is somewhat agro pre and does have a 3 bet button but isn't getting too far out of hand. He is pretty sticky post. The players in between are tight. The blinds are tight.

This is normally a standard open for me. Should I tighten up a bit here or proceed as usual?

the action goes in order now there has been a raise. I should have a tight image.

I think you should open a bit looser than normal there