You do have the Ace blockers, so that chops out a lot of overcard combos and I guess leaves more overpair combos. Can you estimate some BB/UTG ranges so we can see how many overpairs they actually have?

I'm not sure they should check-raise JJ- on the flop actually, HJ's range is what, like 88+?

I think you should just raise flop.

Hand range for HJ is like 99-AA on flop donk.

Either way, love the thought process but being against 2 uncapped ranges aren't the worst and In terms of balance, seems tough to not have AA as part of bucket of hands to raise flop vs HJ donk bet in a 4 bet preflop 4cwaysink.

Would call turn as played.

The ace of diamonds is in hero's hand.

Seems like betting diamond overcards would be a bad play by the pro anyway.

I actually mix it up here. Sometimes I'll raise, sometimes I'll call.

The big reasons why I lean towards call here is this:

1) Opponent knows your range is like AK/TT+. Maybe 99/AQ creeps in because this is California after all, but the two openers shouldn't be very wide.
2) You want to get peels from the guy who is the likely spot in the hand. Him calling here w/ Ax, KQ, whatever is a win for you.
3) By raising, you're narrowing your range immediately to KK+, maybe QQ+, and your opponents will play accordingly.
4) OR could also xc with a range that's dominated by your AA, or xr his own QQ+
5) Since you have the rep of being a fastplayer in this spot, throwing in an expert slowplay is actually effective.

So yeah if I thought I was against players who would go way too many bets w/ JJ on this flop given preflop, I'd just raise now, but that doesn't seem to be the read we have here. So might as well just call.

Edit: I did notice that your capping range here is a little wider than mine and includes the 99 and some more flush draws. That makes me lean a bit more towards raise to try and induce action, since you have the Ad and it's unlikely you're against a flush draw for that reason. I'm fine w/ either play here though.

FWIW I know avoidthe9to5 has discussed throwing his entire continuing range against a cold 3 bet preflop into his "3 to the face" range.

I haven't done the requisite work on how I can win money taking three to the face w/ 66 or KJs or what have you, though, so I just don't do it and cap my narrower continuing range like an obedient 2+2 nit.

I don't even remember who the big blind was, so he was...average? Gun is probably pretty normal, he's an on the tight side prop. 66+, JTs+? Something like that. BB I have no earthly idea but it's 4 cold from the 3 best players in the game....it's some describable hand.

And yes, I have blockers!

If I had TT here and it went bet/raise in front of me I'd instantly start calling down. If it went bet/call in front of me I'd definitely thing about raising.

I'm not considering that. I play in games where I happily cold cap 54s here with one more player in this pot routinely (perhaps not here up against actual winners).

I need to visit Los Angeles.

I think the consensus here seems to be "it's at least close"

I just called the turn, got the sigh over call from UTG. River some card they both check I bet they both call MHIG and everyone is a little confused.

Everyone solid. Nothing to see here.

Capping in this scenaro with 54s would be spew.

Capping 54s when on the button against a couple laggy raises and a few callers is a good gamble.

Interesting. But if he did that, then there's still no extra balancing because everything is in one category anyway. It's just a different category.

I have mixed feelings about that. I can see some merit, but I don't know if it's meritorious enough. Maybe against better players where you need a little more deception value.

I would think the ideal time to deploy this strategy is when the guys who have entered the pot are good players, and the players left to act are weaker players who may enter the pot way too liberally once there's a cold caller already in.

I definitely miss having avoidthe9to5 around, if anything because having the educated contrarian opinion is great.


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66 JTs is on the tight side???

Let's say the range is accurate. That puts HJ at something like 88 QJs or something and you should definitely not be capping 99-88.

BB's preflop range is uncapped, as is UTG's. It's not unreasonable to expect flop gets action anyway but you've already got the narrowest range of the 4. Your range is dominated by overpairs and I see only a mild case for balance (that is, I don't think you can have both a value raising and a balanced calling range given how few hands you should have - 3 combos of 99 is too many to balance whatever nondiamond overcards you would oyherwise be calling - you should be raising diamonds to balance your overpairs if any balance needs to happen).

You somehow got TT and A9 to put in 7 bets each postflop with one pair, so... nice hand?

Late to the party but offering 18:1 to the players behind you concerns underpairs, backdoor "spades" (unspecified in OP), and singleton diamonds. Backdoor straight draws could be a concern on other boards but not here given the action.

Pocket Pairs:
22-kk!(44,33,99) is 54 possible combos.
66-kk!(44,33,99) is 42 and
88-kk!(44,33,99) is 30.

Singleton Diamonds:
(AxKy-Ax8y,KxQy-Kx9y,QxJy-Qx9y,JxTy,Jx9y,Tx9y):d is 68 combos.
(AxKy-AxTy,KxQy-KxTy,QxJy-QxTy):d is 38 combos

Backdoor spades:
(AxKx-Ax5x,KxQx-Kx9x,QxJx-Qx9x,JxTx,Jx9x,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x):s is 15 combos
AsKs-As8s,KsQs-Ks9s,QsJs-Qs9s,JsTs,Js9s,Ts9s is 11.

So having the singleton diamonds drawing dead when they're proportionally quite large seems like a good reason to call this flop/spot. Letting some of the PPs that could outdraw you drive up the price for the entire school also seems like a good reason.

And it all worked out! Wheeee!

It has occurred to me that by not having a capping range I could play even more hands. I know a winning pro who does not cap the BB and usually doesn't cap 3 ways after being the initial raiser. I don't think I play against people who are good enough to merit such treatment.

I had 'em cold decked way worse than that, I think. Like they probably had all four queens or something.

I didn't quite digest all of this, but yes having the ace of diamonds in my hand somehow is an extremely important detail in this hand.

Is utg or hj the one known as cdc? Do either of them play like cdc?

If yes, then I think that there are wheel draws in play that need to be accounted for in the analysis.

If no, carry on.

It was not CDC.

I dunno, I think it's probably fine, but if you 4bet pre and then station on the flop and the turn, it seems pretty easy to narrow your hand down to exactly AA-QQ.

Well i mean....there are the diamond draws.