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Old 01-02-2017, 09:44 AM   #1
mongidig
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Overcard peel

8/16. 9 handed.

5 players limp, I raise AcKh in BB and all call.

Qs9sQd..I check, UTG(new to table) bets, next player calls, HJ calls(loose passive) Button calls (loose passive) SB (lag) calls

Do you peel here? We are getting great price and ending the betting but this board isn't great obviously.
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Old 01-02-2017, 09:47 AM   #2
6MaxLHE
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Re: Overcard peel

Fold. Q is def out there and we have no spade.
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Old 01-02-2017, 11:49 AM   #3
Crispix
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Re: Overcard peel

You're closing the action getting 15:1. Your odds to hit a pair is 7:1 so getting nearly double that (accounting for rake), should give enough of a parlay to continue, even though keeping in mind that board is paired and you have limited back door draws. I'd call the flop and see what happens ott.
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Old 01-02-2017, 12:39 PM   #4
chillrob
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Re: Overcard peel

Even if no one has a Q here, it looks like someone definitely has a flush draw, and someone else probably has JT, which would leave you with two outs on the turn, vulnerable to many rivers. Easy dump.
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Old 01-02-2017, 01:19 PM   #5
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Re: Overcard peel

What are our chances of winning? What price are we getting to call this bet, closing the action?
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:08 PM   #6
jesse8888
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Re: Overcard peel

I call without considering a fold
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Old 01-06-2017, 09:54 PM   #7
bipolarbearclaw
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Re: Overcard peel

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
Even if no one has a Q here, it looks like someone definitely has a flush draw, and someone else probably has JT, which would leave you with two outs on the turn, vulnerable to many rivers. Easy dump.
nailed it. you'd be better off chasing a small pocket pair like 33 here. Better chance of winning the pot.
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Old 11-08-2018, 11:52 AM   #8
mongidig
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Re: Overcard peel

For those who say this is a flop call will you explain why please?
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Old 11-08-2018, 02:44 PM   #9
Howard Beale
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Re: Overcard peel

They're planning on hitting the Powerball to fund their retirement?
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:06 AM   #10
Aaron W.
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Re: Overcard peel

I'm okay with a peel, but it's one of those "closing the action in a big pot" peels. I think it's way too pessimistic to believe that someone absolutely must have a queen, and even more so to think that there is also a flush draw and exactly JT out there giving you only two outs.

Don't go nuts if you hit your pair, and don't feel that you have to see the showdown at any price if you do. But if you hit a pair on the turn and paid no more than one bet on the turn and river to see the showdown, you're probably doing okay.
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Old 11-09-2018, 11:00 AM   #11
gr26
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Re: Overcard peel

After check-call the hand is pretty much face up. What defends AK? KJs... J10s? 10-10?
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:16 PM   #12
Biggle10
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Re: Overcard peel

I think I'm in the fold camp.
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Old 11-10-2018, 01:47 AM   #13
gr26
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Re: Overcard peel

Quote:
Originally Posted by gr26 View Post
After check-call the hand is pretty much face up. What defends AK? KJs... J10s? 10-10?
actually i think the perceived range is AK only.
Even zero level players "understand" some plays. Because they do the same.
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Old 11-10-2018, 02:01 PM   #14
Aaron W.
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Re: Overcard peel

Quote:
Originally Posted by gr26 View Post
actually i think the perceived range is AK only.
Even zero level players "understand" some plays. Because they do the same.
If an ace falls on the turn and it gets checked through, then you bet the river, you should still expect to be called by worse hands even though they "know" what you have.
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Old 12-26-2018, 08:26 AM   #15
mongidig
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Re: Overcard peel

Lets say another 9 hits the turn and now the UTG checks, HJ bets, Button calls....Should we call?
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Old 12-26-2018, 11:56 AM   #16
Aaron W.
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Re: Overcard peel

Quote:
Originally Posted by mongidig View Post
Lets say another 9 hits the turn and now the UTG checks, HJ bets, Button calls....Should we call?
No.
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Old 12-27-2018, 01:36 AM   #17
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Re: Overcard peel

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aaron W. View Post
I think it's way too pessimistic to believe that someone absolutely must have a queen, and even more so to think that there is also a flush draw and exactly JT out there giving you only two outs.
Ok, its been a few years, so bear with me...

Isn't it equally optimistic to assume that all of our 3 opponents must have some combination of a 9, medium PP, or a back door straight/flush draw?

I'm not sure how to count combos of hands that contain one J, one 10, one spade, one 9, or a medium PP VS. combos of a Q, J/10, or 2 spades, but I'm guessing that the second group isn't small enough to value our hand at the 3 outs I want to call the 16 to 1 immediate. Especially considering how vulnerable our hand is on the river. (RIO?)

At game speed I probably call, but I think a fold is probably better.
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Old 12-27-2018, 02:29 AM   #18
Aaron W.
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Re: Overcard peel

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Originally Posted by cooleye View Post
Ok, its been a few years, so bear with me...

Isn't it equally optimistic to assume that all of our 3 opponents must have some combination of a 9, medium PP, or a back door straight/flush draw?

I'm not sure how to count combos of hands that contain one J, one 10, one spade, one 9, or a medium PP VS. combos of a Q, J/10, or 2 spades, but I'm guessing that the second group isn't small enough to value our hand at the 3 outs I want to call the 16 to 1 immediate. Especially considering how vulnerable our hand is on the river. (RIO?)
If you mean specifically that range, then yes.

However, there are lots more combinations of things that we're doing okay against (with respect to number of outs) than there are combinations of things where we're not. You've really got to force it to bring yourself down to below 3 outs. To get an "exact" number of outs, you would have to go through a hand range exercise or do a quick simulation.

But to do this off-the-cuff:

The biggest concern is the frequency with which someone has a Q. In that case, we basically have zero outs and that's a bad situation to be in. It's definitely possible. But a single bet and callers isn't enough to make me believe it's so. Let's just say this is the case 25% of the time.

Against other ranges, at best we have 6 outs (all pair outs), though we sometimes have only 4 outs (if the flush draw is out there), and occasionally 2-3 outs (against nightmare scenarios). A hand waving number would be like 4.5 outs, which is taking quite a strong reduction for reverse implied odds.

So if there's something like a 25% chance of having 0 outs and a 75% chance of having 4.5 outs, then we would have something like 3.3 outs. And we still have odds to call.
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Old 12-27-2018, 02:49 AM   #19
chillrob
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Re: Overcard peel

That's 3.3 outs to a hand with strong RIO on the river. Plus on the turn you're in early position so have to bet out into a large field or check.
And if you check, it will usually be bet when you're beat and be checked through when you're ahead.
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Old 12-27-2018, 02:50 AM   #20
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Re: Overcard peel

Just saw that this hand was from almost two years ago! Results would be interesting, if they're remembered.
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Old 12-27-2018, 03:01 AM   #21
Aaron W.
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Re: Overcard peel

Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob View Post
That's 3.3 outs to a hand with strong RIO on the river.
Yes. That was already accounted for.

Quote:
Plus on the turn you're in early position so have to bet out into a large field or check.
You're checking the turn no matter what card falls. Let the action come to you. You have the best position relative to the flop aggressor, and that's significant. That's one of the reasons why you should be more prone to peeling when closing the action compared to when there is still potential action behind you.

Quote:
And if you check, it will usually be bet when you're beat and be checked through when you're ahead.
Okay. But even if it's checked through, you're not dependent upon implied odds to make this a call. And you don't have to show this down if the action heats up.

If you hit a pair and got to showdown for exactly one bet, I think you would be in great shape. If you get there for exactly two bets, I think you are in a marginally profitable position because of the pot size. If you get to showdown for three bets, you've done screwed up bigly.
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